The Engels’ Pause Is Here

Addison Wiggin

November 7, 2025 • 46 second read

Job market

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

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Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

The Engels’ Pause recognizes a lag between higher corporate profits and new job openings. You can expect the slow job market to raise new concerns about a deepening recession outside of AI and the stock market.

~ Addison

Ripple Effect

The Engels’ Pause Is Here

Addison Wiggin

November 7, 2025 • 46 second read

Job market

The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:

Turn Your Images On

Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart)

Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.

~ Addison

The Debasement Trade, A Legacy

November 7, 2025 • James Hickman

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods — because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

Forward March, Dollar 2.0

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

China’s Ant Group is filing trademarks for “Antcoin” while the Party debates whether digital dollars threaten national sovereignty. And in Singapore, StraitsX cofounder Samson Leo frets about regulatory fragmentation: “If every jurisdiction requires us to split reserves across their banking systems, customer protection will diminish.”

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

A Masterclass In Absurdity

November 6, 2025 • Lau Vegys

If you’re from New York—or know anyone there—you’ll probably agree: most New Yorkers are fed up with crime, the outrageous cost of living, government incompetence and corruption—and, yes, the rats.

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.

Their hatred of Donald Trump—and a steady diet of MSNBC—has made them blind to the obvious: it’s the Left’s policies creating these problems. You have rent control shrinking supply by forcing landlords to pull units from the market, union giveaways jacking up the cost of transportation, zero-bail laws putting criminals back on the streets, and so on and so forth.

The Price of Everything, the Value of Nothing

November 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Markets are having themselves a moody little week.

The Dow’s off 1%, the S&P 500’s down 2%, and the Nasdaq — where the AI darlings dance — has stumbled nearly 4%.

Even the refuge assets are catching cold: gold glitters less, and bitcoin, ever the high-strung teenager of finance, is down nearly 8%.

At the moment, traders aren’t sure what to make of it all.

Trump’s tariffs are under review at the Supreme Court, Zohran Mamdani’s socialist experiment is about to begin in New York City, and the AI trade — Wall Street’s favorite bedtime story — is between plot twists.

The Price of Everything, the Value of Nothing