The AI Bubble’s Most Terrifying Bull Is Gearing Up

When it comes to AI, it’s a strong echo to the dotcom boom.

Nvidia, the poster child for the necessary hardware behind AI systems, is akin to that of router manufacturer Cisco.

Cisco shares soared thousands of percentage points in the 1990s, only to collapse once everyone had a PC connected to the internet.

Where exactly are we today in terms of a similar move? In a way, 2025 has looked much like 1998 – early into the bubble, but not quite at the blow-off top.

Financial markets, particularly the Nasdaq, are eerily lining up:

Turn Your Images On

The Nasdaq is following the dotcom rally of the 1990s to a T since the launch of ChatGPT (Source: Barchart)

Looking at how the Nasdaq is soaring since the launch of ChatGPT and overlaying it with the performance following the release of Netscape, the first commercial web browser, it’s another sign that AI is just an updated version of the dotcom boom.

Don’t be surprised if this time it ends the same way – a blow-off top ahead, playing into our Most Terrifying Bull Market thesis – before it all comes down.

For now, there’s still some money to be made. By the time everyone’s looking to ignore the fact that it’s a bubble and marginal buyers are all-in, it won’t take much to reverse course.

~ Addison

P.S.: While today’s chart suggests we’re closer to 1997 than 2000, remember, there were some steep pullbacks along the way during the dotcom boom:

The collapse of the “Asian Tiger” economies, the collapse of LTCM, rising concerns over Y2K…

Don’t chase this rally. Use healthy pullbacks to buy strong, industry-leading companies. Keep stacking gold and bitcoin. When worse comes to worst, you’ll come out just fine.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

When it comes to AI, it’s a strong echo to the dotcom boom.

Nvidia, the poster child for the necessary hardware behind AI systems, is akin to that of router manufacturer Cisco.

Cisco shares soared thousands of percentage points in the 1990s, only to collapse once everyone had a PC connected to the internet.

Where exactly are we today in terms of a similar move? In a way, 2025 has looked much like 1998 – early into the bubble, but not quite at the blow-off top.

Financial markets, particularly the Nasdaq, are eerily lining up:

Turn Your Images On

The Nasdaq is following the dotcom rally of the 1990s to a T since the launch of ChatGPT (Source: Barchart)

Don’t be surprised if this time it ends the same way – a blow-off top ahead, playing into our Most Terrifying Bull Market thesis – before it all comes down.

For now, there’s still some money to be made. By the time everyone’s looking to ignore the fact that it’s a bubble and marginal buyers are all-in, it won’t take much to reverse course.

~ Addison

P.S.: While today’s chart suggests we’re closer to 1997 than 2000, remember, there were some steep pullbacks along the way during the dotcom boom:

The collapse of the “Asian Tiger” economies, the collapse of LTCM, rising concerns over Y2K…

Don’t chase this rally. Use healthy pullbacks to buy strong, industry-leading companies. Keep stacking gold and bitcoin. When worse comes to worst, you’ll come out just fine.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.