Shutdown Theatre

President Trump isn’t afraid to etch his name beside another government shutdown. The 2018–19 freeze, at 35 days, was the longest in U.S. history.

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The pattern is telling: shutdowns have grown longer over the decades, even if not rarer. Since 1976, there have been 20, lasting an average of eight days.

This week, funding runs out at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. Republicans want a stopgap until Nov. 21. Democrats demand health-care subsidies and Medicaid money restored. Neither side blinks. Political hacks calculate the GOP lacks the 60 Senate votes to do it alone.

For Democrats, meanwhile, healthcare – specifically for undocumented immigrants, for some reason — is the hill they have chosen to fight on.

For Trump, the stalemate is an opening.

Agencies have been told to prepare furloughs, but also to consider permanent cuts. That’s the iceberg under the surface: not just a pause, but a chance to finish what DOGE only advised.

Gold’s Relentless Run

Gold notched its 38th record high this year. Futures are up 43% year-to-date — the best streak since 1979.

We note that even Investopedia is advertising ways to add gold and silver to your retirement portfolio now.

This month alone, gold has risen more than 10%.

The ineptitude of Congress and an impending shutdown only add fuel. “Gold is a refuge from political instability,” Steve Forbes reminded us again, “and economic uncertainty, inflation, deflation, and currency depreciation.”

A study covered by Bloomberg reports U.S. reserves are now “worth more than $1 trillion at current market prices.”

Officially, America’s hoard is worth only $11 billion. The Treasury still books them at $42.22 per ounce, the 1973 figure set when polyester ties were wide.

The discrepancy is comical. But it points to deeper stress.

Treasuries are being issued at a record pace to fund deficits. Dealers choke on the supply, repo markets flare, collateral chains fray. Sanctions — remember the freezing of a G20 country’s reserves in 2022 — pushed central banks into gold as the only sanction-proof store of value. Add structural supply constraints and China’s rising appetite, and the path of least resistance stays higher.

Another Kushner Play

Stocks climbed like ivy yesterday, modest but stubborn. Investors know the week ahead may bring no jobs report, no CPI print — a government shutdown will furlough workers and blackout data.

Electronic Arts kept its run alive, confirming its $55 billion take-private.

The deal — led by Jared Kushner’s group — would be the largest leveraged buyout ever. JPMorgan’s $20 billion financing is being called a “Wall Street victory” against the private credit industry. It also binds the gaming giant’s fate to debt markets at a time when liquidity is fickle.

Planes, Pain, and Chips

Airlines are losing altitude. Delta says business travel’s return can’t offset a tougher consumer economy; most U.S. carriers will lose money this year. Boeing is sketching the 737 Max’s successor even as safety fears linger from last year’s midair panel blowout.

Southwest has already shot itself in the foot by giving up all the practices that made it a standout in the industry: bags no longer fly free and getting flights changed with seat assignments is far more complicated than it used to be with its trademark cattle boarding process.

In other mainstream financial news, Google agreed to pay $24.5 million to settle Trump’s YouTube censorship claim, the Korean chip startup Rebellions raised $1.4 billion, while pandemic darling Anthology filed for bankruptcy.

The churn is relentless: one startup rises, another falls, always in the shadow of AI. Also reminiscent of the dotcoms two decades ago.

Tariffs on Timber, Movies, and More

Yesterday, Trump added softwood timber to his tariff arsenal — 10%. He floated more equity stake ideas in critical mineral producers.

And the headline grabber: a 100% tariff on foreign-made films, plus “substantial tariffs” on furniture.

“Our movie-making business has been stolen… like stealing candy from a baby,” Trump posted. No word yet on carveouts for AI actresses like Tilly Norwood, the eerily human performer whose agents now pitch her as “the next Scarlett Johansson.”

Hollywood veterans aren’t charmed. Whoopi Goldberg scoffed: “AI actors can’t replicate human performance.”

