Regulatory Monstrosity

~~ Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

The federal government is out of control.

If you’ve been with us for a while, that’s not exactly news to you. But if you ever needed a visual to show someone who doesn’t get it, here’s one. Take a look at this week’s chart below—it shows the relentless growth of federal regulations over the past 70+ years.

This monstrosity has ballooned from under 10,000 pages in 1950 to a staggering 190,260 pages by 2023. That’s thousands upon thousands of pages of rules, dictates, and mandates, crafted by unelected bureaucrats, cramming their tentacles into every nook and cranny of American life and business.

And the costs are staggering. According to a report by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, federal regulations cost the U.S. economy $2.1 trillion per year. That’s an invisible tax of about $15,000 per household. And guess who shoulders this burden? That’s right—the American consumer, worker, and entrepreneur.

Now, if you remember, $2 trillion also happens to be the amount needed to balance the budget today—and it’s the same figure Musk himself claimed he could cut from federal spending through his DOGE initiative (the Department of Government Efficiency).

Of course, as I mentioned in a piece last month, DOGE isn’t an actual government department. It’s just a Federal Advisory Committee with no real power to act directly (except to provide recommendations and advice to the President and federal agencies).

So, as much as I’d love to see a smaller government, a reduced deficit, and a less expensive foreign policy (all desperately needed given the state of U.S. finances), I’m not holding my breath for DOGE to deliver these changes.

Still, whether it succeeds or not, the goal is undeniably noble.

Because this regulatory explosion you see above isn’t just about the economic toll. It’s about lost freedoms, crushed innovation, and the constant distortions it forces on the market. Every new page added to this monster is another blow to liberty, another barrier for hard-working Americans, and another chain on the invisible hand.

Have a great rest of the weekend!

Lau Vegys

~~ Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

The federal government is out of control.

Still, whether it succeeds or not, the goal is undeniably noble.

Have a great rest of the weekend!

Lau Vegys

Today, the top 10% of earners account for half of all U.S. consumer spending. Rate cuts that boost stock prices inflate the purchasing power of the wealthy while widening the gulf for everyone else.

How does fattening the brokerage accounts of the top decile fix affordability?

It doesn’t.

But the Fed must cut because the bottom half of America is already showing signs of breaking. If the Fed doesn’t relieve debt pressure, the consumer cracks. If it does relieve it, inflation cracks upward instead.

Oracle shares managed to pop higher on their AI investment plans over the summer – but quickly gave back those gains as investors digested the total debt the company was taking on.

The AI buildout and its rising costs are raising more questions than answers right now. The CDS market is heating up as a sign of trouble ahead. Keep your eyes peeled!

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.