GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Beneath the Surface

Send In the Clowns

Loading ...Bill Bonner

December 18, 2024 • 4 minute, 27 second read


CongressdebtDOGE

Send In the Clowns

Wednesday, December 18th, 2024

Bill Bonner, writing today from Baltimore, Maryland

Another day.

Another dope trying to make sure the DOGE is neutered.

Fox News:

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said federal employees will help with Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts by sharing their ideas for changes within the government. “We are reaching out to federal employees. They see it firsthand. Many of these employees are frustrated, as well. They are taxpayers, as well. They want to see it be more efficient. We are asking them to also share their ideas with us so we can actually get this thing fixed,” Lankford said on Fox News.

The DOGE has its work cut out for it. It aims to cut $2 trillion in spending. Every dollar goes to someone, so that represents as many as 20 million $100,000 paychecks. Musk and Ramaswamy are going to need all the help they can get.

But really? Get the feds to prune off the branches where they rest their own plump derrieres? How likely is that?

If they were seriously interested in cutting costs, senators could simply vote against unfunded, reckless appropriations bills. There’s one in front of them right now. The Western Journal:

History appears to be repeating itself this week as Congress has brokered an agreement on a massive year-end catch-all spending bill — something it has often done in recent years just before leaving Washington for Christmas break.

But these clowns rubber stamp every jackass piece of legislation that comes down the pike; that’s why we have a $36 trillion national debt. Now they bow their heads and cross their fingers, claiming to be dead set on ‘efficiency.’

Donald Trump reportedly said he wanted the ‘kind of generals that Hitler had.’ We presume he was impressed by their ability to get things done.

Maybe he was thinking of the way they put down the Warsaw uprising… maybe not the Battle for Stalingrad or WWII itself.

Whatever was going through his head, Mr. Trump is in a better position than anyone to batten down the hatches and tighten up the ship. But he’s way off course. Here’s Barrons:

Donald Trump’s tax-and-tariff economic policies and the U.S.’s mounting deficit could drive yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes to their highest level since 2000, T. Rowe Price has warned. The investment manager’s CIO for fixed income Arif Husain said in a report that the yield could top 5% early next year, then rise even higher.

In other words, Cap’n Trump is set to increase deficits, not shave them. A shame, because all he would have to do is what Javier Milei did, tell his generals, lieutenants, and housekeepers that that he will not tolerate any more debt.

But even at the top, lawmakers are going with the DODGE… the Department of Deceiving the public about Government Efficiency. Its fantasy goal is to make sure the brightwork is polished… the chow is hot… and the uniforms are pressed.

Just don’t turn the ship around!

Keeping the lounge tidy didn’t keep the Titanic from sinking. Nevertheless, tidiness is the new objective… and it is so important that even the Democrats are coming up the gangplank. Fox continues:

Some Democrats have jumped on board, as well: Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) have said they will join the DOGE Caucus.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) took aim at the U.S. defense budget for potential cuts doled out by DOGE in an op-ed published last week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) earlier this month said Musk was “right” about defense spending, because the Pentagon has “lost track of billions.” 

Hey, anybody can lose a few bucks here and there. But it takes talent and skill to misplace billions. That’s the kind of expertise we need on the DODGE team, right? Here’s the latest from Duffel Blog (believed to be tongue-in-cheek):

New Department of Gov. Efficiency seeks majors and staff NCOs as military liaisons

The new agency is seeking military-grade efficiency.

According to sources in the White House who spoke on the condition of possible future book deals, Musk and Ramaswamy are seeking highly capable military personnel to support the new agency’s mission and bring military-grade efficiency to the often slow and bogged-down federal government. 

[Theo] Redding, a Virginia-based defense contractor, was one of the early hires for the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He hit the ground running by publishing a 732-slide PowerPoint presentation outlining critical elements of new efficiency methodologies.

The next steps are obvious. Convene a series of meetings with other agencies involved with the efficiency drive. Dig into the details. Study the ‘ideas’ put forward by the feds themselves. Put out the call for bids to develop a new, AI-enhanced multi-million-dollar cost-buster program. Compare the bids… perhaps putting a few procurement specialists on the case to help analyze them. Then, await the report.

After all the obvious inputs, through-puts, and put options have been put into it, the AI report can be put to the DODGE and to a special committee of Congress… which can then draw its own conclusions, make its own recommendations, and put it in the trash.

This whole process will, of course, take time. When it is complete… that is to say, after Hell freezes over… the budget cutting can begin.

Regards,

Bill Bonner


Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

November 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!
The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches
Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market. 

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present. 

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip