As the light fails in this current world order, we begin to see the outlines of the next.
What we call the “news” today are really just tremors from deeper tectonic shifts. The Earth’s crust does not ask permission before it buckles. History doesn’t text a warning.
Call it the convergence of metacycles.
For better or worse, we’re intrigued by the idea that the history of the world repeats various patterns. We’re also convinced that if we understand them, we can better prepare for the future. Hopefully, you’re interested in going along for the ride…
Across 1,000 years of centralization and decentralization, the pendulum now swings against empire. After centuries of consolidation—from the gunpowder monarchies to Bretton Woods—we are re-entering a world of nodes, enclaves, and municipal self-reliance. Power is pried from the center by digital code and brittle budgets.
Every 250 years or so, orders collapse under their own accumulated contradictions.
The United States turns 250 this year. The math and the myth no longer reconcile. As Ray Dalio’s work on Big Cycles reminds us, late-stage empires tend to combine bad debt, internal divisions, declining returns on education, and fiscal overreach. At some point, the obligations exceed the output. The center squeezes tighter. The provinces pull away.
So-called “Fourth Turnings” in demographics, the theory goes, come once per long lifetime. They’re violent, catalytic, and formative. Ours began in the early 2000s. It is peaking now. Nobody gets to sit this one out.
Monetary regimes have their own cadence: about 50 years. Gold to war finance. Bretton Woods to fiat. Fiat to… something else. It’s been 53 years since Nixon unhooked the dollar. The next definition looms.
And then there’s the innovation cycle, which typically takes 16-19 years. AI, crypto, biolabs, space minerals. Each platform decentralizes, then invites regulation. Every new tool threatens an old rent. And every administrator thinks they can out-code the coders.
This year, 2026, five of these wave-patterns converge like surf behind a storm front. More than watching the market, anymore, we’re watching a reset. Last year, we called it the Trump’s Great Reset… or the grand realignment… this year we’ll find out if the rapid technological, political and economic changes are even bigger than the president’s family name… and brand.
Minneapolis and the Widening Crack
Six federal grand jury subpoenas. That’s what it took to get Minnesota’s political establishment to acknowledge that something deeper is fraying beneath the surface.
Cam Higby, a citizen journalist, infiltrated encrypted Signal groups organizing mobile patrols to track and obstruct ICE agents. These weren’t random activists. They were coordinated. Each emoji had a job. Each group had a quadrant. The city’s digital underground operated like a resistance cell — complete with dispatch, surveillance, and strike coordination.
This is more than a performative protest. It smacks of parallel governance. Which, um, hasn’t been allowed in the United States since around 1865, or so.
President Trump, citing “complete breakdown of trust,” appointed Tom Homan border czar and dispatched him to Minneapolis. Governor Walz called the move “provocative.” Trump called it “productive.”
Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are threatening to shut down the government — again — unless DHS funding is stripped from this week’s appropriations. Republicans call it sabotage. Democrats say it’s accountability. Either way, funding runs out Friday.
Polymarket bettors now assign an 80% chance of a new government shutdown. Just three days ago, it was 9%.
The Fed’s Next Chair? A Balance Sheet Romantic
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global fixed-income chief, has leapfrogged several contenders in the race to succeed Jerome Powell. (If you’re keeping track, we misspoke yesterday naming BlackRock CFO, Martin Small. Nostra culpa.)
The reason? Rieder speaks in a language President Trump loves: lower rates, fiscal accommodation, and a bigger role for the Fed’s balance sheet.
The betting markets have seen Rick Reider, global income chief for BlackRock, leapfrog Hassett and Warsh on the list of Trump’s potential Jerome Powell successors on May 15, 2026 (Source: CNBC)
In two clips circulating widely among policy circles, Rieder: – Advocates for cutting rates much lower – Embraces fiscal dominance as a constraint – Urges the Fed to deploy its balance sheet in “innovative ways”.
Translation: you don’t own enough hard assets.
And Wall Street knows it.
You Don’t Own Enough Hard Assets
The gold market is looking a lot like the pre-blizzard Trader Joe’s snack aisle this weekend. The price of Wall Street’s comfort food surged as much as 2.5% yesterday, shooting to a record $5,137 per ounce at the open this morning, now putting it on track for the best year since 1979, a time of geopolitical mayhem during the last monetary cycle.
Today’s surge past $5,100, is partially driven by anxieties over President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canada this weekend due to its trade dealings with China and fears of a possible partial government shutdown over ICE funding.
The jolt added momentum to last week’s rally, propelled by the U.S.–Europe standoff over Trump’s Greenland annexation aspirations and Japan’s bond market meltdown.
