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Ripple Effect

Tariff Revenues = Rounding Error

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 13, 2025 • 2 minute, 28 second read


government revenuesGovernment SpendingTariff

Tariff Revenues = Rounding Error

The July numbers are in. Unlike the BLS data — which can get “seasonally adjusted” into something unrecognizable months later — the Congressional Budget Office’s tallies are final. What they report es lo que es. It is what it is.

In near real-time, we can see exactly how much Uncle Sam is hauling in from taxes and tariffs… and how much is pouring back out for the military, social programs, and, of course, the ever-growing interest on the national debt.

Even as President Trump touts record tariff revenues, the red ink flows on.

Turn Your Images On

Government continues to spend far in excess of what it brings in, even as tariffs rise. (Source: CBO)

July alone saw a $291 billion deficit — in one month. At this pace, annual deficits could easily run closer to $3 trillion. That money will either be printed or borrowed at rates north of 4%.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) hasn’t made much of a dent in spending, nor have sky-high tariff rates. Which leaves us with a stubborn reality: the deficit remains the single biggest long-term threat to the American success story.

~ Addison

P.S. Some companies are thriving under the shifting tariff regime — and from other Trump policies that are decidedly pro-growth. But “pro-growth” also means you need lower interest rates. At least in the Trump Great Reset playbook.

The tricky part? Government printing debt out of thin air usually means more inflation. Under normal circumstances, the Federal Reserve would be leaving rates unchanged in September… or even raising them.

Therein lies the pickle we’re in.

You can’t let interest payments on the existing debt swallow the government budget. This means that, in addition to “pro-growth” economic strategies, you need lower interest rates.

But lower interest rates also mean higher consumer prices for necessities like energy, food, housing, health care and tuition.

The bond market doesn’t like deficits or debt, either. Investors demand higher interest rates to lend the government money.

Like we said, it’s a pickle.

We’ll be digging into both sides of that equation — plus our latest research — in this week’s Grey Swan Live! on Friday, August 15, 2025… exactly 54 years since Nixon “closed the gold window.” Members will get the sneak peek before anyone else.

A special note to Grey Swan subscribers: This week’s Grey Swan Live! will be held on Friday at 11 a.m., not tomorrow. We’re in the middle of some new groundbreaking research – and will have even more details that afternoon. But our paid-up Fraternity members will get an early sneak peek at what we see developing.

Sneak Peek Grey Swan Live!
 Friday, August 15, 2025
11am ET

We set up a “VIP access” hot list for non-paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. To be reminded before Friday’s event, click on this link and add your name and e-mail to the list.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


American Autonomy

October 28, 2025 • John Robb

America’s role in the world isn’t that of the world’s policeman (a temporary post-World War II role foisted upon the U.S. due to the Cold War) or as the destination of immigrants (for most of the 20th century, when we saw the most significant increases in individual incomes and quality of life, the U.S. didn’t accept many immigrants). Instead, the role the U.S. has played throughout its existence is as the world’s leader in the production, adoption, and socioeconomic integration of new technologies. We figured out how to do it successfully first, and the world followed.

American Autonomy
The Liquidity Illusion

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AMD’s deal with OpenAI is another echo from 1999. OpenAI agreed to buy six gigawatts’ worth of AMD chips — products that don’t yet exist — in exchange for warrants on 160 million AMD shares, about 10% of the company. AMD stock jumped 24% overnight.

And then there’s Oracle’s $300 billion OpenAI contract — five times OpenAI’s annual revenue. Oracle’s stock soared 43% in a day, making Larry Ellison $100 billion richer.

The Liquidity Illusion
Gold’s Relative Strength

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative strength, or RSI, provides investors with a quick glance as to how much the market likes or hates a given asset. The correction is a welcome event for hard asset investors.

With the metal back under $4,000, our thesis remains untouched.

In fact, the pullback  – while sharp and severe – makes  gold a less expensive insurance policy against geopolitical shocks and other Grey Swan events.

Gold’s Relative Strength
Networked Nationalism Rises

October 27, 2025 • John Robb

On the current trajectory, online and offline tribal warfare, with events that range from assassinations to riots to sabotage, is inevitable. Worse still, with both sides waging moral warfare (good versus evil), there is no middle ground, rendering compromise impossible.

To avoid this, the government could step in to crack down on illegal immigrants, serial criminality, and activist blue cells to slow the ramp in extrajudicial violence from the red tribe. This would reduce the chance we see a rapid escalation in tit for tat violence. However, to do this, it would need to designate many activist groups as terrorist entities and pursue them with the degree of vigor we saw with Islamic radicals after 9/11.

Networked Nationalism Rises