Ripple Effect

Pelosi v. The Inverse Cramer: Know Who To Avoid

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 1, 20251 minute, 42 second read



Pelosi v. The Inverse Cramer: Know Who To Avoid

Looking for an edge in the stock market? One way investors have found great returns is to follow in the footsteps of great investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

In today’s more jaded society, the focus has shifted from great investors to those with better knowledge. It’s no surprise that former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has been a great source of trading ideas for investors, even after belated disclosures.

Another strategy? Find someone with a poor track record, such as CNBC’s Jim Cramer, and do the opposite of what he suggests. There’s one fund that does just that.

Here’s how those strategies stacked up last year:

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Knowing who to follow and who to avoid is critical in a bull market devoid of reasonable valuations

Bear in mind – the inverse Cramer trade fared well shorting many stocks at a time when the overall stock market kept grinding higher.

But ultimately, markets are biased to trend higher over time, making the follow-Pelosi approach the winner.

As we enter the second half of a volatile year, we’ll continue to monitor Pelosi’s trades — as will our friend and colleague Andrew Zatlin, who follows all congressional trades. You may be interested in learning more about his strategy here.

~ Addison

P.S.: This Thursday, at 11 a.m. on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the prominent trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy. Paid readers will definitely want to attend.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


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It’s important to remember that news flow is not the true driver of lasting, market-beating stock returns.

At the end of the day, fundamental and technical factors drive returns. They always have.

That’s why they’re the sole informant of my Green Zone Power Rating system…

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The Fed’s rate cut was a carrot. Trump’s challenge to Lisa Cook is a cudgel. Nvidia’s Intel bet is both. And Kimmel’s suspension? A warning that liberty itself can be chipped away by government jawboning.

For the investor who values freedom as much as returns, the lesson is simple: stability rests not on coercion but on trust that the do-gooders will leave the market alone. Break that trust, and the market’s incentives fail.

At the very least, Trump’s fast and furious attempts at realigning the U.S. on all fronts — political, judicial, financial — make for entertaining reading.

The better angels tell us to ignore politics altogether. Unfortunately, for our money’s sake, we do so at our peril.

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The terrifying bull market broadened its base yesterday, driven by expectations of easy money.

Small caps tend to be more dependent on borrowing to finance operations than the cash-rich mega-cap players.

So it’s no surprise that as the Fed acquiesced to cutting interest rates Wednesday, small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) broke out of a four-year range.

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Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

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