The Bond Vigilantes Weigh In

On this day in 2010, a programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz did something simple, yet world-altering: he traded 10,000 bitcoin for two Papa John’s pizzas. At the time, it was a fun lark. Today, after bitcoin touched $111,000, that greasy dinner would cost over $1.1 billion, or $550 million per pizza.

Bitcoin Pizza day is a fitting anniversary for today’s new nuggets. Let’s begin…

🖊️ There’s a Lot President Trump Can Do—But…

There’s a lot President Trump can do by executive order — and he’s been doing it at a pace that makes even seasoned bureaucrats wince.

In just a few weeks, he’s reinstated oil and gas leases, scrapped electric vehicle mandates, slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, dismantled ESG rules, floated a ban on central bank digital currencies, revived talk of a Mar-a-lago gold commission, started deporting gang members, redirected federal contracts to “America First” suppliers, and leaned hard on Powell to cut interest rates — preferably without worrying too much about the corners.

We’ve been following along just fine.

But for all the movement, he can’t control the federal budget, and more importantly, he can’t control the bond market.

His “big, beautiful” tax and spending plan is already drawing fire from the traders who matter most: the ones pricing 20 and 30-year Treasurys.

The “bond vigilantes” see deficit risks growing like weeds — and they’re jacking up yields in response.

📈 The Vigilantes Are Getting “A Little Bit Yippy”-er, Globally

Ah yes, the bond vigilantes — those unsentimental enforcers of fiscal discipline — are back in earnest.

As we noted late yesterday, yields at the 20-year auction for U.S. treasuries lept mid-auction in order to attract buyers. The Fed itself had to step in and buy $50 billion to stop the spike.

Turn Your Images On

As Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos put it, once Congress passes this tax bill — whatever shape it takes — it’s likely locked in for the rest of Trump’s term.

If bond buyers don’t like what they see, there’s no going back to the drawing board. And no amount of presidential chest-thumping can lower borrowing costs once markets decide to revolt.

But bond vigilantes aren’t just yippy at Washington, they’ve turned against long-dated bonds globally.

Turn Your Images On

In the U.K., 30-year gilt yields are now higher than they were during the lettuce-era of Liz Truss, when her unfunded tax cut bonanza imploded in under seven weeks.

The global bond market reaction suggests that if politicians can’t figure out how to manage public spending, it will cost them a lot more to finance their politics.

📉 Stagflation Is No Longer a Talking Point

For his part, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon added a splash of cold realism. “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” he said, in reference to the notion that the U.S. economy is coasting.

Dimon sees instead stagflation becoming the default setting: sluggish growth, stubborn inflation, and a Federal Reserve that’s basically out of tools. Interest rates are stuck, prices aren’t, and the Fed’s toolkit is starting to look like it came from a secondhand IKEA clearance bin.

₿ On Cue, Bitcoin’s Great Escape

Bitcoin skipped past $111,000 briefly at midnight, then again at 6 a.m. this morning. Mostly, thanks to a cocktail of institutional inflows and legislative progress on stablecoins.

In the past 5 days, since about the time the “big, beautiful bill” started crowding out the media headlines, ₿ up nearly $10k:

Turn Your Images On

Gold, meanwhile, is still hanging around $3,400.

It’s not really about crypto or yellow jewelry material at all — it’s about trust.

Or rather, the absence of it.

Bitcoin, for all its volatility, doesn’t come with a Treasury Secretary or a yield curve. It’s the closest thing to “digital gold” in a system full of actors with very loud microphones.

🛢️ Oil Flows Like Campaign Money

OPEC+ is said to be preparing its third straight production hike, conveniently ahead of the election calendar. The stated reason is to meet demand. The real reason? To make sure Trump doesn’t show up in Riyadh with a grudge and a microphone.

Low gas prices mean calmer inflation data. And nothing soothes voters like seeing $2.99 at the pump. The Saudis know it. Trump’s first trip abroad to the Middle East wasn’t a coincidence. He needed investment in the U.S. to counter Chinese influence globally. And he required cheap energy at home.

🛍️ Target Takes On Water While Rivals Stay Afloat

Retailers are bracing for tariffs and consumer fatigue — and Target is aptly named, taking the full blast. The company reported another earnings miss yesterday and downgraded its full-year outlook from a modest gain to a projected sales decline.

That would mark three years in a row of shrinking top-line revenue, while Walmart, Lowe’s, and Home Depot all managed to hold steady.

What’s dragging Target down? Discretionary sales and a self-inflicted wound. Their quick backpedal on DEI policies sparked a boycott that killed foot traffic for over a month.

Now they say an “acceleration office” using AI will fix things. If buzzwords were revenue, they’d be in the black already.

🧠 The Market’s the Boss

The overriding narrative today: The president can approve pipelines, erase climate regulations, and redirect Pentagon contracts with a signature. But he can’t command trust or will buyers into the bond market.

Capital doesn’t pledge allegiance. It votes with its feet. And when the vigilantes saddle up, even the most aggressive policy agenda can be priced out of reach.

