“Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.”
–William Jennings Bryan
August 22, 2025 — In 1770, one of my ancestors did the unthinkable…
At the time, American colonists were struggling with their home country, Great Britain. The issue? The colonists thought they were British subjects — and as such, subject to the same rights as those living in England.
That included the right to political representation, even at a time when Britain’s monarchy was a much stronger institution.
In 1770, an unruly mob attacked British soldiers guarding the Customs House in Boston. The mob threw ice, glass, and even oyster shells. Fearing for their safety, the soldiers fired into the crowd.
By the time it was over, five members of the mob had died. The 8 British soldiers and their commander were held for trial.
Few wanted to defend the British soldiers in the colony. My ancestor, John Adams, stood up.
Why? Out of principles. Every man accused of a crime has a right to a competent defense. The later signer of the Declaration of Independence, future ambassador to Great Britain, America’s first Vice President and second President, was a man of principles.
That’s just one example of the character of the people who invented America.
New Yorker John Jay became the country’s first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, following his work as one of the principal writers of The Federalist Papers and shaping the Constitution alongside James Madison.
George Washington could have been a king, but stepped down after two terms as President — focusing instead on his vast real estate holdings.
But as the saying goes: Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.
Today feels like poor times. But there’s a brighter future ahead.
Dabbling In the Family Business
Last weekend, my wife and I opened our home to Victoria Doyle, who is running as a Democrat in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District.
Like most congressional districts, it’s not competitive in the general election. If Doyle can win the primary, and if Florida doesn’t pull any redistricting moves by next November, she’ll likely be a new member of Congress.
Victoria Doyle addresses voters at Casa de Packer.
(Source: Doyleforcongress.org)
I’ve criticized the incumbent member of Congress before. I won’t name names, just point out that she’s failed at the most basic duty of a member of Congress — to represent the district as a whole.
She’s done a great job representing the mainstream Democrats who call Palm Beach – the island that’s home to dozens of billionaires – their home.
For those in West Palm Beach, where there’s significantly more income inequality, however, it’s been another story.
Like the incumbent names I have dropped, she’s also got her own history with unusual stock trades.
In contrast, Doyle supports keeping money out of politics — both from the fundraising side and from Congressional stock trading.
With a year to go until the primary, Doyle is making herself available to the people of this district.
Our incumbent has largely been hosting virtual town halls, where staffers filter through questions for the softballs.
As Homer Simpson once quipped, “That’s not America. That’s not even Mexico.”
The absolute bare minimum for a member of Congress is to be a voice for the people of their district.
As a Democrat or Republican, they have certain issues that may feel more important and worthy of time and legislation — but constituents need to be heard too, not just brushed off.
America works best when policies focus on creating a thriving and growing middle class, not supporting an oligarchic donor class.
Fixing a Broken Congress
There are many structural problems in America. The leading one — the one that led to Addison’s creation of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity — is America’s soaring debt and debt-to-GDP.
There’s been an imbalance of spending for decades. For Washington, no matter which party is in power, it’s become business as usual.
And as America’s finances smolder and risk breaking into an inferno, what has the government done about it?
Mostly, they’ve been giving the embers some air.
For the average member of Congress, you’re just a voice in a chorus – a group of 435. And most of the time, you’re in a group roughly half that size.
That’s why Congress can have an overall approval rating somewhere around 13%, but your specific member of Congress can continue to get elected time and again.
Meanwhile, little is actually getting done at the legislative level – Congress has increasingly given agencies rule-making authority despite the Constitution’s provision giving sole legislative power to the House and Senate.
The end result? Congress has become a combination rest home and hedge fund.
Members of Congress are increasingly older, with 20% eligible to collect full Social Security benefits.
(Source: New York Times)
It’s easy to point out Congressional deadlock as an institution. And it’s easy to point out the massive piles of cash being made by Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the House, or current trades by the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.
It’s easy to bemoan the fact that someone earning $180,000 per year and a plethora of perks — including a full pension after just 4 years on the job — can somehow be worth tens of millions after just a few short years.
And it’s easy to point out that as Congress gets older and wealthier, the average American seems to be on a financial treadmill where they have to work harder and harder to stay in place.
Change, effective change at least, is a much harder vision. But it’s one that can happen if you help it along.
Moving Past the Fourth Turning
Believe it or not, the low trust in American institutions today isn’t anything new.
In fact, it’s part of a cycle that occurs throughout four phases. Each phase lasts about 20 years, each cycle lasts about 80.
Through these cycles, you can see the path of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the Great Depression into World War II, and today.
The book The Fourth Turning shows how different generations have different roles to play throughout this cycle.
With trust at a low, change may seem impossible. You may feel demoralized. But it’s also a case of things being darkest before the dawn.
For all the challenges facing America today, there’s nothing new under the sun.
Our debt-to-GDP ratio is now as high as it was at the end of World War II. We grew our way out of that problem and created a thriving middle class while doing so.
We can overcome that challenge again.
In life, the universe seems to find a way. It’s one thing to simply criticize the status quo. It’s another thing — and a significant task — to change it.
I won’t lie, for years, my wife and I have talked about the challenges in running this country, and the lack of responsibility from members of Congress.
Neither of us want to run, despite the perks. Winning the first race is usually the uphill part of the battle — unless you want to be a change agent.
Victoria Doyle is such a change agent, and as I noted following that meeting, she struck me as someone who could get where she wants in politics.
The last time I noted that was when my college town hosted a debate for two Senate candidates — and a plucky young Barack Obama felt like a breath of fresh air.
Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
P.S. What a busy week for Grey Swan!
Our Grey Swan Trading Fraternity took profits on an options trade betting that high-flying Palantir Technologies (PLTR) would decline.
Our latest research into technology and cryptocurrencies, a development we call The Quickening, just came out — and features the astute Mark Jeftovic.
And our Grey Swan Live! with Matt Clark provided a deeper dive into the troubling data that policymakers have to rely on today — not to mention the importance of building resilient investment systems.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
