The Hindenburg Five

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks:

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The stock market has now had a cluster of five Hindenburg Omens in recent weeks. (Source: SubuTrade)

A Hindenburg Omen triggers when the market is in an uptrend but shows deep internal division — specifically, when a high number of stocks simultaneously hit 52-week highs and lows.

As the name implies, a cluster of Hindenburgs is not a good sign. Typically, after five, you can expect either a selloff or an extended absence of new highs.

For now, the sideways grind that continues to impact tech and high-growth plays. Defensive stocks are catching a bid.

“Investors should be cautious going into March and April, which tend to be slow months for the market anyway,” notes Andrew Packer over at our Grey Swan Trading Fraternity. After three straight bull market years, this spring is making traders particularly nervous.

Andrew has positioned that Grey Swan trading portfolio with a “hedge” trade on a broad market drop. And, at the same time, is focusing on sectors that are on the receiving end of money leaving tech, most notably natural resources and energy.

(For details on the new AI-powered Grey Swan Indicator we debuted last month for entry and exit points on these trades, see: Trump’s State of the Union SHOCK. One trade in particular we’ve timed to President Trump’s State of the Union Address tomorrow, February 24 at 6 p.m.)

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week takes us from space to hard assets in the vault! Live and on the scene in Willowbrook, Chicago.

Please join us while we visit with Wayde Milas inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.

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The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks:

Turn Your Images On

The stock market has now had a cluster of five Hindenburg Omens in recent weeks. (Source: SubuTrade)

A Hindenburg Omen triggers when the market is in an uptrend but shows deep internal division — specifically, when a high number of stocks simultaneously hit 52-week highs and lows.

As the name implies, a cluster of Hindenburgs is not a good sign. Typically, after five, you can expect either a selloff or an extended absence of new highs.

For now, the sideways grind that continues to impact tech and high-growth plays. Defensive stocks are catching a bid.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week takes us from space to hard assets in the vault! Live and on the scene in Willowbrook, Chicago.

Turn Your Images On

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The Supreme Court voted 6–3 to block President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the Constitution grants tariff authority to Congress alone. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented.

The case centered on Trump’s 10% global tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs layered on select trading partners. Oral arguments were heard in November. The Court concluded that IEEPA did not authorize such broad tariff power.

A concurrent research paper from the New York Fed concluded that American consumers bear most of the tariff cost.