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Ripple Effect

Overbought Territory, Day 70

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 11, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read


overboughtStock Market

Overbought Territory, Day 70

August has been a tumultuous month for each of the past 10 years.

Today, one-third of the way through the month, that trend is holding strong. And stocks have now posted their 70th consecutive day without dropping below  the 50-day moving average:

Turn Your Images On

Markets are having one of their longest periods of technical strength since the start of 2024.

Last week, rising odds for an interest rate cut in September extended the S&P 500 rally.

Fed chair Jerome Powell remains stalwart. So far, only two members of the Fed board of governors have registered dissent and voted for a cut. One of them, Christopher Waller, tops Trump’s list to replace Powell.

Under Trump, anything can happen…

For now, the August surprise is to the upside for stocks.

~ Addison

 

P.S. While stocks continue to trend higher on a potentially weakening economy (jobs report), there’s a good reason. Even without Fed rate cuts, global M2 money supply — aka cash — is also hitting historic highs. Central banks around the world have been printing money like we’re already in a debt crisis.

That bodes well for assets like bitcoin, which jumped back over $120,000 over the weekend – and gold, which broke $3,500 briefly last week.

Hard assets have more room to run – gold is still nowhere near our price estimate.

Keep an eye out, both gold and  bitcoin will likely hold up well in a garden-variety market pullback. In a massive drop, which tends to lead to liquidations across the board, however, all bets are off.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Ghost of Bastiat

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

The Ghost of Bastiat
The Dollar’s Long Goodbye

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Senator Rand Paul, (R. KY), who was the sole Republican to vote against a continuing resolution, seems to care about the actual finances of the government. “I would never vote for a bill that added $2 trillion in national debt,” Paul said in various interviews over the weekend.

The $2 trillion he’s referring to is the lesser of two proposals made by the national parties… and would accrue during this next fiscal year.

Oy.

We liked what Liz Wolfe at Reason wrote on Friday, so we’ll repeat it here: “One of the dirty little secrets of every shutdown is that everything remains mostly fine. Private markets could easily replace many federal functions.”

It’s a strange kind of confidence — one where Wall Street soars while Washington goes dark.

The Dollar’s Long Goodbye
A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.

The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade
Beware: The Permanent Underclass

October 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we recall mass layoffs were driving desperation.

Today, unemployment is relatively low, if climbing.

Affordability is much more of an issue. Food, rent, healthcare, and childcare are all rising faster than wages. Households aren’t jobless; they’re stretched. Job “quits” are at crisis-level lows.

In addition to the top 10% of earners, consumer spending is still strong. Not necessarily because of prosperity, but because households are taking extra shifts, hustling gigs, working late into the night, and using credit cards. The trends hold up demand but hollow out savings.

It’s the quiet form of financial repression. In an era of fiscal dominance, savers see easy returns clipped, workers stretch hours just to stay even, and wealth slips upward into assets while daily life grows harder to afford.

Beware: The Permanent Underclass