The Great NATO Caper

President Trump made it to the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, in spite of an “electrical problem” forcing Air Force One to return to Andrews Air Force Base here in Maryland one hour into the flight.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

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Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.

With the administration’s push for “Complete and Total control” (Truth Social) of Greenland, we don’t expect the attendees in Davos to offer much of a mange tak, merci, danke or muchas gracias to the US delegation. The status quo has worked just fine for them since 1990.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

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Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

One item we’re confident the President will drill his European counterparts on while at the World Economic Forum in Davos is how they’ve benefited from having the U.S. as a defense partner:

Turn Your Images On

Eurozone spending on social programs far exceeds its defence spending (Source: Ifo Institute)

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:

First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.

They both are in sharp contrast to Trump’s foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.

This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.

We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.

Turn Your Images On

Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!