The Great NATO Caper

President Trump made it to the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, in spite of an “electrical problem” forcing Air Force One to return to Andrews Air Force Base here in Maryland one hour into the flight.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

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Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.

With the administration’s push for “Complete and Total control” (Truth Social) of Greenland, we don’t expect the attendees in Davos to offer much of a mange tak, merci, danke or muchas gracias to the US delegation. The status quo has worked just fine for them since 1990.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

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Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

Turn Your Images On

Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

Turn Your Images On

Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

With the United States conducting what the Pentagon politely calls an “operation” against Iranian military infrastructure, markets have had every reason to be panicky. Instead, the past week delivered something subtler…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.

The Federal Reserve can print money, but it can’t print oil. As energy prices surge and supply disruptions loom, the central bank may find itself with limited tools to fight inflation driven by real-world shortages.

The plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would leave the U.S. with its smallest stockpile of emergency oil in more than four decades. And with tensions simmering globally, the shrinking reserve raises uncomfortable questions about how prepared the U.S. is for the next supply disruption…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.