It’s not just newsy chaos that has everyone from your day-trading nephew to central banks binge-buying bullion. Over the past year, gold has climbed more than 80%.
Why?
Because inflation isn’t dead. Because debt isn’t sustainable. Because equities look priced to perfection. Because bonds yield less than honest work. And because every institution you thought was safe is now a political football.
Is it peak gold? Maybe. But previous gold rallies have lasted for years. The storm hasn’t passed — it’s only beginning to darken. Many of the risks keeping investors up at night are unlikely to go away soon.
The Wall Street macromavens, like our buddy Stephanie Pomboy, are straight out of interviews on Fox Business and Bloomberg News because the professional money managers are so accustomed to hocking tech stocks they don’t understand the mechanics of a resource bull market.
As our Shad Marquitz has outlined on Grey Swan Live! Investment capital is starting to flow into the miners and royalty companies in earnest.
The last time we saw this much enthusiasm for natural resources was 2011-2015, a four-year stretch that followed the global financial crisis in ‘08 and included the shale boom in oil.
“None of us owns enough hard assets,” Tavi Costa remarked on X this morning.
A Time to Reckon
Elsewhere, India and the EU finally struck a trade deal 20 years in the making — one that wipes tariffs off 90% of goods and cuts duties on cars and wine to levels that might finally allow a German sedan to survive in the subcontinent.
The EU and India have deepened their economic friendship since Trump spooked the global economic order with tariffs in 2025. We’re expecting a lot more trade deals like this to come before 2026 is in the books. (Source: Rand McNally)
Europe’s pivot to India is not about commerce alone. It’s about exit options. Hedging against U.S. financial weaponization. Detaching from petrodollar politics. Realigning trade around multipolar nodes.
Back in the U.S., the ghost of social media addiction is finally standing trial. Jury selection begins today in Los Angeles in the first major civil case against Meta, TikTok, and YouTube. The charge? Designing platforms that knowingly addict children. It won’t be the last. There are 5,000+ suits in the pipeline.
Meanwhile, GameStop — yes, GameStop — is back in the headlines. Michael Burry, the Big Short legend, revealed he’s been buying again. CEO Ryan Cohen bought another 500,000 shares. On two consecutive days. And somewhere in middle America, a teenager just downloaded Robinhood again.
The closing act may look like parody. But the cycle beneath it is very real.
Memory, Meaning, and the Moral Core
Seventy-nine years ago today, Soviet troops liberated Auschwitz.
They found 7,000 starving survivors, six warehouses filled with clothes and shoes, and the smoldering remnants of four gas chambers the Nazis tried to blow up before fleeing. The SS had executed hundreds of sick prisoners before retreating. Josef Mengele’s medical notebooks were left behind.
A time for remembrance and quiet reflection. Despite our Western view that history is linear, war and divisive politics occur in very destructive waves every 4 generations. (Source: The History Channel.)
It’s worth remembering what actual tyranny looks like. It doesn’t wear an ICE badge or try to uphold existing laws. It builds crematoria and lies about the ashes.
For all the knuckleheads comparing ICE to the Gestapo, perhaps crack a book before tweeting. History doesn’t repeat, but it demands vigilance. Your vigilance.
~ Addison
P.S. Appropriate to “earnings week” this week: During this innovation cycle in tech… in just the last year…. the “Mag 7” stocks have created over $1.8 trillion in new wealth.
It’s astounding, really. And historic.
The surging stocks of these 7 companies — Google, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Microsoft and Nvidia — have helped mint over 560,000 new American millionaires – enough new millionaires to fill 10 NFL stadiums!
But stats like that don’t matter much if you didn’t buy in on the cheap, before they became the Mag 7, correct?
Honorary Grey Swan member and contributor Mat Milner has identified 7 private companies he has researched that will become the next group of high-flying tech stocks… regardless of what the indexes do in 2026.
If you want a sneak peek at Matt’s research and ideas, add your e-mail address to the list right here.
We’ll follow up tomorrow and Thursday.
P.P.S. This Thursday, on Grey Swan Live!, we’ll take a siesta with Ronan McMahon from Real Estate Trend Alert.
We love Ronan and his investment strategy. We expect you will, too. This week he’s reporting on real estate deals from Mexico, Paraguay, (and Venezuela!). Beachfront condos for $15,000. Tax-advantaged agricultural land. Off-grid retreats. After weeks like this one, parallel systems start to look less exotic and more prudent.
We’re particularly interested in how Ronan’s investors are doing with their investment-grade properties, designed to deliver a return on investment, as well as the opportunity to enjoy warmer climes in February.
Join us for Grey Swan Live! On Thursday, January 29, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PST. We’ll send a link to paid-up members…
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
