The Engels’ Pause Is Here

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

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Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

The Engels’ Pause recognizes a lag between higher corporate profits and new job openings. You can expect the slow job market to raise new concerns about a deepening recession outside of AI and the stock market.

~ Addison

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

Turn Your Images On

Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

~ Addison

Fertilizer sits beneath the crops. And right now, it’s moving first. This breakout is one worth watching — and potentially worth investing in.

Tim Cook famously helped Apple reach $1 trillion in market cap. This is how he created over 2,200% in “shareholder value.”

As the Japanese bond goes, so goes the U.S. Treasury. At least, that’s the playbook Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is playing from…

October gets a bad rap, but September is the market’s worst-performing month… at its worst during midterm years.

Fertilizer sits beneath the crops. And right now, it’s moving first. This breakout is one worth watching — and potentially worth investing in.

Tim Cook famously helped Apple reach $1 trillion in market cap. This is how he created over 2,200% in “shareholder value.”

As the Japanese bond goes, so goes the U.S. Treasury. At least, that’s the playbook Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is playing from…

October gets a bad rap, but September is the market’s worst-performing month… at its worst during midterm years.