Pay Attention: History Is Rhyming

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

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In 2008, the market selloff was driven by a collapsing housing market and an insolvent banking system. In 2025? Who knows, perhaps a revolt against high debt, pushing interest rates higher at a time when they should be moving lower.

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

It may be time to take a page from Warren Buffett’s playbook by reducing some positions and raising some cash. Given the current yield on cash, that’s not a bad idea. And it’s not too late to add to hard asset positions such as gold and silver.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

For U.S. investors, tread lightly – these companies can only be bought on the pink sheets, where volume is light and prices can swing wildly. But if you’re looking for value now, going overseas may be just the place to do it.

Meanwhile, you can also join our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

Turn Your Images On

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.