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Ripple Effect

Oil’s Undervalued

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 25, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read

Oil
Oil’s Undervalued

In the age of AI, oil isn’t just possibly made from dinosaurs — it is a dinosaur. Nobody’s running a data center on diesel, opting instead for nuclear.

As a result, oil prices have largely traded in a sideways $60-$70 range over the past few years. And relative to gold, oil is now substantially undervalued:

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Gold’s price is far above oil’s, a trend that’s likely to close up. (Source: Trading View)

We like the value proposition in oil today. We don’t see gold going lower.

Oil is going higher.

In real, inflation-adjusted terms, bubblin’ crude is cheap. And it’s still valuable for transportation, plastics, backup power, you name it.

The big oil companies have reasonable cash flows and pay big dividends — including the player in our model portfolio.

And in a world where commodity prices are trending higher, oil prices may be the next to pop.

~ Addison

P.S. It’s no surprise we’ve got commodities on the brain: This afternoon on Grey Swan Live!, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer and contributor Shad Marquitz will review the latest developments in the commodity space and determine the best commodity plays through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!
Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes
Debt Is the Message, 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

Debt Is the Message, 2026
Mind Your Allocation In 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Mind Your Allocation In 2026