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Ripple Effect

Overbought Territory, Day 70

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read


overboughtStock Market

Overbought Territory, Day 70

August has been a tumultuous month for each of the past 10 years.

Today, one-third of the way through the month, that trend is holding strong. And stocks have now posted their 70th consecutive day without dropping below  the 50-day moving average:

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Markets are having one of their longest periods of technical strength since the start of 2024.

Last week, rising odds for an interest rate cut in September extended the S&P 500 rally.

Fed chair Jerome Powell remains stalwart. So far, only two members of the Fed board of governors have registered dissent and voted for a cut. One of them, Christopher Waller, tops Trump’s list to replace Powell.

Under Trump, anything can happen…

For now, the August surprise is to the upside for stocks.

~ Addison

 

P.S. While stocks continue to trend higher on a potentially weakening economy (jobs report), there’s a good reason. Even without Fed rate cuts, global M2 money supply — aka cash — is also hitting historic highs. Central banks around the world have been printing money like we’re already in a debt crisis.

That bodes well for assets like bitcoin, which jumped back over $120,000 over the weekend – and gold, which broke $3,500 briefly last week.

Hard assets have more room to run – gold is still nowhere near our price estimate.

Keep an eye out, both gold and  bitcoin will likely hold up well in a garden-variety market pullback. In a massive drop, which tends to lead to liquidations across the board, however, all bets are off.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


American Autonomy

October 28, 2025 • John Robb

America’s role in the world isn’t that of the world’s policeman (a temporary post-World War II role foisted upon the U.S. due to the Cold War) or as the destination of immigrants (for most of the 20th century, when we saw the most significant increases in individual incomes and quality of life, the U.S. didn’t accept many immigrants). Instead, the role the U.S. has played throughout its existence is as the world’s leader in the production, adoption, and socioeconomic integration of new technologies. We figured out how to do it successfully first, and the world followed.

American Autonomy
The Liquidity Illusion

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AMD’s deal with OpenAI is another echo from 1999. OpenAI agreed to buy six gigawatts’ worth of AMD chips — products that don’t yet exist — in exchange for warrants on 160 million AMD shares, about 10% of the company. AMD stock jumped 24% overnight.

And then there’s Oracle’s $300 billion OpenAI contract — five times OpenAI’s annual revenue. Oracle’s stock soared 43% in a day, making Larry Ellison $100 billion richer.

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Gold’s Relative Strength

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative strength, or RSI, provides investors with a quick glance as to how much the market likes or hates a given asset. The correction is a welcome event for hard asset investors.

With the metal back under $4,000, our thesis remains untouched.

In fact, the pullback  – while sharp and severe – makes  gold a less expensive insurance policy against geopolitical shocks and other Grey Swan events.

Gold’s Relative Strength
Networked Nationalism Rises

October 27, 2025 • John Robb

On the current trajectory, online and offline tribal warfare, with events that range from assassinations to riots to sabotage, is inevitable. Worse still, with both sides waging moral warfare (good versus evil), there is no middle ground, rendering compromise impossible.

To avoid this, the government could step in to crack down on illegal immigrants, serial criminality, and activist blue cells to slow the ramp in extrajudicial violence from the red tribe. This would reduce the chance we see a rapid escalation in tit for tat violence. However, to do this, it would need to designate many activist groups as terrorist entities and pursue them with the degree of vigor we saw with Islamic radicals after 9/11.

Networked Nationalism Rises