996 Comes to Silicon Valley

Work culture once meant happy hours and free kombucha. Now it’s “996”—9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. Startups openly advertise 70-hour weeks. “Why would I go drink at a bar if I can be building a company?” a 23-year-old founder told The Wall Street Journal.

Ramp’s card data shows Saturday lunches rising in San Francisco; desks replace dancefloors. Google’s CEO calls for 60-hour weeks. Eric Schmidt says tradeoffs are needed to compete with China. But in China, 996 already proved deadly. After a 22-year-old woman collapsed after midnight overtime, regulators banned it — though weakly enforced.

Short term, the grind may yield products. Long term, it risks bodies. The line between hustle and harm is thin.

Butter at the Top

The Cantillon Effect, dressed in dairy: we observed last week, high earners tilt the scales for consumer spending. While shoppers pinch pennies on coffee and syrup, sales of premium butter surged by double digits last year.

Regular butter rose just 1.1%. But what’s this?

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Aficionados say posh butter “sits on the tongue a little more.” Others discovered it on European vacations. There’s also a backlash, led by RFK’s health secretary, against margarine and ultra-processed foods.

The world is “losing its mind about butter,” Bloomberg analysts exclaim.

Today’s market news is relatively simple. Premium butter is noise. Gold’s surge is a signal. History offers the rhyme: in the 1930s, Roosevelt revalued gold higher to recapitalize the system. Investors are now front-running the possibility of similar moves.

~Addison

P.S.: Grey Swan Live! returns this Thursday at 2 p.m. ET with Mark Jeftovic. We’ll have much to discuss with the latest government shutdown, gold’s historic rise, a possible bitcoin correction in 2026, and more. Make sure you’re a member… and make sure Live! is on your calendar. More details to come.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com.

President Trump isn’t afraid to etch his name beside another government shutdown. The 2018–19 freeze, at 35 days, was the longest in U.S. history.

Turn Your Images On

The pattern is telling: shutdowns have grown longer over the decades, even if not rarer. Since 1976, there have been 20, lasting an average of eight days.

For Democrats, meanwhile, healthcare – specifically for undocumented immigrants, for some reason — is the hill they have chosen to fight on.

For Trump, the stalemate is an opening.

Agencies have been told to prepare furloughs, but also to consider permanent cuts. That’s the iceberg under the surface: not just a pause, but a chance to finish what DOGE only advised.

Gold’s Relentless Run

Gold notched its 38th record high this year. Futures are up 43% year-to-date — the best streak since 1979.

We note that even Investopedia is advertising ways to add gold and silver to your retirement portfolio now.

This month alone, gold has risen more than 10%.

A study covered by Bloomberg reports U.S. reserves are now “worth more than $1 trillion at current market prices.”

Officially, America’s hoard is worth only $11 billion. The Treasury still books them at $42.22 per ounce, the 1973 figure set when polyester ties were wide.

The discrepancy is comical. But it points to deeper stress.

Another Kushner Play

Stocks climbed like ivy yesterday, modest but stubborn. Investors know the week ahead may bring no jobs report, no CPI print — a government shutdown will furlough workers and blackout data.

Electronic Arts kept its run alive, confirming its $55 billion take-private.

Planes, Pain, and Chips

The churn is relentless: one startup rises, another falls, always in the shadow of AI. Also reminiscent of the dotcoms two decades ago.

Tariffs on Timber, Movies, and More

Yesterday, Trump added softwood timber to his tariff arsenal — 10%. He floated more equity stake ideas in critical mineral producers.

And the headline grabber: a 100% tariff on foreign-made films, plus “substantial tariffs” on furniture.

Hollywood veterans aren’t charmed. Whoopi Goldberg scoffed: “AI actors can’t replicate human performance.”

996 Comes to Silicon Valley

Short term, the grind may yield products. Long term, it risks bodies. The line between hustle and harm is thin.

Butter at the Top

Regular butter rose just 1.1%. But what’s this?

Turn Your Images On

The world is “losing its mind about butter,” Bloomberg analysts exclaim.

~Addison

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.