Stocks Hit a 12 Year Low

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the FOMC meeting yesterday. Jerome Powell explaining the board felt like inflation is in check, but still higher than they’d like. But their interest rate lever has little effect on the dollar’s value against other currencies globally.

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

The intrepid Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert will help us dig in show us how owning property – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S. And, done properly, can be a great source of income.

Ronan’s going to treat us to real estate deals he’s got cooking in Mexico, Panama and Paraguay… it’s going to be a welcome tropical topic after this week’s bout with winter weather in North America.

Ronan’s also been scouting property in Venezuela – yes, Venezuela – following Trump’s abrupt capture of Nicolas Maduro to kick off the new year. We haven’t spoken to him yet about this property, but we’ve heard he found beachfront condos for $15,000. Not everyone’s cup of tea, for sure. But if you’re into crisis investing… well, we’ll find out what deals Ronan has found.

And on Friday, for paid-up annual Fraternity members, we’ll have a special session reviewing our model portfolio with Andrew Packer. As always, we’ll go over the charts on all our model portfolio positions and what we expect amid the unfolding chaos of 2026.

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.

The first is the cost of borrowing. After the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, rates are rolling over. Trump wants them at 1%. Jerome Powell’s term ends at the Fed on May 15. The path is being cleared for a true believer in lower interest rates to take his spot.

The second is the cost of living. Oil has fallen from $95 to just over $60 in a year. Gas is averaging $2.88 nationally. And because oil feeds into everything — shipping, food, plastics — falling prices cascade across the economy. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro is not a coincidence. Venezuela is one of the leading exporters in the OPEC block of oil producers.

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.

Over the past year, gold has climbed more than 80%.

Why?

Because inflation isn’t dead. Because debt isn’t sustainable. Because equities look priced to perfection. Because bonds yield less than honest work. And because every institution you thought was safe is now a political football.

Is it peak gold? Maybe. But previous gold rallies have lasted for years. The storm hasn’t passed — it’s only beginning to darken. Many of the risks keeping investors up at night are unlikely to go away soon.

The S&P 500 may be sitting near a record 7,000. But relative to gold, it’s been in decline.

Over the past three years, the market is up 45%, but gold is up 180%. Today the ratio of the S&P to gold is down to 1.39.