New Year, New Record High

Household debt continues to rise, not just in total dollars, but as a percentage of gross disposable income:

Turn Your Images On

Households continue to increase their total debt (Source: Goldman Sachs)

Interest rates are coming down, emboldening consumers to take on more debt.

The latest data highlights a central feature of the real economy. Americans no longer manage savings and income but credit cards, HELOCs, and mortgages in an effort to keep up appearances.

Day-to-day expenses, health insurance, housing, car payments and tuition will continue to plague Americans throughout the year ahead of going to the polls in November.

~ Addison

P.S. We just wrapped our first Grey Swan Live! of the year, with Matt Smith, publisher at Casey Research. Matt and co-author Doug Casey have just released a new book titledThe Preparation.

Quick hit: Since 2021, Matt has been operating a “regenerative” cattle ranch in Uruguay.

The Preparation: How to Become Competent, Confident and Dangerous lays out a 16-cycle skills-based alternative to traditional 4-year college degrees.

Maxim Smith, Matt’s 20-year-old son, is on his way to Thailand for an intense training course in martial arts. That’s part of cycle number 4 in the program.

Last year, he crewed a sailing vessel on a journey across the Atlantic from the Falkland Islands to the southern tip of Africa.

Our conversation with Matt was on a different plane than our usual Live! themes. It’ll be well worth your time to listen to the replay, which will be posted to the Grey Swan Live archive in the members’ section later today.

We also recommend members buy a copy of The Preparation for a young man in their lives.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Household debt continues to rise, not just in total dollars, but as a percentage of gross disposable income:

Turn Your Images On

Households continue to increase their total debt (Source: Goldman Sachs)

Interest rates are coming down, emboldening consumers to take on more debt.

The latest data highlights a central feature of the real economy. Americans no longer manage savings and income but credit cards, HELOCs, and mortgages in an effort to keep up appearances.

Day-to-day expenses, health insurance, housing, car payments and tuition will continue to plague Americans throughout the year ahead of going to the polls in November.

~ Addison

P.S. We just wrapped our first Grey Swan Live! of the year, with Matt Smith, publisher at Casey Research. Matt and co-author Doug Casey have just released a new book titledThe Preparation.

Quick hit: Since 2021, Matt has been operating a “regenerative” cattle ranch in Uruguay.

The Preparation: How to Become Competent, Confident and Dangerous lays out a 16-cycle skills-based alternative to traditional 4-year college degrees.

Maxim Smith, Matt’s 20-year-old son, is on his way to Thailand for an intense training course in martial arts. That’s part of cycle number 4 in the program.

Last year, he crewed a sailing vessel on a journey across the Atlantic from the Falkland Islands to the southern tip of Africa.

We also recommend members buy a copy of The Preparation for a young man in their lives.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!