Pelosi v. The Inverse Cramer: Know Who To Avoid

Looking for an edge in the stock market? One way investors have found great returns is to follow in the footsteps of great investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

In today’s more jaded society, the focus has shifted from great investors to those with better knowledge. It’s no surprise that former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has been a great source of trading ideas for investors, even after belated disclosures.

Another strategy? Find someone with a poor track record, such as CNBC’s Jim Cramer, and do the opposite of what he suggests. There’s one fund that does just that.

Here’s how those strategies stacked up last year:

Turn Your Images On

Knowing who to follow and who to avoid is critical in a bull market devoid of reasonable valuations

Bear in mind – the inverse Cramer trade fared well shorting many stocks at a time when the overall stock market kept grinding higher.

But ultimately, markets are biased to trend higher over time, making the follow-Pelosi approach the winner.

As we enter the second half of a volatile year, we’ll continue to monitor Pelosi’s trades — as will our friend and colleague Andrew Zatlin, who follows all congressional trades. You may be interested in learning more about his strategy here.

~ Addison

Your Old Social Security Number
May Soon Be Worthless

Instead, it could soon be replaced by something called a DIV Code:

1KyeBoM2XveqjGUQEcK3qgaxbn1bDFZwU

Never heard of it?

Watch the video that explains everything

P.S.: This Thursday, at 11 a.m. on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the prominent trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy. Paid readers will definitely want to attend.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Looking for an edge in the stock market? One way investors have found great returns is to follow in the footsteps of great investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

Another strategy? Find someone with a poor track record, such as CNBC’s Jim Cramer, and do the opposite of what he suggests. There’s one fund that does just that.

Here’s how those strategies stacked up last year:

Turn Your Images On

Knowing who to follow and who to avoid is critical in a bull market devoid of reasonable valuations

Bear in mind – the inverse Cramer trade fared well shorting many stocks at a time when the overall stock market kept grinding higher.

But ultimately, markets are biased to trend higher over time, making the follow-Pelosi approach the winner.

~ Addison

Your Old Social Security Number
May Soon Be Worthless

Instead, it could soon be replaced by something called a DIV Code:

1KyeBoM2XveqjGUQEcK3qgaxbn1bDFZwU

Never heard of it?

Watch the video that explains everything

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Over the next twelve months, roughly $9 trillion worth of existing US debt securities will mature; this was money that the government borrowed years ago… and will soon come due.

In theory the government has to pay that money back. Naturally they don’t have the funds to do so… so instead they’ll borrow new money to pay back the old loans… essentially refinancing $9 trillion worth of the national debt over the next twelve months.

So realistically they must sell ~$11 trillion in debt over the next twelve months: $9 trillion to refinance existing debt, plus another $2 trillion to cover this year’s budget deficit.

$11 trillion is an enormous amount of money… which means they’ll need every investor possible ready and willing to buy US government bonds.

And that’s a problem. Because right now, foreigners (which own a HUGE chunk of the debt) are aggressively backing away from US government bonds.

We start today with a paradox. The U.S. stock market has never been larger — $63.8 trillion, by Goldman’s count. That’s double what it was just five years ago.

To put it in context: it took eight years, from 2012 to 2020, to double the last time. Now we’ve done it in five, with the S&P 500 clocking in another record just yesterday.

AI is flashy. Wrapped Bitcoin is foundational.

It’s not a product story, it’s a protocol shift.

And this “worthless paper” is setting itself up for a quadrillion-dollar remaking of the global financial system.

Unlike AI, this transformation doesn’t need a breakthrough.

It just needs time.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Over the next twelve months, roughly $9 trillion worth of existing US debt securities will mature; this was money that the government borrowed years ago… and will soon come due.

So realistically they must sell ~$11 trillion in debt over the next twelve months: $9 trillion to refinance existing debt, plus another $2 trillion to cover this year’s budget deficit.

$11 trillion is an enormous amount of money… which means they’ll need every investor possible ready and willing to buy US government bonds.

And that’s a problem. Because right now, foreigners (which own a HUGE chunk of the debt) are aggressively backing away from US government bonds.

We start today with a paradox. The U.S. stock market has never been larger — $63.8 trillion, by Goldman’s count. That’s double what it was just five years ago.

To put it in context: it took eight years, from 2012 to 2020, to double the last time. Now we’ve done it in five, with the S&P 500 clocking in another record just yesterday.

AI is flashy. Wrapped Bitcoin is foundational.

It’s not a product story, it’s a protocol shift.

And this “worthless paper” is setting itself up for a quadrillion-dollar remaking of the global financial system.

Unlike AI, this transformation doesn’t need a breakthrough.

It just needs time.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Pelosi v. The Inverse Cramer: Know Who To Avoid

Your Old Social Security Number May Soon Be Worthless

Pelosi v. The Inverse Cramer: Know Who To Avoid

Your Old Social Security Number May Soon Be Worthless

Your Old Social Security Number
May Soon Be Worthless

Your Old Social Security Number
May Soon Be Worthless