GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2026 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Beneath the Surface

Send In the Clowns

Loading ...Bill Bonner

December 18, 2024 • 4 minute, 27 second read


CongressdebtDOGE

Send In the Clowns

Wednesday, December 18th, 2024

Bill Bonner, writing today from Baltimore, Maryland

Another day.

Another dope trying to make sure the DOGE is neutered.

Fox News:

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said federal employees will help with Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts by sharing their ideas for changes within the government. “We are reaching out to federal employees. They see it firsthand. Many of these employees are frustrated, as well. They are taxpayers, as well. They want to see it be more efficient. We are asking them to also share their ideas with us so we can actually get this thing fixed,” Lankford said on Fox News.

The DOGE has its work cut out for it. It aims to cut $2 trillion in spending. Every dollar goes to someone, so that represents as many as 20 million $100,000 paychecks. Musk and Ramaswamy are going to need all the help they can get.

But really? Get the feds to prune off the branches where they rest their own plump derrieres? How likely is that?

If they were seriously interested in cutting costs, senators could simply vote against unfunded, reckless appropriations bills. There’s one in front of them right now. The Western Journal:

History appears to be repeating itself this week as Congress has brokered an agreement on a massive year-end catch-all spending bill — something it has often done in recent years just before leaving Washington for Christmas break.

But these clowns rubber stamp every jackass piece of legislation that comes down the pike; that’s why we have a $36 trillion national debt. Now they bow their heads and cross their fingers, claiming to be dead set on ‘efficiency.’

Donald Trump reportedly said he wanted the ‘kind of generals that Hitler had.’ We presume he was impressed by their ability to get things done.

Maybe he was thinking of the way they put down the Warsaw uprising… maybe not the Battle for Stalingrad or WWII itself.

Whatever was going through his head, Mr. Trump is in a better position than anyone to batten down the hatches and tighten up the ship. But he’s way off course. Here’s Barrons:

Donald Trump’s tax-and-tariff economic policies and the U.S.’s mounting deficit could drive yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes to their highest level since 2000, T. Rowe Price has warned. The investment manager’s CIO for fixed income Arif Husain said in a report that the yield could top 5% early next year, then rise even higher.

In other words, Cap’n Trump is set to increase deficits, not shave them. A shame, because all he would have to do is what Javier Milei did, tell his generals, lieutenants, and housekeepers that that he will not tolerate any more debt.

But even at the top, lawmakers are going with the DODGE… the Department of Deceiving the public about Government Efficiency. Its fantasy goal is to make sure the brightwork is polished… the chow is hot… and the uniforms are pressed.

Just don’t turn the ship around!

Keeping the lounge tidy didn’t keep the Titanic from sinking. Nevertheless, tidiness is the new objective… and it is so important that even the Democrats are coming up the gangplank. Fox continues:

Some Democrats have jumped on board, as well: Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) have said they will join the DOGE Caucus.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) took aim at the U.S. defense budget for potential cuts doled out by DOGE in an op-ed published last week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) earlier this month said Musk was “right” about defense spending, because the Pentagon has “lost track of billions.” 

Hey, anybody can lose a few bucks here and there. But it takes talent and skill to misplace billions. That’s the kind of expertise we need on the DODGE team, right? Here’s the latest from Duffel Blog (believed to be tongue-in-cheek):

New Department of Gov. Efficiency seeks majors and staff NCOs as military liaisons

The new agency is seeking military-grade efficiency.

According to sources in the White House who spoke on the condition of possible future book deals, Musk and Ramaswamy are seeking highly capable military personnel to support the new agency’s mission and bring military-grade efficiency to the often slow and bogged-down federal government. 

[Theo] Redding, a Virginia-based defense contractor, was one of the early hires for the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He hit the ground running by publishing a 732-slide PowerPoint presentation outlining critical elements of new efficiency methodologies.

The next steps are obvious. Convene a series of meetings with other agencies involved with the efficiency drive. Dig into the details. Study the ‘ideas’ put forward by the feds themselves. Put out the call for bids to develop a new, AI-enhanced multi-million-dollar cost-buster program. Compare the bids… perhaps putting a few procurement specialists on the case to help analyze them. Then, await the report.

After all the obvious inputs, through-puts, and put options have been put into it, the AI report can be put to the DODGE and to a special committee of Congress… which can then draw its own conclusions, make its own recommendations, and put it in the trash.

This whole process will, of course, take time. When it is complete… that is to say, after Hell freezes over… the budget cutting can begin.

Regards,

Bill Bonner


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You