It’s pretty clear from the leaderboard year-to-date that investors are moving their money out of AI stocks into real-world “stuff” – the energy and commodities, natural that are the building blocks of an economy:
Year-to-date, energy and materials have led markets higher. (Source: Yardeni Research)
At the opposite end of the spectrum, heavy risk-on sectors of tech and financial stocks are getting sold. We’re reading this as confirmation to the trend that set up in late 2025.
Historically, energy is the last sector to rally during a bull market cycle. Financial stocks, on the other hand, tend to lead the market out of a crisis.
We haven’t yet seen a flight to safety into “risk-free” assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. So, for now, no crisis. The market is allocating capital efficiently. You will do well to recognize, as traders say, the “change in leadership.”
~ Addison
P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live, we turn to a corner of the capital markets usually reserved for well-connected investors: the pre-IPO space. Companies like SpaceX and Anduril have caught our attention as investments, but they’re not officially publicly-traded.
Our friend Matt Milner over at Crowdability has created a way to get access to these companies before they go public – and at the valuations where institutional investors are able to invest today.
So mark your calendar for this Thursday at 12 p.m., ET. More details to come!
