Silver Gets Hammered As Retail Piles In

Precious metals are seeing their first significant pullback. After topping $120 per ounce, silver has been hammered back to around $100 this morning – a bear market by the numbers.

The quick sell-off is instructive.

Headlines about silver reaching new highs drove new interest from retail investors started to pile into SLV, the silver ETF. The ETF assets reach $50 billion – and at a pace only beaten by the largest bitcoin ETF:

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Inflows into silver ETFs have soared in recent days, with the price of the metal
topping $100 per ounce. (Source: Goldman Sachs)

Pullbacks are to be expected. Gold and bitcoin sold off yesterday, as well. Our view, the metals – and BTC – are still in a multi-year uptrend.

The analysis we’ve published of the main drivers for gold applies to silver and bitcoin, too. The latter two, however, remain more speculative and gap down and spike up more dramatically.

If you’re leveraged to silver, whether through mining companies, ETFs, or the like, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table. And keep your eyes peeled for future moves upward.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! proved a masterclass in how to look for international real estate deals. Ronan’s business model is unique. He’s able to bring serious negotiating weight to the table with developers in markets you’re most likely to find both rental income and capital appreciation.

The intrepid Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert explained his system, and showed how owning property – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S. And, done properly, can be a great source of retirement income.

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The replay will be up on the site shortly.

Real estate plays an important role in the asset allocation model we model out for Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members. Later today, at 2 p.m. ET, for paid-up annual Fraternity members, we’ll have a special session reviewing our model portfolio with Andrew Packer. As always, we’ll go over the charts on all our model portfolio positions and what we expect amid the unfolding chaos (and opportunities) of 2026.

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Precious metals are seeing their first significant pullback. After topping $120 per ounce, silver has been hammered back to around $100 this morning – a bear market by the numbers.

The quick sell-off is instructive.

Turn Your Images On

Inflows into silver ETFs have soared in recent days, with the price of the metal
topping $100 per ounce. (Source: Goldman Sachs)

Pullbacks are to be expected. Gold and bitcoin sold off yesterday, as well. Our view, the metals – and BTC – are still in a multi-year uptrend.

The analysis we’ve published of the main drivers for gold applies to silver and bitcoin, too. The latter two, however, remain more speculative and gap down and spike up more dramatically.

If you’re leveraged to silver, whether through mining companies, ETFs, or the like, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table. And keep your eyes peeled for future moves upward.

~ Addison

Turn Your Images On

The replay will be up on the site shortly.

Turn Your Images On

In one refrain from our book Empire of Debt, we warned that late-stage credit systems always suffer the same fate: the debasement of money disguised as growth. Ray Dalio said the quiet part out loud in an interview yesterday:

“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”

Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.

In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.

In California, Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and other Silicon Valley billionaires are backing a new pro-business PAC to fight a proposed 5% wealth tax on the state’s 200 richest residents. Larry Page has already moved to Florida. The line to Nevada is forming.

Ray Dalio, again, with the map:

“When governments run large deficits and the debt is no longer bought willingly, they have two choices: raise taxes and cut spending, or print money. Those that can print, do. Those that can’t, fall apart.”

Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low.

Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.

The first is the cost of borrowing. After the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, rates are rolling over. Trump wants them at 1%. Jerome Powell’s term ends at the Fed on May 15. The path is being cleared for a true believer in lower interest rates to take his spot.

The second is the cost of living. Oil has fallen from $95 to just over $60 in a year. Gas is averaging $2.88 nationally. And because oil feeds into everything — shipping, food, plastics — falling prices cascade across the economy. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro is not a coincidence. Venezuela is one of the leading exporters in the OPEC block of oil producers.

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.

“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”

Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.

In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.

Ray Dalio, again, with the map:

Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number— this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low.

Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.