If only briefly, a government shutdown would do what the Department of Government Efficiency could only do on paper.
DOGE was meant to give Washington a much-needed tech upgrade… but it got swallowed up by the swamp itself.
A shutdown, on the other hand, could shine a light on the real problem: a federal fiscal structure modeled on the 20th-century welfare state, but worse. We say, ‘could’ knowing full well, it won’t.
Demographics are only part of the problem. Entitlements have locked in spending patterns across all of the Western social democratic states. Nobody wants to admit that we can’t pay for any of the promises made in the past.
But here in the U.S., we have a special brand of political denial.
Politicians and bureaucrats alike still somehow maintain the political clout to treat the public treasury as a financial scheme to support their personal ambitions and their family legacies.
But don’t worry. We’re not a socialist country. Heh.
Small wonder, then, that gold is replacing Treasurys at the center of the global financial system. (More on that from James West below.)
The White House has ordered agencies to prepare for furloughs and consider permanent firings if the government closes on September 30. “Which services are truly essential?” the memo asks.
Heh. Heh.
Them’s fightin’ words.
Democrats see Republicans about to “publicly own” a shutdown, in Hakeem Jeffries’ words. “Yeah, right,” replies Mike Johnson. Carlos Gimenez of Florida admitted, “There has to be some give and take.”
Courts could run dry of funds next week.
Bets on the public trading market Polymarket that the government will shut down
surged to nearly 80% this morning. (source: Polymarket)
At least betting on the odds gives us something to do while Washington fiddles away under the bonfire of their own vanities.
Trump at the UN: Fire and Nonsense
Trump’s UN speech was fire and theater. He mocked climate change as a “con job,” told Europe its countries were “going to hell,” and then flipped to say Ukraine can now win the war.
“There was a lot to agree with in Donald Trump’s speech to the UN. And a lot of nonsense too,” Bill Bonner wrote. “It is probably true, for example, that the great climate crisis is mostly claptrap. Scientists do not know the full story of the Earth’s climate changes. Even if they are right about the part they think they know, there is surely more they don’t know.
“Mr. Trump thinks Europe is ‘going to hell’ because of its energy and immigration policies? Maybe. But there’s a lot of room in Hell…and a lot of ways to get there. Too bad the American president doesn’t seem to notice where he is going. While Europe wastes billions on dumb energy policies, the U.S. wastes trillions on dumb wars.”
Thin applause. Thicker mistrust.
Milei’s Lifeline
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is preparing a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank, plus standby credit, plus purchases of Argentine bonds “as conditions warrant.”
Milei needs it. Inflation is down, but reserves are vanishing. Next year’s $9.5 billion in debt payments loom. The greatest political experiment of our time needs a bailout.
Milei’s Argentina is a forecast for what’s to come. (See: Turning Argentine, in the 3rd post-pandemic edition of Empire of Debt.)
Markets Lose Nerve
Stocks fell for a second day as Powell’s cautious talk soured expectations of more cuts. Amazon led the Magnificent Seven lower. Futures slid again this morning. Beneath the surface, the air is heavy with doubt.
Lithium Americas continued to surge (up another 18% today after nearly doubling yesterday) on reports that the U.S. wants a 5–10% stake in its Thacker Pass mine. Warrants, state capitalism, equity for loans.
Tether, meanwhile, chases a $500 billion valuation.
Bloomberg’s Lionel Laurent called it “a remarkable victory lap” that might just be the “last waltz” of the crypto boom. Ether slipped below $4,000, part of a $140 billion rout this week.
We’re expecting some knock-on impact in the stablecoin ecosystem of the Vietnamese government’s decisions to purge 86 million bank accounts that have not met new mandatory biometric verification requirements, new regulations aimed to prevent fraud and cybercrime by linking bank accounts to facial recognition and identity verification.
OpenAI’s Giant Scissors
The Harvard Business Review warns of “workslop.” Mandated AI tools produce bad slides and reports. Workers say 15% of what hits their desks is slop. For a company of 10,000, that’s $9 million a year in lost productivity.
Progress, or just noise?
You may recall similar confusion over actual productivity in the early days of the Internet.
Meanwhile, Stargate — OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank’s joint venture — announced $400 billion for five new data centers. The Wall Street Journal says total costs could run to $1 trillion.
Sam Altman defends the pace: “We are growing faster than any business I’ve ever heard of before.” But speed can conceal fragility. Too much steel, too many wires, too little return.
Personally, we love AI as a research tool. But wonder how much of it the world really needs.
Trade and Tensions
Trump’s tariff and trade team is probing imports of robotics, machinery, and medical devices. Apple is asking the EU to drop consumer rules. Starbucks is closing 900 stores. Best Buy is cutting the Geek Squad. South Korea’s $350 billion U.S. investment plan is frozen until visas clear.
Erdogan arrives at the White House. Boeing and Lockheed hope for contracts. NATO frets over Russian incursions. Germany counsels restraint. Trump wants more muscle. Turkey sent an AWACS plane to Lithuania. Gestures in place of solutions.
Housing’s False Dawn
New home sales spiked 20% in August, the strongest since 2022. Incentives and price cuts worked.
Or maybe it’s a data quirk. “Always important to remember the margin of error,” the NAHB’s economist told CNBC. We’ll see more when Realtors release existing home data today.
What Lies Beneath
James West from his excellent Midas Letter: “The rise in gold price and its usurpation of Treasuries’ role in sovereign portfolios is a sign that there is indeed justice in the universe.
“For more than half a century, U.S. Treasuries held mythic status in global finance. They were the bedrock of sovereign reserves, the ballast of pension funds, and the unquestioned refuge for capital in times of geopolitical uncertainty. The premise was simple: the full faith and credit of the United States government was, in practice, unimpeachable.
“But that era is drawing to a close. A slow, grinding, but unmistakable rotation is underway—away from Treasurys, and toward gold.”
~Addison
P.S.: Grey Swan Live! today at 2 p.m. ET with Shad Marquitz on commodities. Gold above $3,700, silver above $43, copper near highs, uranium breaking out. The rotation into commodities is live, in real time.
In a discussion with researchers yesterday, we got this Slack note:
“Commodity trades are paying off…
UUUU +329%
NOPMF + 110%
XME +59%
CSCCF +45%
HBM +39%
SIL +39%
SPPP +37%
SRUUF +35%
That, despite a sharp sell-off in FCX because of a copper mine shutdown at a Freeport-McMoRan site. You’ll get all the nitty details from Andrew and Shad today.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.
