In the listless heat of late July, the stock market lollygags upward. The Nasdaq closed at yet another record high yesterday – it’s 81st in 2025.
Alphabet and Tesla delivered results that turned heads. But, as we’ll see, not for the same reasons.
Market fundamentals are still showing signs of wear: corporate insiders are selling, and earnings this week have masked inflation. As Bloomberg put it today, “Investors are betting big on Big Tech — while insiders quietly head for the exits.”
Trump, a sitting president, is using the Federal Reserve as a campaign backdrop, belying the illusion that the Fed is independent.
Yesterday, we re-posted a video from Ray Dalio on our X page .
The video has twelve million views. But that’s irrelevant. What’s important: It shows how credit and debt actually work in the economy. And what role the Federal Reserve is “supposed” to play.
Trump To Visit the Fed — Literally
In a historic move, President Trump scheduled a tour of the Federal Reserve’s HQ yesterday — the first such visit by a sitting president in two decades.
Officially, it’s about renovation costs.
Unofficially, it’s the latest salvo in Trump’s war on Jerome Powell.
Trump told reporters, “I won’t fire him over paint and carpet.” But he reiterated that rates remain too high and that Powell’s days may still be numbered.
This is not just posturing — it’s part of Trump’s broader vision for a financial Great Reset: central bank subjugation, trade dominance, and asset class upheaval.
The market may be rallying, but a tweet and a handshake increasingly govern monetary policy.
Alphabet Lifts, Tesla Lags
Earnings season can be fun… or brutal.
Alphabet beat expectations, buoyed by its advertising business and an $85 billion capital expenditures forecast — the bulk of which is headed straight into the data centers powering AI. “Our AI overview product now has two billion monthly users,” execs beamed.
Tesla, however, followed the wrong GPS directions. Shares fell 8.2% after reporting a 16% drop in vehicle sales and warning of more “rough quarters” ahead.
Musk’s flirtation with politics and a looming expiration of EV tax credits didn’t help. “If Musk continues to lead…we believe Tesla is on a path to accelerated growth,” said Wedbush’s Dan Ives — though investors aren’t quite convinced.
Tesla is now down 24.4% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing member of the Magnificent Seven. And a reminder that private enterprise and politics do not mix.
Chipotle’s Scary Quarter
Chipotle, too, tumbled 13.34% after reporting its second straight quarter of declining sales.
Same-store sales fell 4% in Q2, worse than the expected 2.9%. Tariff fears are rattling consumer confidence, and Chipotle now expects flat sales through the rest of the year.
This is the second consecutive quarter it’s had to revise guidance downward. We’re viewing it as a proxy for an emerging trend in consumer spending. If consumers can’t afford guac when they go out for a burrito, what does that say about the economy?
FCC Clears Paramount Merger After Colbert Cancellation
The Paramount-Skydance merger got the green light from the FCC, after the administration wrung out concessions on political neutrality and content diversity.
The deal followed Paramount’s $16 million settlement with Trump over CBS election interference claims, and the abrupt cancellation of The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.
Some call it political score-settling. Others call it Wednesday.
Corporate Speech Gets Another Caution Flag
Citigroup quietly asked a trading desk head to delete a post critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza, citing internal “neutrality” guidelines.
The post, which referenced starvation in the region, adds to a pattern: as Trump backs Israel unequivocally, companies, universities, and nonprofits are scrambling to tighten speech policies.
Meanwhile, the U.S. issued a rare diplomatic rebuke of France after President Macron announced plans to recognize a Palestinian state in September.
Sydney Sells Jeans and Shares
American Eagle shares jumped 18% premarket after launching a campaign featuring Euphoria’s Sydney Sweeney. The ad, cheekily titled “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” brought attention — and short squeezes.
American Eagle stock has dropped 32% this year, but about 13% of its float is sold short. Retail traders, sniffing opportunity, rushed in.
Another sign that…
Meme Stocks Are Back (Again)
Healthcare Triangle surged 115% yesterday on… nothing. More than 3 billion shares traded, comprising 15% of total U.S. volume.
Names like GoPro, Krispy Kreme, Opendoor, and Kohl’s are also making the meme rounds. “It’s like 2021 all over again,” wrote one trader on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets.
Kohl’s is not a profitable company. It’s brick and mortar. And has made no plans for acquisitions or turnarounds.
However, AMC movie theaters and GameStop (also unprofitable brick-and-mortar companies in 2020-21) have become “memes” among young traders on social media platforms like Reddit. And the trend continues today…
Meme traders bid up specific companies… in this case Kohl’s… simply by talking about them in their chats and posting incredibly risky options trades in meme stocks – often referred to as “bets” and, in a moment of honesty, “degenerate gambling.”
It’s a popular game among millennial traders. Buy high, sell higher.
Just don’t be the last one to hold the stock when everyone tries to get out.
Short selling is a part of the game, too. So it’s risky. A lot of their speculation is done on margin.
Regulators and brokers seem willing to let the mania run — for now — as long as volume stays high and fees keep rolling in.
Wall Street Wants Another Crack At Your Retirement Money
KKR, Blackstone, and Blue Owl are lobbying hard for Trump’s upcoming executive order to allow alternative assets in 401(k)s.
Critics say it’s too risky for everyday investors. Our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer notes that the higher fees on these products eat into – and often past – the higher returns that these assets can earn over the stock market.
Proponents say mom and pop deserve the same opportunities as endowments and pension funds.
The big banks are not just battling for access — they’re trying to get first in line for the $12.5 trillion retirement pool – and a big source of fee revenue.
Next stop: crypto. Watch this space.
Ireland’s Grid Short-Circuits Amazon
Amazon canceled plans for a major facility in Dublin, citing power shortages. This is a big blow to Ireland’s economy, which depends heavily on U.S. tech investment.
Trump’s trade rhetoric may also be spooking foreign investment, as some Dáil members are pushing for more self-sufficiency.
Durable Goods, Light Calendar Ahead
Markets are coasting into the weekend.
Durable goods orders are the only data on tap today, while remaining earnings will trickle in from HCA, Charter, Phillips 66, Centene, Booz Allen, and AutoNation.
Going into the weekend, let’s not mistake quiet for calm.
With meme stocks swirling, Trump openly jawboning the Fed, and insiders still net sellers in 90% of companies, volatility is simmering just beneath the surface.
And the real economy is showing strains like this:
Credit card interest rates have risen aggressively from 14.56% to 21.16% in just 3.5 years. (Source: Bravo Research)
The gentleman investor knows: rallies feel safe. But there’s always more to the story. Have a good weekend.
~ Addison
p.s. Grey Swan Live! yesterday with Shad Marquitz was stellar — we covered rare earths, the Defense Department, and the tangled geopolitical web behind AI supply chains.
Fraternity members can catch the replay this afternoon, as we’re still getting the video polished and ready to post in our Video Archives section.
Shad reviewed the supply and demand fundamentals in uranium, rare earths, magnets, copper, silver, gold – and Shad ran through his shortlist of stock and ETFs that still look attractive after the recent runup, which are worthy of further research.
We agree with Shad that the move in the resource sector is still in its early stages – and many small-cap companies in the space stand to offer investors the best returns in the years ahead.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
