GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 30, 2025 • 1 minute, 15 second read


Fed

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Yesterday’s Fed meeting offered something for everyone.

For bullish investors, the quarter-point rate cut provided a clear signal. And the Fed is just about done with its quantitative tightening.

But for the bears, Powell doused expectations that a December rate cut was 100% on the table.

Turn Your Images On

The odds of a rate cut declined substantially after Powell’s speech, but is still the odds-on favorite. (Source: Polymarket)

For now, we expect a rate cut, more market liquidity, and strong conditions for what we’ve been calling a “terrifying bull market,” – driven not by fundamentals, but by fear of missing out.

~ Addison

P.S. Today on Grey Swan Live! we’ll explore the rise of Trump’s economic nationalism and what it means for U.S. military readiness in the years ahead. Joining us is John Robb — our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of Trump’s tariff strategy, the global networked intifada, and the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

With markets rallying on optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal, he’ll pinpoint the next global flashpoints — and the investment opportunities emerging as technology transforms the defense industry.

Join us live Thursday, October 30, at 2 p.m. ET — sign up here if you haven’t become a Fraternity member yet.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!