The Big, Beautiful Sellout

One of the most important data points to understand the coming years is debt-to-GDP.

Yes, you can argue about how to measure GDP. And there are some forms of debt, like those debts tied to entitlement programs, that aren’t even included.

But using the government’s own baseline numbers, things are getting ugly. And they’re getting worse, not better.

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History tells us that when a nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 130%, it is a point of no return.

Servicing that level of debt means lower systemic growth – making it even more challenging for those who want to ignore the debt and try to grow the economy out of the problem.

The latest spending boondoggle does nothing to change the trajectory, and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and higher SALT deductions, among other goodies, will accelerate the timeline.

If the party of so-called “small government” is just looking to juice the private sector now rather than avert a crisis – then such a crisis has always been inevitable. Be prepared.

~ Addison

P.S. With out-of-control spending still the norm in Washington, two assets look attractive as safe havens: gold and bitcoin. With the dollar weakening on top of everything else, we see the potential for gold prices to soar far higher over the next 18 months. It’s also no surprise to see silver breaking higher, finally jumping past $35 and topping $36.

Meanwhile, with all the institutional interest in bitcoin, which is getting over 98% of the capital to the broader crypto market right now, it’s possible that bitcoin could also be on a similar trajectory in the months ahead as a crisis looks increasingly likely.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

One of the most important data points to understand the coming years is debt-to-GDP.

Yes, you can argue about how to measure GDP. And there are some forms of debt, like those debts tied to entitlement programs, that aren’t even included.

But using the government’s own baseline numbers, things are getting ugly. And they’re getting worse, not better.

Turn Your Images On

History tells us that when a nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 130%, it is a point of no return.

Servicing that level of debt means lower systemic growth – making it even more challenging for those who want to ignore the debt and try to grow the economy out of the problem.

The latest spending boondoggle does nothing to change the trajectory, and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and higher SALT deductions, among other goodies, will accelerate the timeline.

If the party of so-called “small government” is just looking to juice the private sector now rather than avert a crisis – then such a crisis has always been inevitable. Be prepared.

~ Addison

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

On the current trajectory, online and offline tribal warfare, with events that range from assassinations to riots to sabotage, is inevitable. Worse still, with both sides waging moral warfare (good versus evil), there is no middle ground, rendering compromise impossible.

To avoid this, the government could step in to crack down on illegal immigrants, serial criminality, and activist blue cells to slow the ramp in extrajudicial violence from the red tribe. This would reduce the chance we see a rapid escalation in tit for tat violence. However, to do this, it would need to designate many activist groups as terrorist entities and pursue them with the degree of vigor we saw with Islamic radicals after 9/11.

We’ve been watching private credit all year — the $3 trillion shadow banking machine that promises “nimble lending” but operates in the dark. Think of it as the modern heir to subprime mortgages: a system that works beautifully until it doesn’t.

According to Moody’s, U.S. commercial banks now hold $300 billion in loans to private credit firms, up from just $100 billion a decade ago. That’s more than 10% of total bank lending — and it means the “non-bank” lenders aren’t so non-bank after all.

When banks lend to private funds, which then lend to companies like First Brands, the risk just loops back into the same system regulators thought they’d insulated after 2008.

Hedge funds have gone all-in on semiconductor stocks.

We believe the emergence of a USD stablecoin carries the potential to be a transformative event in monetary history, one as consequential as the day the United States severed its link to gold and as powerful in shaping the world’s financial order as the moment it abandoned Bretton Woods.

This paper does not offer reassurance of the status quo. It confronts a reality that few seem to have yet recognized and even fewer truly understand. It describes the quiet emergence of a tool whose strategic potential remains largely unseen, even as it begins to reshape the foundations of global finance.

When banks lend to private funds, which then lend to companies like First Brands, the risk just loops back into the same system regulators thought they’d insulated after 2008.

Hedge funds have gone all-in on semiconductor stocks.