Pay Attention: History Is Rhyming

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

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In 2008, the market selloff was driven by a collapsing housing market and an insolvent banking system. In 2025? Who knows, perhaps a revolt against high debt, pushing interest rates higher at a time when they should be moving lower.

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

It may be time to take a page from Warren Buffett’s playbook by reducing some positions and raising some cash. Given the current yield on cash, that’s not a bad idea. And it’s not too late to add to hard asset positions such as gold and silver.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

For U.S. investors, tread lightly – these companies can only be bought on the pink sheets, where volume is light and prices can swing wildly. But if you’re looking for value now, going overseas may be just the place to do it.

Meanwhile, you can also join our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

In science and technology, progress is linear, marked by trial and error, and innovation is built on “what works.”

In politics, history and love, we humans never seem to learn.

In financial markets, it’s easy to see why people like to say history rhymes.

No matter how sophisticated or automated markets get, they’re still built by humans – meaning they’re built to oscillate between fear and greed, whether they know it or not.

The relentless retail buying we’ve seen in recent weeks feels like greed. But we’ve already had a big selloff and markets at high valuations.

Overlaying the S&P 500 in 2025 with 2008 shows a remarkable similarity so far:

Turn Your Images On

Markets are always prone to pullbacks at any time, and for many short-term reasons. But avoiding big losses in a bear market can significantly improve your lifetime investment returns.

~ Addison

P.S.: Looking for small-cap companies that are driven by fundamentals and not just retail sentiment? Join our Fraternity!

Each week, we explore more interesting investment ideas, often brought by our contributors and special guests.

For instance, in yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Chris Mayer, we explored some of Chris’s top investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

As we knock off for the week approaching mid-summer, it strikes us how hard it is to distinguish signal from noise. Markets defying gravity gives us pause.

Don’t buy in at elevated prices.

Keep your asset allocation in full view.

Buy cheap.

Sell dear.

It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

AI is buying engineers like they’re first-round picks. The military is investing in rare earths like it’s the 1950s space race. Tariffs are flying, cocoa’s getting scarce, and your cereal may soon come with a luxury markup.

None of it, likely, concerns your portfolio.

This new wave of tokenized shares is exciting. It has the potential to break down walls and democratize access to pre-IPO giants.

But at the moment, it’s also risky, opaque, and largely unregulated.

So while we applaud the innovation, we urge caution — especially if you’re being offered something that seems too good to be true.