Step away for a few days — tinker with your golf swing, maybe start reading that biography of Churchill, maybe cut down and climb up 9 trees in New Hampshire in 100-degree weather — you might think not much has changed.
Markets are placid, earnings are humming, and the headlines are retreading old scandals about pedophiles and the monied elite.
You know, the uzsh…
But just beneath the lull, the slow-motion realignment of money, power, and policy continues.
Among the notables: Trump’s simmering vendetta against Jerome Powell is now a real market risk; copper and rare earths behaving like crypto; and AI doing a little more than threatening white-collar jobs… it’s rewriting corporate org charts.
This week, we return to Swan Dive with a dispatch from the other side of the stillness. The signals are faint, the shifts are deep… let’s begin.
Trump vs. Powell: The Real Volatility
The S&P 500 notched a modest 0.6% gain last week and hasn’t moved more than 1% in either direction for 17 trading sessions — a streak that seems eerily out of step with what’s actually happening.
Behind the calm: Wall Street muckities are quietly repositioning in case Trump does come up with a legal way to fire Jerome Powell.
Such a move would likely lower short-term rates but spike long-term inflation fears — undermining faith in the Fed’s institutional independence and upending bond markets overnight. Take a look at the 30-year Japanese bond.
Soaring Japanese bond yields: A canary in the coal mine for long-dated U.S. Treasuries?
Per Morgan Stanley: “If Powell is dismissed, a short-term bond rally could be overtaken by long-term yield spikes as inflation expectations rise.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s allies are also attacking Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed HQ renovation that’s gone $750 million over budget (so far) — a costly reminder that even monetary temples aren’t immune to political populism.
Trade War Redux: Hard-Wired Chaos
Markets remain oddly indifferent to the Trump tariffs. For now.
After warning 14 countries — including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand — of duties as high as 40%, global markets barely blinked.
Today’s trade casualty? Stellantis, the European parent company of iconic American brand Jeep, posted a surprise $2.7 billion loss. And yet… the S&P ticks higher.
Trump’s announcement last Tuesday about copper tariffs sent copper futures up 17%, the largest intraday spike since 1988. As Axios notes, even meatpackers in Brazil are pulling shipments over Trump’s 50% beef tariffs.
Global equity strategist Serena Yoon of Nomura wrote, “Investors seem to be pricing these announcements as noise — until they aren’t. We expect volatility to return abruptly when supply constraints start showing up in earnings.”
The Steaks Have Never Been Higher
The average ribeye now costs $11.49/lb — a record. Ground beef? $6.12. America’s cattle inventory is at a 70-year low. Drought, feed costs, and high borrowing rates are forcing ranchers to sell rather than breed.
Imports are no savior: Trump’s tariffs on Brazilian beef — our largest foreign supplier — are already chilling trade.
Walmart is building its own beef processing plants to hedge inflation and guarantee supply. America’s largest retailer is now in the meatpacking business. When Walmart is worried about its hamburger supply, you should be, too.
Japan’s PM Hangs On by a Thread
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost his parliamentary majority over the weekend — but won’t step down.
Inflation and Trump’s tariffs are hammering Japan’s economy, and Ishiba insists only he can stabilize things.
Japan’s shrinking political consensus mirrors a growing trend globally: the center isn’t holding, and even seasoned technocrats are clinging to power amid monetary chaos.
Elon Musk: From Cabinet Room to Doge Hat
Remember when Elon Musk showed up at his May 30 White House send-off with a shiner. The explanation given was a parenting mishap involving his five-year-old son.
Who believed that?
Either way, the real bruising has been a professional “own goal.” Bloomberg gleefully poked Musk in the eye again this morning:
We still feel bad for the guy bothering to get involved in politics at all.
Tesla shares are flat, but SpaceX is still flying high in the private markets. Last week, xAi got coders all a-lather with the release of Grok 4.0. xAi is also still a private company.
If you’re a paid member of Grey Swan, didn’t get a chance to review retail opportunities in private equity, and you’d like to, please take a look at our deep dive on Grey Swan Live! with Matt Milner.
AI Ate My Mid-Level Manager
This story is not getting the ink it will come autumn.
Middle managers are vanishing.
Please, hold your comments.
A new report from payroll firm Gusto shows that the staff-to-manager ratio at small firms has doubled since 2019. AI is quietly automating performance reviews, pay decisions, and project management.
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon — they’re all axing mid-tier management to make room for bigger AI budgets. And those steak prices? Good luck negotiating a raise for that.
Want to Be a VC? There’s an App for That
Retail investors are muscling into private equity. SoFi is dropping its investment minimums from $25,000 to $10, giving regular folks a bite at SpaceX, OpenAI, and Epic Games.
EquityZen and Forge now let you in for $5,000. All this comes as the IPO pipeline remains clogged with unicorns that may never go public.
But buyer beware: Robinhood’s European equity “tokens” for SpaceX and OpenAI are under regulatory fire, and Linqto—an early player in this game—just filed for bankruptcy amid an SEC and DOJ probe. (Again, refer to Matt Milner, Grey Swan Live!)
Calm Before the Correction
What else is shaping up this week?
Under the gun, Jerome Powell is due to speak at a banking conference Tuesday. Officially, it’s about policy guidance — but if your betting app has a market on whether he still has a job come September, it might be time to hedge.
Maybe Trump will be distracted. He jets off to Scotland on Friday for trade talks with UK PM Keir Starmer. It’s unclear whether the president will carve up golf deals alongside tariff tweaks, but he will be inspecting one of his new Scottish courses.
More than 20% of the S&P 500 reports Q2 earnings this week. Highlights include Alphabet, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Chipotle. Coca-Cola could also confirm a switch to cane sugar — your nostalgia may soon be sweetened.
Thursday brings June new home sales data. Saturday marks a double anniversary: 250 years of the U.S. Postal Service and 35 years since the Americans with Disabilities Act.
Retail sales rose 4.1% year-over-year through June. Shoppers are buying — cautiously. One strategist called it “wait-and-see season.” Apparently, the season is on sale.
A recent Appriss Retail and Deloitte report found that $685 billion of merchandise was returned in the US last year — $103 billion of which was fraudulent. Empty boxes, worn clothes, bogus claims. It’s a booming industry of bad faith.
University of Michigan’s sentiment index hit a five-month high in June, despite inflation running hotter than forecast. Americans aren’t bullish. They’re bracing.
The new Big Beautiful Bill axed the employer deduction for office snacks. That $32.5 billion in projected tax savings over the next decade? Coming from your break room, granola bars.
That ought to keep us busy…
Overall, markets look fine, and summer feels normal. But beware, institutional integrity is still fraying, AI is consuming hierarchies, food security is cracking, supply chains are being weaponized… and the Fed is, again, in the political crosshairs.
For the gentleman or wisened lady investor watching the façade hold firm, here’s your reminder: cracks run deeper than they appear. Position accordingly.
More on the 9 trees later in today’s Beneath the Surface.
~ Addison
p.s. On Thursday this week, July 24 @ 11 a.m. EST, join us for Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz: “Rare Earth, Real Stakes.”
We’ll cover rare earths, uranium, electric vehicles, and America’s quiet tech arms race with China. Don’t miss it. The resource space is heating up, with uranium and nuclear stocks leading the market higher, and with talk of copper tariffs putting that overlooked metal back on the map. All that, and gold is looking ready to break out higher after several months of consolidation. We’ll cover it all.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
