The Great NATO Caper

President Trump made it to the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, in spite of an “electrical problem” forcing Air Force One to return to Andrews Air Force Base here in Maryland one hour into the flight.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

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Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.

With the administration’s push for “Complete and Total control” (Truth Social) of Greenland, we don’t expect the attendees in Davos to offer much of a mange tak, merci, danke or muchas gracias to the US delegation. The status quo has worked just fine for them since 1990.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

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Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

Turn Your Images On

Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

Turn Your Images On

Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.

Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.

Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.