H.L. Mencken once quipped that “every election is an advance auction of stolen goods.”
He might have added that every modern policy debate is a dress rehearsal for that auction — a production of “Affordability Theater” in which the actors are overpaid, the script is incoherent, and the audience keeps buying tickets out of habit.
Today’s Washington isn’t governed so much as stage-managed.
Politicians don’t solve problems; they perform them.
The current fixation is affordability — a word that will be repeated ad nauseam from now through the 2026 midterms, until it becomes as meaningless as “bipartisan.”
The script hasn’t changed in decades: promise relief, pass a law that raises costs, blame capitalism, hold hearings, fundraise, repeat.
Act I: The “Affordable” Care Act — A Study in Irony
During the original Obamacare debate, we published a series of critiques from a friend who had built and was running a thriving medical tourism business.
He flew clients to Malaysia or the Cayman Islands for hip and knee surgeries that cost less — including airfare, recovery, and a week by the pool — than the same operation in Des Moines.
Naturally, Washington shut him down.
The Affordable Care Act was designed not to help patients but to domesticate insurers. Congress gave the insurance lobby the pen, and they wrote themselves a guaranteed market. We warned then that costs would double or triple for the middle class — and they have.
The ACA destroyed competition, inflated costs, and made dependency mandatory by law. It turned healthcare into a bureaucratic franchise where innovation goes to die.
Our friend closed his business and now drives a school bus. Washington got what it wanted: it replaced an entrepreneur with a public employee.
Act II: Performative Clowns
Who is Hakeem Jeffries?
We watched him for a few minutes grandstanding before the House, decrying a “Republican healthcare crisis,” as if melodrama itself could pass for policy. We don’t even know if he was around when the ACA was passed the first time; the bill was so bad they needed subsidies to achieve its objective of keeping premiums low.
Republicans, Jeffiries accused, were making the crisis worse by not extending the subsidies.
Mencken would’ve called him a “mountebank of virtue,” a performer so in love with his own indignation he forgets there’s an audience.
Did shutting down the government to “fight for affordability” persuade anyone? It merely demonstrates that Washington’s cure for dysfunction is more of the disease.
From the outside, it looks less like governance and more like professional wrestling — lots of shouting, no scorekeeping, and everyone cashing the same taxpayer-funded check.
Act III: The Affordability Problem — Not the Rate, the Reality
Affordability, we forecast, will be Merriam-Webster’s word of the year to 2026 — a catchall for the lingering ache of everything that costs more.
Politicians obsess over inflation rates because the percentages look good on charts, but voters feel price levels in their wallets.
Economist Stephen Roach pointed out this morning, disinflation only means prices are rising more slowly, not that they’re falling. Gas, groceries, housing — all still climbing, just politely.
Tariffs are now doing the inflationary heavy lifting, raising the CPI from 2.3% in April to 3% before the shutdown.
Washington will spend the next year blaming the numbers instead of fixing the math. Expect every campaign stump in 2026 to include the word “affordable” — housing, healthcare, child care, cat care.
The only thing left out will be common sense. And from Hakeem Jeffries and his ilk, you can also bet that every speech will include the word “fight” directly targeted at Donald Trump, the man.
Act IV: The Shutdown Shuffle
After 43 days of bureaucratic hostage-taking, the government has reopened. The House passed the bill 222–209, Trump signed it, and the Dow jumped like Pavlov’s mutt at the sound of kibble.
Seven Senate Democrats defected to break the logjam — proving that even the faithful have limits to their tolerance for theater.
More accurately, they won’t be on record complaining about “affordability” or inciting voters to “fight” against the president, because none are up for reelection.
About 800,000 federal workers are back on payroll, SNAP benefits are restored to a population the size of Canada, and the FAA promises your Thanksgiving flight may only be delayed, not canceled.
Meanwhile, the Fed is left blindfolded: no inflation data, no jobs report, and no idea what’s next. We’ll get a lot more on the data picture from Andrew Zatlin on Grey Swan Live! (See below).
It’s a perfect metaphor for American governance — flying outdated planes without instruments, but sure it still can land safely because it did once in 1973.
Act V: K-Pop Capitalism
While Washington produces political opera, South Korea exports pop music, drama, and face cream. Seoul has set its sights on becoming one of the “big-five” cultural powers by 2030, aiming for $36 billion in creative exports.
K-pop, K-dramas, and K-beauty are doing what U.S. policy wonks only talk about — turning culture into capital.
According to UNCTAD, creative goods exports declined to $10 billion in 2023 from $18 billion the previous year — but the intellectual property side continued to grow. South Korea’s creative industries are on pause, not decline.
Mencken once said, “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” Korea’s urge is to entertain humanity — and get rich doing it. That’s capitalism without the sermon.
Act VI: Markets on Mute
The Fed’s losing cast members faster than a summer stock play. Raphael Bostic’s leaving the Atlanta Fed in February; Adriana Kugler’s gone; Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran is waiting in the wings.
With missing data and mounting political pressure, the FOMC looks less like a monetary board and more like a séance: “Is there anybody there… who can see a rate cut?”
Markets, of course, don’t care. Hopium remains the market’s mineral.
Act VII: Trade, Chocolate, and Charm Diplomacy
Swiss negotiators arrived in Washington today to talk down tariffs on watches and chocolate — luxury diplomacy at its sweetest. The EU wants a piece of the same pie.
Meanwhile, Zelenskiy reminds Europe that Putin’s still playing chess while they’re haggling over cocoa.
The contrast is almost too rich: while America debates health insurance subsidies, the Swiss are exporting sugary sweets and precision; Ukraine beggars their neighbor, the EU.
Act VIII: Finance for the Masses
Blackstone’s Jon Gray is turning private equity into a “financial superstore for the dentist, lawyer, and teacher next door.” If that sounds like a sales pitch for democratized leverage, it is. And you’d best observe our forever advice when it comes to Wall Street: caveat emptor.
Mencken might have called it “hope for hire.” But in an age where the middle class is priced out of everything, the illusion of access may be the most valuable product left.
Curtain Call: The End of a Cent
The U.S. Mint struck its final penny yesterday. Two centuries of copper sentimentality are over.
The penny costs more than twice what it’s worth to make — a fitting tribute to fiscal management in Washington.
Retailers will now round to the nearest nickel, though the lawyers are already drafting lawsuits from shoppers who feel “rounded against.”
“Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage,” Menken says from his grave.
Washington may not mint pennies anymore, but it still mints absurdity at a profit.
~ Addison
P.S.: Grey Swan Live! Join us today at 2 p.m. ET for The Lasting Impact of the Government Shutdown on Markets with Andrew Zatlin — Bloomberg’s top-ranked forecaster and one of the few minds who can tell Washington’s kabuki from Wall Street’s arithmetic.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
