Stocks Hit a 12 Year Low

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the FOMC meeting yesterday. Jerome Powell explaining the board felt like inflation is in check, but still higher than they’d like. But their interest rate lever has little effect on the dollar’s value against other currencies globally.

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

The intrepid Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert will help us dig in show us how owning property – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S. And, done properly, can be a great source of income.

Ronan’s going to treat us to real estate deals he’s got cooking in Mexico, Panama and Paraguay… it’s going to be a welcome tropical topic after this week’s bout with winter weather in North America.

Ronan’s also been scouting property in Venezuela – yes, Venezuela – following Trump’s abrupt capture of Nicolas Maduro to kick off the new year. We haven’t spoken to him yet about this property, but we’ve heard he found beachfront condos for $15,000. Not everyone’s cup of tea, for sure. But if you’re into crisis investing… well, we’ll find out what deals Ronan has found.

And on Friday, for paid-up annual Fraternity members, we’ll have a special session reviewing our model portfolio with Andrew Packer. As always, we’ll go over the charts on all our model portfolio positions and what we expect amid the unfolding chaos of 2026.

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!