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Daily Missive

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 17, 2025 • 5 minute, 44 second read


Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025 — America has always prided itself on not being a socialist nation. But President Donald Trump now hails a new “golden age” — sold with the optimism of Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” but built on Washington’s intrusion into corporate ownership. The federal government already imposes one of the world’s most progressive tax systems, runs health care, subsidizes education, guarantees pensions, and now wields voting powers in corporate boardrooms. When bureaucrats become shareholders, it is not a sign of national strength, but of institutional failure.

Indeed, a union of republics once placed government at the very center of its economy. Born from revolution in 1917, it promised freedom of speech, but what followed was no freedom — only years of forced labor in the gulag archipelago. Though blessed with fertile land and an agricultural heritage, it presided over the starvation of 7 to 10 million people in Ukraine. Walls across Eastern Europe were erected not to keep foreigners out, but to ensure its own population could not leave. Even its greatest feats of science collapsed under the weight of mismanagement. Chernobyl’s nuclear reactor, meant to showcase progress, instead exposed the catastrophic costs and flaws of central planning, scarring land and lives for generations. To this day, the USSR remains the clearest example of what happens when the government tries to command the economy. Its collapse in 1991 marked the end of a 74-year socialist experiment — one that failed, and need not be repeated.

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

The bipartisan obsession with all things “made in America” has been met with staunch support on both sides of the aisle. The political left and right have formed a horseshoe, both embracing government intervention as the way forward. Senator Bernie Sanders supports the current US administration in its pursuit of a stake in Intel: “if microchip companies make a profit from the generous grants they receive from the federal government, the taxpayers of America have a right to a reasonable return on that investment.” Across the now-invisible partisan aisle, President Donald Trump states, “I negotiated this Deal with Lip-Bu Tan, the Highly Respected Chief Executive Officer of the Company. The United States paid nothing for these Shares, and the Shares are now valued at approximately $11 Billion Dollars. This is a great Deal for America and, also, a great Deal for INTEL.”

The irony is striking: a government $37 trillion in debt cannot balance its own books, yet plays venture capitalist with taxpayer money. Furthermore, if Intel was a true champion it would not need the full weight of the US government for support in an industry where it is clearly lagging behind its competition, Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world. The decision should not be how much to intervene in these companies, or the economy, but to not intervene at all.

Once upon a time, Donald Trump was voted to drain the swamp and cast out corruption. Transplanting swamp creatures from Washington into corporate boardrooms does not end corruption, but it entrenches it. Acting on privileged information, the so-called “Rich Men North of Richmond,” our elected politicians, are growing richer by the year.

“More than 20 members made almost double the S&P 500 average gain of 24.9 percent last year,” The Independent reported. “The top five performers — Rep. David Rouzer (R-NC), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), Ron Wyden (D-OR), Roger Williams (R-TX), Morgan McGarvey (D-KY) — increased the value of their portfolio…by more than 100 percent.”

If this is how politicians trade when they only regulate, imagine what happens when Commerce officials hand politicians access to shareholders’ meetings. In addition to this, Pew Research Center highlights that only 20 percent of Americans trust the federal government. Setting money and trust aside, government officials are already calling for the resignation of the CEO of Intel. Interestingly enough, just across the Pacific Ocean, the Chinese Communist Party, who has a stake in Alibaba, the fourth largest firm in China, had its CEO, China’s richest man, Jack Ma disappear for five years. Does the future Intel CEO need to wonder whether criticizing Washington could one day carry similar risks?

The federal government is not a venture capitalist that can afford to invest with borrowed dollars, and importing Washington politics to boardrooms will not make American firms competitive again. History teaches that when states place themselves at the center of economies, the result is coercion, corruption, and collapse. America’s strength has always been its entrepreneurs, not its politicians. As Ludwig von Mises warned in his 1944 Bureaucracy, “government is not a profit-seeking enterprise. The conduct of its affairs cannot be checked by profit-and-loss statements. Its achievement cannot be valued in terms of money.” When politicians direct capital, they do so without accountability to market signals, and the result is wasted resources. If this is truly the “golden age” the President claims, it looks far more like a Gilded Age — glittering on the surface, hollow beneath — just as Mark Twain warned more than a century ago. America doesn’t need a gilded age of government inside boardrooms; it needs a renewed age of independent entrepreneurship.

Stefan Bartl
The Daily Economy & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: As expected, rate cuts are back. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates a quarter point this afternoon, and hinted at two more rate cuts this year – in-line with our expectations to lower rates, focus on rising unemployment, but not move so quickly that investors panic.

In Grey Swan Live! with Adam O’Dell tomorrow, we’ll explore policy changes the Trump administration is making to encourage $10 trillion in money market funds parked on the sidelines during the terrifying bull market on Wall Street to get in the game!

Mr. O’Dell suggests this may be the most significant transfer of wealth in our lifetimes… greater than 2009-’10 amid the Global Financial Crisis. We’ll dig into the details on Thursday. Here’s how you can join us.

Turn Your Images On

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.


Gold’s $4,000 Moment

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.

In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.

Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.

Gold’s $4,000 Moment
The 45% Club

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.

JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.

The 45% Club
George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.

Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy