Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.
Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.
The end result?
Overlaying the AI and dotcom boom, there’ s still more room to run (Source: Cheddar Flow)
If history continues to rhyme, we expect a final parabolic move higher to be in the works. One that may kick off near the end of the year and move into 2026.
A repeat of the dotcom bubble burst would be classic, too. The wheels will likely come off as soon as companies like Nvidia report a slowdown in their growth.
“In 2026, we could see a repeat of the 2022 bear market,” notes Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “Some big pullbacks, a few strong counter-rallies to keep the hope alive, then a slow grind lower.”
~ Addison
P.S. Exuberance for AI has forced a historic concentration in a historically few stocks at the top. By definition, then, there are pockets of extreme value elsewhere in the market.
That includes materials, commodities, mining and energy stocks, as the Trump administration pushes for a stronger industrial policy and more domestic production.
Gold, firmly above $3700, will likely catch retail interest as central banks push prices higher and the Trump administration forces monetary changes. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, and can play out even as the AI bubble meets its inevitable pin.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
