Pay Attention: History Is Rhyming

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

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In 2008, the market selloff was driven by a collapsing housing market and an insolvent banking system. In 2025? Who knows, perhaps a revolt against high debt, pushing interest rates higher at a time when they should be moving lower.

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

It may be time to take a page from Warren Buffett’s playbook by reducing some positions and raising some cash. Given the current yield on cash, that’s not a bad idea. And it’s not too late to add to hard asset positions such as gold and silver.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

For U.S. investors, tread lightly – these companies can only be bought on the pink sheets, where volume is light and prices can swing wildly. But if you’re looking for value now, going overseas may be just the place to do it.

Meanwhile, you can also join our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

Turn Your Images On

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.