National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Oct 22, 2024

As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 election, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied across swing states – and new polling shows that the national debt is a critical issue for voters in these decisive states. More than 9-in-10 voters across seven key states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — say it’s important for candidates to have a plan for the debt, including 95% of Harris voters, 97% of Trump voters and 95% of undecided voters.

Additionally, 3-in-4 voters in these battleground states say they want candidates to talk more about the debt and their plans to address it – outpacing the percentages of voters who say the same for other hot button election issues including immigration, abortion, climate change and foreign policy.

Thus far neither candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. A recent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Harris’s campaign plan would increase the debt by $3.5 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion. But there’s still time for candidates to put forward plans, and there are many policy options to choose from.

Download as PDF

Swing state voters care about the national debt.

Want to share this image on your site? Copy and paste the embed code below:

Feel free to share this infographic on Twitter.

Tweet: So far, neither Presidential candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. https://ctt.ec/KMVOW+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Battleground state voters want a plan for the national debt even if it means spending cuts and/or tax increases. https://ctt.ec/Vj57l+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Three in four swing state voters want to hear more from Presidential candidates about addressing the national debt. That’s more than say the same for other hot button election issues. https://ctt.ec/H6Lez+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Swing state voters want Presidential candidates to address the national debt because they know it affects other key economic issues. https://ctt.ec/QzKoL+ via @pgpfoundation

National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Oct 22, 2024

Download as PDF

Swing state voters care about the national debt.

Want to share this image on your site? Copy and paste the embed code below:

Feel free to share this infographic on Twitter.

Tweet: So far, neither Presidential candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. https://ctt.ec/KMVOW+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Battleground state voters want a plan for the national debt even if it means spending cuts and/or tax increases. https://ctt.ec/Vj57l+ via @pgpfoundation

Tweet: Swing state voters want Presidential candidates to address the national debt because they know it affects other key economic issues. https://ctt.ec/QzKoL+ via @pgpfoundation

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market.

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present.

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.

That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.

I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.

Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.