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Beneath the Surface

National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Loading ...Andrew Packer

October 23, 2024 • 1 minute, 45 second read


National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

National Debt a Critical Election Issue for Swing State Voters

Oct 22, 2024

As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 election, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied across swing states – and new polling shows that the national debt is a critical issue for voters in these decisive states. More than 9-in-10 voters across seven key states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — say it’s important for candidates to have a plan for the debt, including 95% of Harris voters, 97% of Trump voters and 95% of undecided voters.

Additionally, 3-in-4 voters in these battleground states say they want candidates to talk more about the debt and their plans to address it – outpacing the percentages of voters who say the same for other hot button election issues including immigration, abortion, climate change and foreign policy.

Thus far neither candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. A recent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Harris’s campaign plan would increase the debt by $3.5 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion. But there’s still time for candidates to put forward plans, and there are many policy options to choose from.


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Swing state voters care about the national debt.


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Tweet: So far, neither Presidential candidate has put forward a plan to address our $35 trillion national debt. https://ctt.ec/KMVOW+ via @pgpfoundation


Tweet: Battleground state voters want a plan for the national debt even if it means spending cuts and/or tax increases. https://ctt.ec/Vj57l+ via @pgpfoundation


Tweet: Three in four swing state voters want to hear more from Presidential candidates about addressing the national debt. That’s more than say the same for other hot button election issues. https://ctt.ec/H6Lez+ via @pgpfoundation


Tweet: Swing state voters want Presidential candidates to address the national debt because they know it affects other key economic issues. https://ctt.ec/QzKoL+ via @pgpfoundation


Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity
Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

December 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the socialist agenda lands, the reaction matters as much as the results of the initial vote.

A hostile House gridlocks legislation. Investigations proliferate. Impeachment chatter returns. Executive authority stretches to compensate.

The political goal of the reactionary strategist will be to muck up the Trump realignment as much as possible to regain power in the House, the Senate (eventually), fortify the courts and ultimately take back the Oval Office. 

Trump will not face a midterm defeat like past lame-duck presidents. We’ll see a host of creative efforts to assert executive authority and override the people’s House. The checks and balances bestowed by Montesquieu at the very root of the Republic will be tested as never before.

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House
Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy