The Buck Gets Whacked

Silver is trading above $110 per ounce. Gold touched on $5,300 overnight. A big part of that story in the past 48 hours is the mechanism most investors use to value those assets – the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index has cratered to a four-year low:

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The U.S. dollar has broken to a four-year low, potentially boosting exports and supporting asset prices.
(Source: Kobeissi Letter)

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.

Take note: if the dollar rout gets out of hand, the crack-up boom we forecast for 2026 will commence in earnest.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! – Thursday, January 29, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET – we’ll be joined by Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert . Real estate – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S., even while appreciating in dollar terms.

Ronan’s going to treat us to real estate deals he’s got cooking in Mexico, Panama and Paraguay… it’s going to be a welcome tropical topic after this week’s bout with winter weather in North America.

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Ronan’s also been scouting property in Venezuela – yes, Venezuela – following Trump’s abrupt capture of Nicolas Maduro to kick off the new year. We haven’t spoken to him yet about this property, but we’ve heard he found beachfront condos for $15,000. Not everyone’s cup of tea, for sure. But if you’re into crisis investing… well, we’ll find out what deals Ronan has found.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Silver is trading above $110 per ounce. Gold touched on $5,300 overnight. A big part of that story in the past 48 hours is the mechanism most investors use to value those assets – the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index has cratered to a four-year low:

Turn Your Images On

The U.S. dollar has broken to a four-year low, potentially boosting exports and supporting asset prices.
(Source: Kobeissi Letter)

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.

Take note: if the dollar rout gets out of hand, the crack-up boom we forecast for 2026 will commence in earnest.

~ Addison

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Over the past year, gold has climbed more than 80%.

Why?

Because inflation isn’t dead. Because debt isn’t sustainable. Because equities look priced to perfection. Because bonds yield less than honest work. And because every institution you thought was safe is now a political football.

Is it peak gold? Maybe. But previous gold rallies have lasted for years. The storm hasn’t passed — it’s only beginning to darken. Many of the risks keeping investors up at night are unlikely to go away soon.

The S&P 500 may be sitting near a record 7,000. But relative to gold, it’s been in decline.

Over the past three years, the market is up 45%, but gold is up 180%. Today the ratio of the S&P to gold is down to 1.39.

Silver is now up 54% year-to, err, month-to-date. And up over 280% since the start of 2025.

While we don’t know how much further upside is left, prior parabolic moves like these tend to lead to big pullbacks when they end.

“If you’re tempted to take a screenshot of your portfolio, it’s a good idea to take some profits while you’re doing that,” suggests our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer.

We’d do so to grab some of those silver profits, simply because even though we started dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) into gold and silver in 2018 – silver was $16.47 – no assets can go parabolic, like silver has, indefinitely.

Gold and silver are making new highs. Gold knocked on the door of $5,100 in overnight trading in Shanghai this morning. Silver, not to be outdone, is driving resource traders wild, cracking $116 up 15% today alone.

A year ago, one bitcoin bought roughly 40 ounces of gold. Today it buys 18.

Bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Instead, Wall Street wrapped it in ETFs, margin accounts, and structured products.

Over the past year, gold has climbed more than 80%.

Why?

The S&P 500 may be sitting near a record 7,000. But relative to gold, it’s been in decline.

Over the past three years, the market is up 45%, but gold is up 180%. Today the ratio of the S&P to gold is down to 1.39.

Silver is now up 54% year-to, err, month-to-date. And up over 280% since the start of 2025.

While we don’t know how much further upside is left, prior parabolic moves like these tend to lead to big pullbacks when they end.

“If you’re tempted to take a screenshot of your portfolio, it’s a good idea to take some profits while you’re doing that,” suggests our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer.

A year ago, one bitcoin bought roughly 40 ounces of gold. Today it buys 18.

Bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Instead, Wall Street wrapped it in ETFs, margin accounts, and structured products.