National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Oct 22, 2024

As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 election, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied across swing states – and new polling shows that the national debt is a critical issue for voters in these decisive states. More than 9-in-10 voters across seven key states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — say it’s important for candidates to have a plan for the debt, including 95% of Harris voters, 97% of Trump voters and 95% of undecided voters.

Additionally, 3-in-4 voters in these battleground states say they want candidates to talk more about the debt and their plans to address it – outpacing the percentages of voters who say the same for other hot button election issues including immigration, abortion, climate change and foreign policy.

Thus far neither candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. A recent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Harris’s campaign plan would increase the debt by $3.5 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion. But there’s still time for candidates to put forward plans, and there are many policy options to choose from.

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Swing state voters care about the national debt.

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Tweet: So far, neither Presidential candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. https://ctt.ec/KMVOW+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Battleground state voters want a plan for the national debt even if it means spending cuts and/or tax increases. https://ctt.ec/Vj57l+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Three in four swing state voters want to hear more from Presidential candidates about addressing the national debt. That’s more than say the same for other hot button election issues. https://ctt.ec/H6Lez+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Swing state voters want Presidential candidates to address the national debt because they know it affects other key economic issues. https://ctt.ec/QzKoL+ via @pgpfoundation

National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Oct 22, 2024

Download as PDF

Swing state voters care about the national debt.

Want to share this image on your site? Copy and paste the embed code below:

Feel free to share this infographic on Twitter.

Tweet: So far, neither Presidential candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. https://ctt.ec/KMVOW+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Battleground state voters want a plan for the national debt even if it means spending cuts and/or tax increases. https://ctt.ec/Vj57l+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Swing state voters want Presidential candidates to address the national debt because they know it affects other key economic issues. https://ctt.ec/QzKoL+ via @pgpfoundation

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.