One Strong Sign of a Weak Labor Market

Markets are taking a fresh run at new all-time highs today. But beneath the surface of blowout earnings from big tech companies, the real economy is grappling with job growth.

The automatic reason given is “of course, AI is replacing jobs.” Not so fast.

One sign the real economy is struggling outside the tech sector? Declining truck sales, often a leading indicator of higher unemployment:

Turn Your Images On

Truck sales are declining at a rate usually consistent with an economy in recession. (Source: Global Markets Investor)

AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes.

New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.

In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.

The lack of new entry-level jobs in the economy will be profundly shocking for the labor market for decades to come. Just as it always in the face of rapid new tech innovation.

~ Addison

P.S. “If it ain’t broke,” is how Andrew Packer kicked off the review of the Grey Swan Model Portfolio on Friday. The high market valuation was only part of the conversation during our quarterly review. Catch the replay in the members section of the Grey Swan website.

Precious metals also figured prominently during the review with a 10-sigma move in silver, which tanked 32%. Peak-to-trough, gold also fell 9%, under $5,000.

Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

We’ll have updates on this week’s Grey Swan Live! shortly. Stay tuned!

Markets are taking a fresh run at new all-time highs today. But beneath the surface of blowout earnings from big tech companies, the real economy is grappling with job growth.

The automatic reason given is “of course, AI is replacing jobs.” Not so fast.

One sign the real economy is struggling outside the tech sector? Declining truck sales, often a leading indicator of higher unemployment:

Turn Your Images On

Truck sales are declining at a rate usually consistent with an economy in recession. (Source: Global Markets Investor)

AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes.

New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.

In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.

The lack of new entry-level jobs in the economy will be profundly shocking for the labor market for decades to come. Just as it always in the face of rapid new tech innovation.

~ Addison

Precious metals also figured prominently during the review with a 10-sigma move in silver, which tanked 32%. Peak-to-trough, gold also fell 9%, under $5,000.

We’ll have updates on this week’s Grey Swan Live! shortly. Stay tuned!

For months, speculation swirled like chimney smoke in a snowstorm. Would Trump tap a dove? A loyalist? A Wall Street man in a red hat? Warsh checks none of those boxes — and all of them.

He’s a former Fed governor, a Goldman alum, and a card-carrying skeptic of central bank omnipotence.

He’s said, “The Fed is not independent from government. It is independent within government,” which sounds like something out of a fortune cookie written by Hayek.

He doesn’t want the Fed playing God, and he’s not keen on printing money to mop up Congress’s mess. He believes in limits. In credibility. In consequences.

Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.

Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor and one-time Morgan Stanley hand, is officially President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The choice is meant to be brazen, if not entirely unexpected. Despite having been nominated in his first go in the Oval Office, Trump has been gunning for Jerome Powell since Day One of his second term.

Now, Warsh, whose libertarian-leaning critique of the Fed has hovered like a drone over Jackson Hole for years, will succeed Powell should the Senate confirm him before May 15, 2026.

The analysis we’ve published of the main drivers for gold applies to silver and bitcoin, too. The latter two, however, remain more speculative and gap down and spike up more dramatically.

If you’re leveraged to silver, whether through mining companies, ETFs, or the like, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table. And keep your eyes peeled for future moves upward.