The President has posted his foreign policy intentions — again. He can’t seem to help himself.
This time, demanding the “unconditional surrender” of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while U.S. officials leak whispers of a potential strike on Tehran.
Stocks, predictably, recoiled.
Investors hoping the Israel-Iran conflict would fizzle into diplomatic theater instead watched oil spike and equities slump.
Policy by post is, apparently, still a puzzling phenomenon for most people.
Safe to say, this doesn’t feel like the prelude to peace. The only winners yesterday were war profiteers and Verve Therapeutics, the latter snatched up by Eli Lilly for $1.3 billion — a rare bloom in a wilting field.
As for Tehran’s fate, if we’re measuring by the President’s Truth Social feed, it’s already been evacuated twice this week. We’re entering dangerous territory where national security doubles as a branding exercise.
At this rate, who needs a super-intelligent AI to destroy the human race?
Bonds Rally, Sales Stumble… sort of.
Headline retail sales disappointed yesterday, pushing yields lower and renewed speculation that the Fed will cut rates sooner.
That said, we don’t expect Jerome Powell to announce a rate cut this afternoon at 2 p.m.
Here’s why: “With the hype about the tariffs,” writes Martin Wolf, “some people might have tried to speed up their purchases and bring them into March to front-run any effects from the tariff.”
But so far, those tariff effects on prices have remained elusive. The data reveals that the mighty consumer has continued to spend, spend, spend.
If you remove seasonal adjustments, retail sales are at record highs.
Never mind that consumer credit balances – and personal bankruptcies – are also at record highs. Or that unrealized losses at regional banks are at 2023 crisis lows.
The pressure for rate cuts is political as Trump insists the Fed get in line with his Great Reset plan. JPow and associates have to be the adults in the room on rate policy.
Gold: The Central Bank Exit Strategy
In a survey of 72 central banks, 43% say they plan to increase gold reserves over the next year. Not one plans to sell. Gold has doubled since late 2022, and it’s not retail investors driving the rally.
The world’s monetary authorities — particularly those in emerging markets —
aren’t buying gold for speculative gain. They’re hedging against Washington. Inflation, fiscal deficits, seizure risk, dollar devaluation… these are not fringe worries anymore. They have become the new orthodoxy, globally.
Trump’s worst financial nightmare
revealed (you can’t unsee this)
If you think President Trump, Wall Street or the Federal Reserve have the economy under control … you really need to see this eye-opening video…
A $36 trillion ticking time bomb is about to explode and take the U.S. economy and stock market down with it. This story is unraveling quickly—yet no one is talking about—though they should be, and they soon will be. WATCH NOW.
OpenAI’s Civil War
As you might have anticipated, the AI revolution is turning on itself.
OpenAI is reportedly weighing antitrust accusations against Microsoft, its largest investor, over control of its corporate structure. Sam Altman is doing what he can to keep control of the firm he founded. And Meta Platforms is offering $100 million signing bonuses for OpenAI employees, although nobody has taken up the offer, Bloomberg reports. There’s apparently not enough AI coding talent to go around.
Elon’s xAI startup, not to be outdone, is torching $1 billion a month on infrastructure… and chasing the same engineers. Somewhere between these GPU bonfires and the Pentagon’s $200 million AI contract awarded Monday, you start to understand why the dollar’s purchasing power feels more like a rumor than a reality.
The Infinite Workday, or Death by Calendar Invite
Microsoft, fresh off parsing trillions of data points, has confirmed what most retirees suspected all along: the modern workplace is a prison with no doors.
40% of users check their email by 6 a.m. Meetings have bled into nights and weekends. Interruptions come every two minutes.
No wonder the percentage of employees with a positive outlook on their employer hit a record low of 44% last month.
Not to fear. Our Mark Jeftovic believes in the very near future, there will be no “jobs” in the traditional middle-class sense. Our daily tasks will be managed by bespoke AI… robots, taxis, traders. The only job most people will have is managing the wealth bequeathed to them from their parents.
Yes, that is a striking image. But it’s not as striking as our Zoltan Istvan’s fear that AI will develop super-intelligence and logically conclude that the health of the planet would be more easily preserved if human beings weren’t on it.
We’ve been investigating AI themes with Mark and Zoltan daily. More to come as our thesis develops.
In the meantime, Microsoft concludes, there’s fatigue — digital, cultural, spiritual.
Revenge of the Memes
Regencell Bioscience — a company that makes Chinese herbal remedies for ADHD and has no revenue — is now worth $30 billion. Thanks to a 38-for-1 stock split and a float that would fit in your glove compartment, the stock is up over 46,000% this year.
There are 12 employees. No sales. Cayman Islands registry. And yes, this is a real company.
No, you should not buy it. Unless, of course, you miss the thrill of 2000 dotcoms or have missed the court proceedings of Sam Bankman-Fried and judgments against Tom Brady, Giselle Bundchen and Snoop Dogg.
Solar Stocks Scorched
Speaking of stocks you should not buy: solar. The GOP tax bill’s latest draft slashed solar and wind credits into near oblivion. Residential solar, the darling of ESG portfolios everywhere, is in freefall. SunRun down 40%. Enphase off 24%. SolarEdge shedding 33%.
Even First Solar, the last man standing, is running on fumes. The energy policy whiplash is brutal — but instructive. Electric vehicle startups beware, when your business model depends on the whims of Congress, you’re one mid-term away from insolvency.
Seeds of (Virtual) Wealth
And now for something completely surreal: Grow a Garden, a Roblox game about pixelated plants, just set a new record with 16 million concurrent players. Think FarmVille for the screen-glued Gen Alpha set.
The in-game currency, Sheckles, can be traded for exotic vegetables and digital livestock. On the black market — yes, there’s a black market — rare digital fruit can sell for thousands of dollars. If your grandson is “working on his crops,” he may be farming more than carrots.
Call it absurd. But in a world where AI engineers make $100 million, and central banks hoard gold, maybe a $3,000 turnip isn’t so crazy.
History Repeats in Verse, Sometimes in Flames
When the War of 1812 began — on this very day, 213 years ago — muckety-mucks in Washington were confident a quick victory would turn Canada into the 19th state. (Yep, we did the math… at the start of the war, there were 18 states in the Union.)
The parallels to today’s confident declarations and thinly veiled provocations are too surreal to ignore. As is the coalition of acronyms – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (OAC) and Marjorie Tayler Green (MTG) and a handful of MAGA Republicans – who oppose any U.S. involvement in Israel’s current beef with Iran.
Empires rise with gumption and certainty over their exceptionalism. They fall into confusion… and debt.
“The only thing more dangerous than believing your own propaganda,” we wrote in Empire of Debt, “is letting the rest of the world believe it too.” We’re flirting with both. Today, we just do it on social media platforms.
~ Addison
P.S. Paid-up fraternity members: remember, we’re still hosting Grey Swan Live! tomorrow, Thursday, Juneteenth, at 11 a.m. ET. Chris Mayer joins us to explain how Buy Right, Sit Tight is at the heart of his generational wealth strategy.
You’ll enjoy hearing from Chris. He provides a little sanity in a world chasing meme stocks and militarized chatbots.
Mayer’s Woodlock House strategy focuses on real businesses with real cash flows run by intelligent insiders who’ve got “skin in the game.” Make a note on your calendar.
