The AI Bubble’s Most Terrifying Bull Is Gearing Up

When it comes to AI, it’s a strong echo to the dotcom boom.

Nvidia, the poster child for the necessary hardware behind AI systems, is akin to that of router manufacturer Cisco.

Cisco shares soared thousands of percentage points in the 1990s, only to collapse once everyone had a PC connected to the internet.

Where exactly are we today in terms of a similar move? In a way, 2025 has looked much like 1998 – early into the bubble, but not quite at the blow-off top.

Financial markets, particularly the Nasdaq, are eerily lining up:

Turn Your Images On

The Nasdaq is following the dotcom rally of the 1990s to a T since the launch of ChatGPT (Source: Barchart)

Looking at how the Nasdaq is soaring since the launch of ChatGPT and overlaying it with the performance following the release of Netscape, the first commercial web browser, it’s another sign that AI is just an updated version of the dotcom boom.

Don’t be surprised if this time it ends the same way – a blow-off top ahead, playing into our Most Terrifying Bull Market thesis – before it all comes down.

For now, there’s still some money to be made. By the time everyone’s looking to ignore the fact that it’s a bubble and marginal buyers are all-in, it won’t take much to reverse course.

~ Addison

P.S.: While today’s chart suggests we’re closer to 1997 than 2000, remember, there were some steep pullbacks along the way during the dotcom boom:

The collapse of the “Asian Tiger” economies, the collapse of LTCM, rising concerns over Y2K…

Don’t chase this rally. Use healthy pullbacks to buy strong, industry-leading companies. Keep stacking gold and bitcoin. When worse comes to worst, you’ll come out just fine.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

When it comes to AI, it’s a strong echo to the dotcom boom.

Nvidia, the poster child for the necessary hardware behind AI systems, is akin to that of router manufacturer Cisco.

Cisco shares soared thousands of percentage points in the 1990s, only to collapse once everyone had a PC connected to the internet.

Where exactly are we today in terms of a similar move? In a way, 2025 has looked much like 1998 – early into the bubble, but not quite at the blow-off top.

Financial markets, particularly the Nasdaq, are eerily lining up:

Turn Your Images On

The Nasdaq is following the dotcom rally of the 1990s to a T since the launch of ChatGPT (Source: Barchart)

Don’t be surprised if this time it ends the same way – a blow-off top ahead, playing into our Most Terrifying Bull Market thesis – before it all comes down.

For now, there’s still some money to be made. By the time everyone’s looking to ignore the fact that it’s a bubble and marginal buyers are all-in, it won’t take much to reverse course.

~ Addison

P.S.: While today’s chart suggests we’re closer to 1997 than 2000, remember, there were some steep pullbacks along the way during the dotcom boom:

The collapse of the “Asian Tiger” economies, the collapse of LTCM, rising concerns over Y2K…

Don’t chase this rally. Use healthy pullbacks to buy strong, industry-leading companies. Keep stacking gold and bitcoin. When worse comes to worst, you’ll come out just fine.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.