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Ripple Effect

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 30, 2025 • 1 minute, 15 second read


Fed

Powell Cools Talk of December Rate Cut

Yesterday’s Fed meeting offered something for everyone.

For bullish investors, the quarter-point rate cut provided a clear signal. And the Fed is just about done with its quantitative tightening.

But for the bears, Powell doused expectations that a December rate cut was 100% on the table.

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The odds of a rate cut declined substantially after Powell’s speech, but is still the odds-on favorite. (Source: Polymarket)

For now, we expect a rate cut, more market liquidity, and strong conditions for what we’ve been calling a “terrifying bull market,” – driven not by fundamentals, but by fear of missing out.

~ Addison

P.S. Today on Grey Swan Live! we’ll explore the rise of Trump’s economic nationalism and what it means for U.S. military readiness in the years ahead. Joining us is John Robb — our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of Trump’s tariff strategy, the global networked intifada, and the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

With markets rallying on optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal, he’ll pinpoint the next global flashpoints — and the investment opportunities emerging as technology transforms the defense industry.

Join us live Thursday, October 30, at 2 p.m. ET — sign up here if you haven’t become a Fraternity member yet.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You