Source of the “Debasement Trade”

The global money supply is growing quickly.

Still.

M2 — cash — is up $8 trillion in the past six months alone.

Annualized, global money is growing at a 12% rate. That’s 6 times the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and over 4 times the current pace:

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While headline inflation is still under 3%, global money supply has grown 12% annually since 2020. (Source: Croseus_BTC via X)

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Still.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! — Thursday, October 23, at 2 p.m. ET — we’re going down the Anatomy of a Stock Market Bubble: the impressive list of historical records this terrifying bull market has already hit — including retail investor buy-in, record margin debt and capital concentration at the top of the S&P 500.

We’ll also lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we think this market is going.

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As Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of Too Big To Fail, said this week while promoting his new book “1929,” if we’re all in agreement this is a bubble in AI stocks, the trick is to “know when to get on [and more importantly] get off, the wave.”

Then, on Friday, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

During the review session on Friday, we’ll be giving you access to an exclusive Plunge Protection Plan (for annual members only), including ways you can protect your money against a stock market correction and a few aggressive ways you can make money like the pros when the stock market goes down.

(Note: You still have time to subscribe and get the Plan on Friday. Click here for details.)

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now, mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

The time to prepare for a market correction is before it happens, not while or after. If you wait too long, the exits will get crowded in a hurry… and you don’t want to be worrying about your money if and when that happens.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The global money supply is growing quickly.

Still.

M2 — cash — is up $8 trillion in the past six months alone.

Annualized, global money is growing at a 12% rate. That’s 6 times the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and over 4 times the current pace:

Turn Your Images On

While headline inflation is still under 3%, global money supply has grown 12% annually since 2020. (Source: Croseus_BTC via X)

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Still.

~ Addison

We’ll also lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we think this market is going.

Turn Your Images On

Then, on Friday, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

(Note: You still have time to subscribe and get the Plan on Friday. Click here for details.)

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now, mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Here goes:

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.