“The decline and fall of a civilization is barely noticed by most of its citizens.”
-James Cook
September 4, 2025 — The news yesterday included an extraordinary event in the Southern Caribbean. ABC:
US military strikes alleged drug boat, Trump says, ’11 terrorists killed’
The president said the alleged drug boat came out of Venezuela.
If we knew so much about the boat – who was on it, where it came from, what it was carrying — way down near South America…why not wait for it to arrive in North America…and ask some questions? Who was it going to meet? What it was really doing? Why not find out?
And since when was commerce, between willing adults, punishable by death? Since when did the US military become judge, jury and executioner?
There is surely ‘more to the story.’ Today, we speculate about what it is.. Is there really a ‘narco-terrorist’ organization known as the ‘Tren de Aragua?’ Or does it exist in the same magic world as ‘weapons of mass destruction?’ Dave DeCamp:
The group the US claims Maduro heads, the so-called Cartel of the Suns, is a term used to describe a network of Venezuelan government and military officials allegedly involved in drug trafficking, but it does not actually exist as an organization. Maduro and other Latin American leaders have denied the US claims. The US military deployment to the Southern Caribbean appears to really be another push for regime change in Venezuela after the failed attempt during the first Trump administration.
Yesterday, we noticed that the feds seem to be becoming more desperate…or more underhanded…in their never-ending effort to separate The People from their money. Instead of direct taxation, they resort to deficits, money-printing, inflation, and tariffs.
This is typical of degenerate governments. As the burden of the feds’ policies increases, the resistance to paying for them also mounts. This is easily understandable. Take the case of Social Security. The first participants were eager. They put in trivial amounts…and reaped big gains. The population and its productivity were both increasing.
But now the native population is falling…and the immigrant population is being deported. Productivity growth is also in a slump. Money Talks News:
Productivity Drop Signals Potential Economic Challenges Under New Tariffs
US productivity declined 0.8% in Q1 2025, marking the first drop since 2022.
Social Security is no longer such a good deal. Imagine, for example, the difference between paying into the social security fund for the last ten years…or using the money to buy Bitcoin. Or to buy a house. BTC is up 40,000%. Houses have doubled. The street value of your Soc. Sec. ‘contributions’ meanwhile, has probably dropped, inasmuch as the ‘fund’ is expected to be insolvent by 2035.
People know what they get for their tax money — more regulation, boondoggles and wars. They don’t want it. So, they resist. And the feds find devious, insidious ways to keep the loot headed their way. That’s why we have deficits, inflation, and tariffs (DIT).
There is nothing new about this. In the early days of the Roman Empire foreign conquests brought glory, booty, and slaves. People were happy to be a part of it.
But after 100 AD the conquests largely ended. And as time went on managing the huge empire — with its far-flung garrisons and expensive bureaucracy — became less and less profitable. Taxpayers were squeezed harder and harder to pay for it.
Roman-era feds had their tricks too. The basic coin of Rome — the denarius — was inflated away. It came to be worth so little that even tax collectors wouldn’t take it. In 212, Caracalla expanded the tax base by giving Roman citizenship to all free men in the empire. But the squeeze continued.
Gradually, the small farmers — who had been the backbone and muscle of the empire — were forced to abandon their land…and even sell their wives and daughters into slavery in order to keep them alive. Gradually, too, Roman society became decadent, corrupt…and brutal, with more and more resources devoted to the war industry.
The story of Rome’s imperial decline is, grosso modo, a story of shrinking consensual civilization and rising brute force. The center weakened. Armies fought with each other to gain control of the government…often using foreign mercenaries…while also trying to secure a 5,000-mile border.
But the shift of resources from profitable commerce to costly firepower seems to be common to failing governments. Military force is primitive…basic…and difficult to oppose. Who doesn’t want more protection? Who doesn’t support ‘our heroes…our warfighters?’ And who’s going to argue with a man with a gun in his hand?
And so, Mr. Trump is killing ‘terrorists’ without charges or trial. The victims were said to be ‘narco-traffickers,’ said to be transporting drugs, said to be destined for the US, said to be connected to a criminal gang that was said to be in cahoots with the president of Venezuela.
Was any of that true? We don’t know, no evidence was presented. No trial held. No defense was permitted.
But the pattern is familiar. Identify ‘enemies.’ Tariff them. Sanction them. Blow them up. And keep the money and power headed to the feds.
Gold has almost doubled in the last two years. Source: Bloomberg
If just 1% of privately owned Treasuries were shifted into gold, the US$ gold price could rise to $5,000/oz, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.
The chance of interest rate cuts, and the risk of the Fed losing independence, could also be drivers for the gold price in 2026, according to Goldman. Gold has nearly doubled in the last two years.
Bill Bonner
Bonner Private Research & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
P.S. from Addison: Gold continues to make headlines – both from its strong trend higher, and from the weakness of other asset classes.
It’s not too late to get in on gold’s long-term trend higher. Most of the retail investing crowd is still waiting on the sidelines, suspicious of gold.
But given ongoing global government spending, deficit and debt accumulation trends, it’s our firm belief that gold is just getting started.
