The Engels’ Pause Is Here

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

Turn Your Images On

Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

The Engels’ Pause recognizes a lag between higher corporate profits and new job openings. You can expect the slow job market to raise new concerns about a deepening recession outside of AI and the stock market.

~ Addison

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

Turn Your Images On

Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

~ Addison

China’s growing maritime pressure around Taiwan demonstrates economic leverage may be its preferred path to reshaping regional power dynamics.

Rapid growth in Treasury bill issuance is tying federal borrowing costs more tightly to short-term interest rates set by the central bank…

SpaceX has given a masterclass on what to expect from an IPO. But history shows a surge in IPO volume tends to mark near-term market caution.

With inflation fears fading and risk appetite surging, precious metals may be setting up as one of the market’s most overlooked opportunities.

China’s growing maritime pressure around Taiwan demonstrates economic leverage may be its preferred path to reshaping regional power dynamics.

Rapid growth in Treasury bill issuance is tying federal borrowing costs more tightly to short-term interest rates set by the central bank…

SpaceX has given a masterclass on what to expect from an IPO. But history shows a surge in IPO volume tends to mark near-term market caution.

With inflation fears fading and risk appetite surging, precious metals may be setting up as one of the market’s most overlooked opportunities.