Source of the “Debasement Trade”

The global money supply is growing quickly.

Still.

M2 — cash — is up $8 trillion in the past six months alone.

Annualized, global money is growing at a 12% rate. That’s 6 times the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and over 4 times the current pace:

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While headline inflation is still under 3%, global money supply has grown 12% annually since 2020. (Source: Croseus_BTC via X)

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Still.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! — Thursday, October 23, at 2 p.m. ET — we’re going down the Anatomy of a Stock Market Bubble: the impressive list of historical records this terrifying bull market has already hit — including retail investor buy-in, record margin debt and capital concentration at the top of the S&P 500.

We’ll also lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we think this market is going.

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As Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of Too Big To Fail, said this week while promoting his new book “1929,” if we’re all in agreement this is a bubble in AI stocks, the trick is to “know when to get on [and more importantly] get off, the wave.”

Then, on Friday, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

During the review session on Friday, we’ll be giving you access to an exclusive Plunge Protection Plan (for annual members only), including ways you can protect your money against a stock market correction and a few aggressive ways you can make money like the pros when the stock market goes down.

(Note: You still have time to subscribe and get the Plan on Friday. Click here for details.)

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now, mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

The time to prepare for a market correction is before it happens, not while or after. If you wait too long, the exits will get crowded in a hurry… and you don’t want to be worrying about your money if and when that happens.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The global money supply is growing quickly.

Still.

M2 — cash — is up $8 trillion in the past six months alone.

Annualized, global money is growing at a 12% rate. That’s 6 times the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and over 4 times the current pace:

Turn Your Images On

While headline inflation is still under 3%, global money supply has grown 12% annually since 2020. (Source: Croseus_BTC via X)

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Still.

~ Addison

We’ll also lay out in simple terms the AI crash scenario. Mostly, so you’re aware of what’s at stake, where we think this market is going.

Turn Your Images On

Then, on Friday, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET, we’re going to do a comprehensive asset allocation and model portfolio review for paid-up annual members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

(Note: You still have time to subscribe and get the Plan on Friday. Click here for details.)

We’ll be providing more details throughout the week. But for now, mark your calendar for these two dates:

Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — comprehensive overview of the “terrifying bull market.”
Friday, October 24, 2025 @ 2 p.m. ET — a comprehensive review of the Grey Swan asset allocation strategy and model portfolio. (For paid up annual members only)

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.