Stocks Hit a 12 Year Low

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the FOMC meeting yesterday. Jerome Powell explaining the board felt like inflation is in check, but still higher than they’d like. But their interest rate lever has little effect on the dollar’s value against other currencies globally.

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

The intrepid Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert will help us dig in show us how owning property – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S. And, done properly, can be a great source of income.

Ronan’s going to treat us to real estate deals he’s got cooking in Mexico, Panama and Paraguay… it’s going to be a welcome tropical topic after this week’s bout with winter weather in North America.

Ronan’s also been scouting property in Venezuela – yes, Venezuela – following Trump’s abrupt capture of Nicolas Maduro to kick off the new year. We haven’t spoken to him yet about this property, but we’ve heard he found beachfront condos for $15,000. Not everyone’s cup of tea, for sure. But if you’re into crisis investing… well, we’ll find out what deals Ronan has found.

And on Friday, for paid-up annual Fraternity members, we’ll have a special session reviewing our model portfolio with Andrew Packer. As always, we’ll go over the charts on all our model portfolio positions and what we expect amid the unfolding chaos of 2026.

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low:

Turn Your Images On Measured in the purchasing power of gold, stocks are at a 12-year low. (Source: Bloomberg)

Early in 2026, investors are getting a hard look at what stocks, the dollar and precious metals are really “worth”.

At currents our forecast for gold to eventually top $20,000 is still on trend, too. If you’d like to check our premise… and math… we released our initial findings just over a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Later today on Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. ET we’ll take a look at another global asset that appreciates well when the dollar gets whacked.

Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.

Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.

Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.