The Dollar’s Collapse Has Begun

May 15, 2025 • 43 second read

We noted in this morning’s Swan Dive that the U.S. dollar is down 8% year-to-date.

For the world’s reserve currency, that’s a massive move – and a major warning signal that is drowned out by cheering stock investors right now.

Consider what happened to the last world reserve currency, the British Pound.

A century ago, the whammy of World Wars and the Great Depression meant that the U.K. had a high trade deficit and a massive amount of debt, much like the U.S. today.

So they devalued. Here’s what happened next:

Turn Your Images On

The U.K.’s dominance ended with the Great War. But it still took decades for the loss of that dominance to be fully felt. There was no one single event or day where it

It’ll be the same way with the buck. Death by a thousand cuts.

-Addison

Ripple Effect

The Dollar’s Collapse Has Begun

Andrew Packer

May 15, 2025 • 43 second read

We noted in this morning’s Swan Dive that the U.S. dollar is down 8% year-to-date.

For the world’s reserve currency, that’s a massive move – and a major warning signal that is drowned out by cheering stock investors right now.

Consider what happened to the last world reserve currency, the British Pound.

A century ago, the whammy of World Wars and the Great Depression meant that the U.K. had a high trade deficit and a massive amount of debt, much like the U.S. today.

So they devalued. Here’s what happened next:

Turn Your Images On

The U.K.’s dominance ended with the Great War. But it still took decades for the loss of that dominance to be fully felt. There was no one single event or day where it

It’ll be the same way with the buck. Death by a thousand cuts.

-Addison

Copper’s Clear Signal

August 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Market Crash Insurance Is Cheap

August 14, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Beware: Financial Innovation In AI

August 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

Signs of a Late-Stage Bull Market

August 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.