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Ripple Effect

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 30, 2025 • 1 minute, 15 second read


Fed

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Yesterday’s Fed meeting offered something for everyone.

For bullish investors, the quarter-point rate cut provided a clear signal. And the Fed is just about done with its quantitative tightening.

But for the bears, Powell doused expectations that a December rate cut was 100% on the table.

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The odds of a rate cut declined substantially after Powell’s speech, but is still the odds-on favorite. (Source: Polymarket)

For now, we expect a rate cut, more market liquidity, and strong conditions for what we’ve been calling a “terrifying bull market,” – driven not by fundamentals, but by fear of missing out.

~ Addison

P.S. Today on Grey Swan Live! we’ll explore the rise of Trump’s economic nationalism and what it means for U.S. military readiness in the years ahead. Joining us is John Robb — our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of Trump’s tariff strategy, the global networked intifada, and the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

With markets rallying on optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal, he’ll pinpoint the next global flashpoints — and the investment opportunities emerging as technology transforms the defense industry.

Join us live Thursday, October 30, at 2 p.m. ET — sign up here if you haven’t become a Fraternity member yet.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

Socialism Whacked
This One Goes To Twelve

October 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Donald Trump wrapped his Asia trip with what he called an “amazing” meeting with Xi Jinping at a military base in Busan, South Korea. The two men smiled for cameras, shook hands, and carved out a fragile truce in the ongoing trade war.

On Air Force One, Trump tried to outdo the 80s cult classic mockumentary Spinal Tap, suggesting on the scale of one to the talks were a “12.”

On a practical level, Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl production would be halved — from 20% to 10% — bringing the overall rate to 47% from 57%.

China, in turn, agreed to a one-year suspension of some rare-earth export controls, though it kept licensing restrictions on seven key minerals used in U.S. manufacturing.

This One Goes To Twelve
Autonomous Weapons

October 29, 2025 • John Robb

In the past, weapon systems took decades to build and changed slowly. Autonomy changes this. For example, new capabilities developed by field tests or simulation (testing scenarios in full physics simulators depicting actual environments) could be downloaded to existing weapon systems, making it possible to upgrade a weapon system significantly without any meaningful hardware changes. A process of improvement that used to take many years would shrink to weeks and, in time, days.

Autonomous Weapons
The Great Repricing of Power

October 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Markets heard what they wanted. NVIDIA’s stock surged premarket on news that Trump would discuss the company’s Blackwell AI chip with Xi, pushing it to an unprecedented $5 trillion valuation.

Meanwhile, China quietly bought its first cargoes of U.S. soybeans this season — a symbolic gesture that reminded traders that diplomacy still runs on trade.

“It’s not détente,” wrote  Bloomberg’s Jennifer Welch this morning, “It is a dealmaking with a timer.” Wall Street is ambivalent on peace, but they do like profits.

In the background, China’s biotech sector continues its ethically murky sprint forward — this week, reports surfaced of Chinese scientists creating monkeys engineered to exhibit schizophrenia and autism.

The Great Repricing of Power