Ah well, while the markets were sorting out trivial global macroeconomic matters, at least Washington politicos managed to reach a consensus on the essential things.

The No Tax on Tips Act, a standalone carve-out from Trump’s broader tax agenda, passed the Senate 100–0 on Tuesday.

First introduced by Ted Cruz and ushered to the floor by a Democrat, it exempts up to $25,000 in tips from federal taxes for workers making under $160,000.

It’s a popular idea, but one with modest impact. Yale’s Budget Lab says only 2.5% of U.S. workers rely on tips, and many don’t pay federal income taxes anyway – but they are consumers.

The average gain? About $1,800 per year. Critics argue it distracts from the fight to raise subminimum wages. But in an election year, even minor tax cuts for waitstaff can carry oversized political weight.

Next up: the House. If it passes, all that’s left is Trump’s signature — and perhaps a few celebratory photo ops at a Waffle House.

~ Addison
Grey Swan

Bitcoin Pizza day is a fitting anniversary for today’s new nuggets. Let’s begin…

🖊️ There’s a Lot President Trump Can Do—But…

There’s a lot President Trump can do by executive order — and he’s been doing it at a pace that makes even seasoned bureaucrats wince.

We’ve been following along just fine.

But for all the movement, he can’t control the federal budget, and more importantly, he can’t control the bond market.

His “big, beautiful” tax and spending plan is already drawing fire from the traders who matter most: the ones pricing 20 and 30-year Treasurys.

The “bond vigilantes” see deficit risks growing like weeds — and they’re jacking up yields in response.

📈 The Vigilantes Are Getting “A Little Bit Yippy”-er, Globally

Ah yes, the bond vigilantes — those unsentimental enforcers of fiscal discipline — are back in earnest.

As we noted late yesterday, yields at the 20-year auction for U.S. treasuries lept mid-auction in order to attract buyers. The Fed itself had to step in and buy $50 billion to stop the spike.

Turn Your Images On

As Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos put it, once Congress passes this tax bill — whatever shape it takes — it’s likely locked in for the rest of Trump’s term.

If bond buyers don’t like what they see, there’s no going back to the drawing board. And no amount of presidential chest-thumping can lower borrowing costs once markets decide to revolt.

But bond vigilantes aren’t just yippy at Washington, they’ve turned against long-dated bonds globally.

Turn Your Images On

In the U.K., 30-year gilt yields are now higher than they were during the lettuce-era of Liz Truss, when her unfunded tax cut bonanza imploded in under seven weeks.

The global bond market reaction suggests that if politicians can’t figure out how to manage public spending, it will cost them a lot more to finance their politics.

📉 Stagflation Is No Longer a Talking Point

For his part, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon added a splash of cold realism. “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” he said, in reference to the notion that the U.S. economy is coasting.

₿ On Cue, Bitcoin’s Great Escape

Bitcoin skipped past $111,000 briefly at midnight, then again at 6 a.m. this morning. Mostly, thanks to a cocktail of institutional inflows and legislative progress on stablecoins.

In the past 5 days, since about the time the “big, beautiful bill” started crowding out the media headlines, ₿ up nearly $10k:

Turn Your Images On

Gold, meanwhile, is still hanging around $3,400.

It’s not really about crypto or yellow jewelry material at all — it’s about trust.

Or rather, the absence of it.

Bitcoin, for all its volatility, doesn’t come with a Treasury Secretary or a yield curve. It’s the closest thing to “digital gold” in a system full of actors with very loud microphones.

🛢️ Oil Flows Like Campaign Money

🛍️ Target Takes On Water While Rivals Stay Afloat

That would mark three years in a row of shrinking top-line revenue, while Walmart, Lowe’s, and Home Depot all managed to hold steady.

What’s dragging Target down? Discretionary sales and a self-inflicted wound. Their quick backpedal on DEI policies sparked a boycott that killed foot traffic for over a month.

Now they say an “acceleration office” using AI will fix things. If buzzwords were revenue, they’d be in the black already.

🧠 The Market’s the Boss

Capital doesn’t pledge allegiance. It votes with its feet. And when the vigilantes saddle up, even the most aggressive policy agenda can be priced out of reach.

Ah well, while the markets were sorting out trivial global macroeconomic matters, at least Washington politicos managed to reach a consensus on the essential things.

The No Tax on Tips Act, a standalone carve-out from Trump’s broader tax agenda, passed the Senate 100–0 on Tuesday.

First introduced by Ted Cruz and ushered to the floor by a Democrat, it exempts up to $25,000 in tips from federal taxes for workers making under $160,000.

It’s a popular idea, but one with modest impact. Yale’s Budget Lab says only 2.5% of U.S. workers rely on tips, and many don’t pay federal income taxes anyway – but they are consumers.

Next up: the House. If it passes, all that’s left is Trump’s signature — and perhaps a few celebratory photo ops at a Waffle House.

~ Addison
Grey Swan