Stocks Can’t Get Much More Expensive Than This

With stocks within sight of new all-time highs, a danger we noted in the spring is back—markets are historically overvalued once again.

One measure of looking at the stock market is comparing its current valuation metrics to its historical average.

On an earnings basis, markets are now back to two times standard deviations over their average:

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The S&P 500 saw a short dip following Liberation Day in April… but is back to nosebleed valuations. (Source: Andrew Packer)

Only 5% of the time, the stock market is more expensive than it is now.

With corporate earnings yet to reflect the impact of tariffs – and with many of those tariffs likely to come inching back in July – it may be time to take some profits off the table following the stock market’s stellar rebound.

This doesn’t mean the market can crater immediately overnight in another Liberation Day move, but it does mean easy money has been made, and it’s time to start packing up.

Panic now, avoid the rush.

~ Addison

With stocks within sight of new all-time highs, a danger we noted in the spring is back—markets are historically overvalued once again.

One measure of looking at the stock market is comparing its current valuation metrics to its historical average.

On an earnings basis, markets are now back to two times standard deviations over their average:

Turn Your Images On

The S&P 500 saw a short dip following Liberation Day in April… but is back to nosebleed valuations. (Source: Andrew Packer)

Only 5% of the time, the stock market is more expensive than it is now.

This doesn’t mean the market can crater immediately overnight in another Liberation Day move, but it does mean easy money has been made, and it’s time to start packing up.

Panic now, avoid the rush.

~ Addison

After leading stocks for most of 2026, the sell-off in the semiconductor space has taken off. But there’s another key component to the story.

Uranium is one of many oversold sectors. But when commodity stocks get oversold, the move higher tends to be strong…

The dollar’s unique position as a fiat currency serving as the global reserve currency, cloaking dysfunctional government spending.

The AI buildout has reached historic proportions. As a consequence, everyone’s already in the pool… and borrowing more to swim extra laps…

After leading stocks for most of 2026, the sell-off in the semiconductor space has taken off. But there’s another key component to the story.

Uranium is one of many oversold sectors. But when commodity stocks get oversold, the move higher tends to be strong…

The dollar’s unique position as a fiat currency serving as the global reserve currency, cloaking dysfunctional government spending.

The AI buildout has reached historic proportions. As a consequence, everyone’s already in the pool… and borrowing more to swim extra laps…