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Ripple Effect

Stocks Can’t Get Much More Expensive Than This

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 26, 2025 • 51 second read

market valuation
Stocks Can’t Get Much More Expensive Than This

With stocks within sight of new all-time highs, a danger we noted in the spring is back—markets are historically overvalued once again.

One measure of looking at the stock market is comparing its current valuation metrics to its historical average.

On an earnings basis, markets are now back to two times standard deviations over their average:

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The S&P 500 saw a short dip following Liberation Day in April… but is back to nosebleed valuations. (Source: Andrew Packer)

Only 5% of the time, the stock market is more expensive than it is now.

With corporate earnings yet to reflect the impact of tariffs – and with many of those tariffs likely to come inching back in July – it may be time to take some profits off the table following the stock market’s stellar rebound.

This doesn’t mean the market can crater immediately overnight in another Liberation Day move, but it does mean easy money has been made, and it’s time to start packing up.

Panic now, avoid the rush.

~ Addison

Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still

July 11, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.

Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still
Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

July 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t
The Rally That Didn’t Flinch

July 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we knock off for the week approaching mid-summer, it strikes us how hard it is to distinguish signal from noise. Markets defying gravity gives us pause.

Don’t buy in at elevated prices.

Keep your asset allocation in full view.

Buy cheap.

Sell dear.

It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

AI is buying engineers like they’re first-round picks. The military is investing in rare earths like it’s the 1950s space race. Tariffs are flying, cocoa’s getting scarce, and your cereal may soon come with a luxury markup.

None of it, likely, concerns your portfolio.

The Rally That Didn’t Flinch
Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?

July 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

This new wave of tokenized shares is exciting. It has the potential to break down walls and democratize access to pre-IPO giants.

But at the moment, it’s also risky, opaque, and largely unregulated.

So while we applaud the innovation, we urge caution — especially if you’re being offered something that seems too good to be true.

Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?