The Economics of Precious Metals Stocks Today

“When Gold argues the cause, eloquence is impotent.”

— Publilius Syrus

January 15, 2026 — In November, as gold corrected about 10% from $4,400 down to $4,000 and silver corrected about 13% from $54 down to around $47, many of the individual precious metals (PM) stocks were down 20%, 30%, or even 40%.

Yes, the mining stocks are leveraged plays on the underlying metals, and so this outperformance cuts in both directions. However, these extreme downside moves lately, at least fundamentally, seem pretty disjointed from their economic reality at their current profit margins or expanded project economics.

This sector smack down is even more silly when one considers that the valuations that most PM companies were receiving this year, even at their October highs, were still nowhere close to where they should be valued within this backdrop of record-high underlying metals prices; or compared to where they’ve been valued during past cycles.

What in the world is going on here with these muted valuations and weak share price action in the face of such underlying strength?

Despite this year’s gold and silver stocks outperformance, trouncing most other stock market sectors, many comparative fundamental metrics like price to earnings and price to forward sales in the producers or in price to NAV in developers pale in comparison to many generalist market sectors.

This will become so much more evident when their higher Q4 earnings post and at similar or lower market caps, then some of those metrics will then be even lower, as they are based on Q3 numbers. That also means that the companies are actually growing more valuable here in Q4, even as some are being valued lower, making them better opportunities.

The market really never even fully valued PM producers or developers for Gold in the low to mid-$3,000s or Silver in the high $30’s or low $40s… much less anywhere near where things are today.

This is because the market is often slow to adjust to new realities, despite it often being touted as ‘forward-looking’ by most market pundits.

It boggles the mind how many gold stocks are pulling back with gold hovering around $4,000 or that silver stocks have been tentative to weak with the underlying silver prices in the high $40s to over $50.

These are price levels that we’ve waited for over many years to be achieved; and in the case of silver over 4.5 decades.

So then, when that moment finally arrives, we see a nice bump at the onset, but then nervous nellie investors are selling and running for the exit doors simultaneously as the companies are at their strongest economic value propositions of all time.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.

PM developers should be at max valuations here, and getting $300-$500 per ounce in the ground (or even more), based on where the current margins are from producers to extract metal from the ground at $1,500-$2,000+ margins; but that seems lost on investors hitting the ‘ask’ button to exit at any price.

Sentiment follows price action… always.

After diving into a number of silver producers’ Q3 numbers, most showed ‘record revenues’ with year-over-year growth in the quarter of 50%-100%, and quarter-over-quarter growth of around 15%-30%. How many other sectors can actually say that?

Unless investors bought the top a month ago in mid-October, then almost everyone should be sitting on solid green positions in their gold and silver stocks (maybe excluding the junior explorers that are more news-driven than price-driven).

Unless we see signs of deterioration on the weekly or monthly charts, then the big-picture PM bull market is still intact and underway.

Yes, $4,200 gold and $60 silver are extremely economic prices for PM stocks, and investors would be wise to stay in these stocks as 2025 comes to a close.

Regards,

Shad Marquitz
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Shad’s insights come from our December Grey Swan Bulletin, when gold was “just” $4,200 and silver was “just” $60.

Today in Grey Swan Live! Shad joined us and take a closer look at the precious metals market in 2026.

With gold over $4,600 and silver over $90, it’s clear that there’s a metals mania – but Shad answered the critical question of how far this trend can go.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll have the replay up on the site tomorrow for Grey Swan Invsetment Fraterntity Members who couldn’t attend live. Don’t miss it!

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

“When Gold argues the cause, eloquence is impotent.”

— Publilius Syrus

What in the world is going on here with these muted valuations and weak share price action in the face of such underlying strength?

The market really never even fully valued PM producers or developers for Gold in the low to mid-$3,000s or Silver in the high $30’s or low $40s… much less anywhere near where things are today.

This is because the market is often slow to adjust to new realities, despite it often being touted as ‘forward-looking’ by most market pundits.

These are price levels that we’ve waited for over many years to be achieved; and in the case of silver over 4.5 decades.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

Sentiment follows price action… always.

Unless we see signs of deterioration on the weekly or monthly charts, then the big-picture PM bull market is still intact and underway.

Yes, $4,200 gold and $60 silver are extremely economic prices for PM stocks, and investors would be wise to stay in these stocks as 2025 comes to a close.

Regards,

Shad Marquitz
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Shad’s insights come from our December Grey Swan Bulletin, when gold was “just” $4,200 and silver was “just” $60.

Today in Grey Swan Live! Shad joined us and take a closer look at the precious metals market in 2026.

With gold over $4,600 and silver over $90, it’s clear that there’s a metals mania – but Shad answered the critical question of how far this trend can go.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll have the replay up on the site tomorrow for Grey Swan Invsetment Fraterntity Members who couldn’t attend live. Don’t miss it!

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!