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Ripple Effect

Real Estate Rolls Over

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 18 second read


Housing

Real Estate Rolls Over

The housing market has been effectively frozen for three years.

That’s because, following record-low interest rates, homeowners refinanced with mortgages under 3%. Today, standing over 6%, the same home would have more than double the amount of interest each month.

Unsurprisingly, then, home prices have started to weaken as rates have remained high:

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Home prices are falling in most metros amid high rates (Source: Barchart)

With the Federal Reserve shifting towards a more accommodating stance – even with sticky inflation – this downtrend in home markets may not last.

If you already own your home, it’s no big deal either way.

But lower rates could make it easier for buyers to start bidding up properties again when home prices are already at record prices relative to wages.

Think of it as the real estate echo of the terrifying bull market in stocks  that rate cuts are likely to kick off.

~ Addison

P.S.: Most assets such as homes should see their prices rise as interest rates come down. We still see upside for stocks, gold, bitcoin – you name it. Not for healthy reasons, but because of the persistent decline in dollar purchasing power.

Grey Swan Live! this week: Mark Jeftovic joins us for “Shadow Fed & the American Dream” — how a September rate cut could hit the dollar’s purchasing power, where the money-market flood might go next, and why “control of money” is migrating from central banks to code, corporates, and courts.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A 50-year mortgage doesn’t make housing cheaper. But by stretching the repayment period over time, it DOES lower the monthly payment on your principal. That lowers the percentage of your total income you’re spending on repayment. And in a strange way, it makes sense.

With a fixed rate mortgage and inflation running in the high upper digits, the real value you of your total debt goes down over time (inflation pays off your loan, as long as your income rises faster in nominal terms). Of course you pay off a lot more interest over 50 years than 30 years. And it takes a lot longer to build up equity (assuming also that house prices don’t fall).

Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I
An Armistice of Convenience

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Last night’s 60–40 Senate vote shoved the government back toward “on.” There’s apparently a shutdown truce… for now.

A bloc of Democrats “crossed the aisle” after weeks of getting nowhere on health-care demands. “We had no path forward… and SNAP beneficiaries were losing benefits,” Sen. Tim Kaine, one of the 7 who conveniently aren’t up for reelection, said.

The new deal funds Washington only through January, tacks on three bills to keep parts of Defense, Ag, and the Capitol complex humming through 2026, reverses shutdown-era RIFs, and restores back pay.

The House is next; the president says he’ll sign it fast when it gets to the Oval Office.

An Armistice of Convenience
The Quality Stocks Index Is A Screaming Buy… For The Long Haul

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 Quality Index ranks companies not by market cap or a compelling AI story, but rather by fundamentals. Earnings, profit margins, and financial leverage. Reasonable debt.

You know, the kind of stuff that makes your eyes glaze over. And the type of companies we like to hold for the long haul in our model portfolio.

The Quality Stocks Index Is A Screaming Buy… For The Long Haul
Barry Brownstein: Economics of Gratitude: What New Yorkers Forgot About Prosperity

November 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If I were to sum up the mindset of New Yorkers who elected Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City, it would be We want something for nothing, and we want the rich to pay for it. Instead, they will get nothing for something, and they will pay for it with a degraded quality of life.

Mamdani’s victory was paved with ingratitude for the blessings New Yorkers receive daily. The mindset demanding “something for nothing” from society is not just a political phenomenon, but a profound lapse in economic understanding and moral character.

Barry Brownstein: Economics of Gratitude: What New Yorkers Forgot About Prosperity