The Calm Before the Terrifying Bull

The major indexes have been trading sideways since the end of November.

But there is one tiny indicator showing the broad market is ready to push higher:

Turn Your Images On

While the S&P 500 index has been flat the past few weeks, more stocks have been rising than falling. (Source: Market In Out)

The advance/decline ratio looks at the percentage of stocks in an index that are rising compared to the number that are falling.

While the index has been flat the past few weeks, the advance ratio has been improving. Only A few names – notably Oracle – have been keeping a lid on markets.

“A rising advance/decline ratio is a sign of a healthy market that isn’t dominated by just a few names,” notes Andrew Packer. “And it’s a good sign that the market isn’t just dependent on a handful of tech stocks.”

The pre-Santa Rally setup shows a rotation out of Mag 7 tech stocks and into the broader market through the end of the year.

Under our terrifying bull market forecast – when investors buy stocks to beat inflation rather than for fundamental value – the advance/decline ratio will go into overdrive.

We’re not there yet.

~ Addison

P.S. Last week, we broke bread with an old friend of the house, Dan Amoss—a forensic accountant by training and a market bloodhound by instinct.

Dan was early to the tech wreck, earlier still to the rot in mortgage-backed securities, and famously short Lehman Brothers when that trade exploded 470% overnight on September 15, 2008. For the last decade, he’s been trading stocks and options for another friend you may recognize, Jim Rickards.

To the casual observer, Dan’s work invites comparisons to Michael Burry of The Big Short fame. The difference is that Dan was practicing this brand of forensic investing long before Hollywood learned how to spell “CDO.”

I’ve invited Dan to join us on Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, December 18, 2025 to share his findings directly.

Dan’s going to walk us through several trades he’s made during the AI boom—and, more importantly, the accounting stress fractures beneath the surface that lead him to believe 2026 could prove even more treacherous for individual investors than 2000–01 or 2008–09. It’ll be dense, unsettling, and refreshingly coherent. You won’t want to miss this one.

The major indexes have been trading sideways since the end of November.

But there is one tiny indicator showing the broad market is ready to push higher:

Turn Your Images On

While the S&P 500 index has been flat the past few weeks, more stocks have been rising than falling. (Source: Market In Out)

The advance/decline ratio looks at the percentage of stocks in an index that are rising compared to the number that are falling.

While the index has been flat the past few weeks, the advance ratio has been improving. Only A few names – notably Oracle – have been keeping a lid on markets.

The pre-Santa Rally setup shows a rotation out of Mag 7 tech stocks and into the broader market through the end of the year.

Under our terrifying bull market forecast – when investors buy stocks to beat inflation rather than for fundamental value – the advance/decline ratio will go into overdrive.

We’re not there yet.

~ Addison

P.S. Last week, we broke bread with an old friend of the house, Dan Amoss—a forensic accountant by training and a market bloodhound by instinct.

I’ve invited Dan to join us on Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, December 18, 2025 to share his findings directly.

What would a return to gold look like? Jim presents multiple scenarios, including a partial gold backing of new international reserve currencies. He notes that prior attempts to stabilize the global economy – such as the Genoa Conference in 1922 and the postwar Bretton Woods system – centered on gold’s role in anchoring currency values.

As history has shown, when trust in paper currencies erodes, gold emerges as the ultimate safe haven. The world looks to be on the cusp of another monetary realignment, and this time, gold will play a critical role.

Our task here at the Grey Swan HQ, as we head into year 250 of this American experiment, is not to choose a tribe or a slogan — but to recover clarity.

To understand what is being offered, what is being denied, and what quietly slips away when arithmetic, history, and human nature are treated as inconveniences.

That work is slower. Less satisfying. And far more necessary.

Because when the idea of America becomes unmoored, it’s not necessarily yielding to an improvement on the original, is it? The news cycle, for today at least, just reveals it’s being replaced… by something louder.

Louder is rarely wiser.

A generation ago, a single income could support a family, buy a house and pay for a vehicle or two in the driveway.

Today, even two high earners are struggling to purchase a new home.

According to a recent report from Bankrate, a household earning $80,000 a year is now priced out of 75% of all new homes on the market. A family now needs to earn at least $113,000, and in some major metros, it’s closer to $200,000.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate has slipped to a six-year low, with further declines expected next year. Families are being squeezed from every angle.

The point I want to make here is that the so-called affordability crisis isn’t just about the cost of homes or other assets. It’s about the cost of money.

In just the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit already totals $458 billion — the second-largest start on record.

More troubling still, the net interest expense hit $179 billion, outrunning Medicare, defense, and healthcare. At this pace, interest will again be the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget.