Markets are taking a fresh run at new all-time highs today. But beneath the surface of blowout earnings from big tech companies, the real economy is grappling with job growth.
The automatic reason given is “of course, AI is replacing jobs.” Not so fast.
One sign the real economy is struggling outside the tech sector? Declining truck sales, often a leading indicator of higher unemployment:
Truck sales are declining at a rate usually consistent with an economy in recession. (Source: Global Markets Investor)
AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes.
New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.
In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.
The lack of new entry-level jobs in the economy will be profundly shocking for the labor market for decades to come. Just as it always in the face of rapid new tech innovation.
~ Addison
P.S. “If it ain’t broke,” is how Andrew Packer kicked off the review of the Grey Swan Model Portfolio on Friday. The high market valuation was only part of the conversation during our quarterly review. Catch the replay in the members section of the Grey Swan website.
Precious metals also figured prominently during the review with a 10-sigma move in silver, which tanked 32%. Peak-to-trough, gold also fell 9%, under $5,000.
Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.
We’ll have updates on this week’s Grey Swan Live! shortly. Stay tuned!
