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Daily Missive

Subprime Democracy

Loading ...Bill Bonner

January 4, 2025 • 4 minute, 22 second read


Subprime Democracy

Raise your glass to the hard-working people
Let’s drink to the uncounted heads
Let’s think of the wavering millions
Who need leading but get gamblers instead

Spare a thought for the stay-at-home voter
His empty eyes gaze at strange beauty shows
And a parade of the gray-suited grafters
A choice of cancer or polio

—Salt of the Earth, Rolling Stones

We have said goodbye to 2024. Now, let us try to dope out the new year. But first, a yellow warning light appears. Breitbart:

Credit Card Defaults Spike to Highest Level Since Aftermath of 2008 Financial Crisis

Credit card lenders wrote off $46 billion in delinquent loan balances in the first three quarters of 2024, a 50 percent increase from the same period last year. These forms of write-offs are viewed as a highly monitored measure of loan distress. This is the highest level since 2010, according to industry data gathered by BankRegData. Mark Zandi, the head of Moody’s Analytics, said, “High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out. Their savings rate right now is zero.”

What? Isn’t this the world’s greatest economy? Aren’t stocks near all-time peaks… and unemployment near all-time lows?

How could the working class be falling behind on its credit card payments?

All around us — except for the mainstream press, which is generally wrong about everything — upbeat commentary and popular euphoria invite optimism.. After all, Trump is soon back in the White House. Pete Hegseth is going to make our military more lethal than ever. ‘Border Czar’ Tom Homan is going to deport the rapists and killers back to Central America. Scott Bessent — a billionaire hedge fund manager — is sure to keep the economy humming along. And two of the world’s most clever billionaires — Musk and Ramaswamy — are going to make the feds more ‘efficient,’ thereby eliminating a $2 trillion annual deficit.

And yet, something is clearly going wrong.

While billionaires get richer, the uncounted heads… the wavering millions… are getting poorer. And what a coincidence; the rich also dominate Wall Street, the banking industry, the press, both political parties and the federal government.

We weren’t born yesterday. The feds produce nothing. So, every penny of federal spending (over $6 trillion in 2024) must come from The People. And every penny must go to other people… the people favored by the controlling elites. It is not surprising that they favor themselves.

Nothing new about this. But in the US, rascality seems to be entering a more flagrant phase… in which the outgoing president pardons his own son (after making an election promise not to do so)… and the incoming president rewards his powerful supporters with the top federal jobs.

In the beginning of a democratic republic, yes, politicians still pinched their secretary’s derrieres and skimmed money from public budgets. But at least they kept it quiet… and were generally ashamed when it came out.

Those old limits — both written and customary — kept those in power from taking too much from those not-in-power. Even kings and queens learned not to squeeze their subjects too hard, lest their own heads be put onto the chopping blocks. As Voltaire remarked, ‘the best form of government is a monarchy… with an occasional beheading.’

In a democracy, public executions of politicians are regrettably rare. As a deterrent, losing an election is not nearly as effective as losing a head. Besides, the system is so rigged up in favor of the ruling class that rarely do members of Congress lose their seats. In the most recent example, 96% of those up for election won another term, even though Congress has only a 15% approval rating. The voters have figured it out. Why bother to boot a scoundrel out of office, when another ‘grey suited grafter’ will just take his place?

We must now be arriving at some near-end stage of the democratic progress. The Constitution is ignored… deficits don’t matter… and the degenerates have become greedy and ruthless. Debt and inflation increase and real output goes down.

Federal appointees are no longer chosen on the basis of their competence, but on the degree of loyalty to the chief executive. That is, they are not expected to uphold the principles of the founders, but to find ways around the restraints in order to fulfill the Maximum Ruler’s agenda, whatever it is.

In a better system, a real leader… or a savvy monarch… would tell the people the truth — that the US is headed for bankruptcy. He would get out the chainsaw and hack away at federal spending until receipts equaled expenses.

But to everything there is a season. A time to be born and a time to die. We are somewhere in between. Too old to rock and roll; too young to die. America is not ready for a Milei-style revolution. Not ready for an American perestroika. Not ready for the chainsaw.

Instead, it chooses the gambler. He’ll want to keep the grift going for as long as possible, accumulating as much wealth and power as possible… while pushing the inevitable calamity as far as he can into the future.

We spare a thought for the salt of the earth…and hope for the best for the year ahead…

Stay tuned…

Regards,

Bill Bonner



Gold’s $4,000 Moment

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.

In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.

Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.

Gold’s $4,000 Moment
The 45% Club

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.

JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.

The 45% Club
George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.

Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy