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Ripple Effect

Oil’s Undervalued

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

September 25, 2025 • 1 minute, 6 second read


Oil

Oil’s Undervalued

In the age of AI, oil isn’t just possibly made from dinosaurs — it is a dinosaur. Nobody’s running a data center on diesel, opting instead for nuclear.

As a result, oil prices have largely traded in a sideways $60-$70 range over the past few years. And relative to gold, oil is now substantially undervalued:

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Gold’s price is far above oil’s, a trend that’s likely to close up. (Source: Trading View)

We like the value proposition in oil today. We don’t see gold going lower.

Oil is going higher.

In real, inflation-adjusted terms, bubblin’ crude is cheap. And it’s still valuable for transportation, plastics, backup power, you name it.

The big oil companies have reasonable cash flows and pay big dividends — including the player in our model portfolio.

And in a world where commodity prices are trending higher, oil prices may be the next to pop.

~ Addison

P.S. It’s no surprise we’ve got commodities on the brain: This afternoon on Grey Swan Live!, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer and contributor Shad Marquitz will review the latest developments in the commodity space and determine the best commodity plays through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Off the Rails

September 26, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The gold standard came into being in the 18th century. It got gassed in WWI. Then, after WWII, it was re-established, sort of. The dollar was made the key financial reserve. And the dollar was linked to gold.

Then, in 1971, the last link with gold was cut. Since then, several efforts were made to re-install some sort of guardrails. In the ‘70s, we were personally part of the drive for a Constitutional Amendment that would make deficits illegal. In the ‘80s, our friend Grover Norquist succeeded in getting prospective members of Congress to sign The Pledge, crossing their hearts and hoping to die if they increased taxes

Off the Rails
When Good News is Bad News

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s not a secret that Trump’s mercantilism looks backward. Making America great again is inherently nostalgic, fomenting into dreams of resurrected domestic factories, punishing imports, and using the American consumer as so many poker chips in some post-industrial game of five-card stud.

China’s mercantilism since Deng Xiaoping told his subjects that “getting rich is glorious” in 1978 has been looking forward: capturing tomorrow’s industries — AI, quantum computing, green tech — before anyone else can.

Adam Smith warned that mercantilism’s obsession with trade surpluses was “incompatible with the accumulation of wealth for citizens.”

Today, that warning rings fresh. Investors are no longer betting on markets alone, but on their marriage to state power. Lithium in Nevada, chips in Minnesota, sovereign gold in Shanghai — these are the dowries of the new era.

When Good News is Bad News
The Blow-Off Top Is Coming

September 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.

Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.

The Blow-Off Top Is Coming
Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing

September 25, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Kicking off the next money-printing cycle from $6.6 trillion instead of $4 trillion — with so much pandemic-era cash still sloshing around the system — all but guarantees double-digit inflation. We’re talking about potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Position accordingly.

Powell’s Capitulation and the Road Back to Money Printing