Meltdown

“War is the unfolding of miscalculations.”

– Barbara Tuchman

Although markets are focused on tariff talk, plenty of global flashpoints remain.
Grey Swan contributor John Robb explores one of them…

May 27, 2025 — With the shooting of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, DC, let’s revisit the current status of the Gaza war.

Israel’s losses in the global network war over Gaza continue to mount;

• An overwhelming majority of EU member states are pushing for sanctions against Israel. The UK and France are leading the charge on economic sanctions. Spain is pushing for cultural bans (Eurovision) and may recognize Palestine. Heard often: “Monstrous,” “Abhorrent,” “Extremist.”
• The US is distancing itself. Trump has gaslit Israel with an over-the-top claim that the US will fix Gaza (rebuild and displace), while cutting deals with Gulf monarchs, Iran, and the Houthis without Israeli input.
• Opposition to Israel in the US is growing on the right and the left as Israel’s network clamps down on free speech in the US. China is running a very popular disinformation campaign on social media, seen by hundreds of millions, claiming it will intervene militarily to save Gaza. Over 50 million people saw the example below.

Let’s review how we got here before we figure out where this is going.

Continued Below…

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A Networked Terrain

Like Russia, Israel blundered. They engaged in war without understanding that the terrain of their future conflicts had shifted to the global network.

• Due to this shift, they lost their ability to fight protracted wars in isolation (minimal coverage) or control the narrative (Israel’s network).
• When they launched their wars, Israel and Russia met a global tribalized opposition that mobilized support for their foe instead of the silence (Russia) or support (Israel’s network) they were accustomed to.
• This networked opposition radically increased the difficulty of these protracted wars as support for their foe grew, morally isolating (a consequence of moral warfare) them from the rest of the world.

Baited

Hamas clearly understood that the terrain had shifted and clearly understood their enemy’s weaknesses.

• Hamas used Israel’s belief in its superiority, infallibility, and invulnerability to execute a successful surprise attack (primarily against military targets).
• Guerrilla wars use the moral realm of conflict. Strong against weak. Every extreme reaction made by the state against a weak foe proves that they are evil and illegitimate.
• As Hamas anticipated, these same weaknesses led Israel (like so many states before it) to make a disproportionate military response to the attack, killing tens of thousands, and locking Israel into a protracted guerrilla war. A decisive blunder in a global network war against a firmly entrenched networked tribal opposition.

Damage Control

Instead of recognizing that it had already lost, and continued to lose, the war, Israel’s network doubled down.

• The time bomb. Israel’s network discovered that it had lost generational support. The majority of people under thirty in the US and around the world support the anti-Israel network (they tie it to anti-racism, fascism, and colonialism). As a result, flows on packetized media networks were running 100-1 against Israel.
• Censorship. In response to this realization, Israel’s network cracked down on packetized social media. A campaign targeting Musk and attempting to shut down TikTok led to topic deceleration and data sharing.
• Crackdown. The network attempted to ban peaceful demonstrations (sit-ins) at Universities, using hate crime empathy triggers to mobilize congressional and alumni pressure. This effort led to an explosion of protests that only ended with a police crackdown (made possible by political pressure).

‘Anti-Semitism’ as a Label

We’ve recently seen some significant changes at the network level.

• During Trump’s first term in office, the blue tribal network waged an online moral war against him. To wage this war against Trump, the blue tribe called him and his supporters racist and sexist. At the time, those terms had a moral weight built up over decades, leading to those accused being banned from social networks or fired from work.
• However, the misuse and overuse of these terms to wage a network political war quickly diminished their moral weight. Soon, claiming a person’s speech was ‘racist’ or ‘sexist’ resulted in little to no reaction, either by society at large or at the individual level. We’re seeing the same thing happening with the term ‘anti-semitism.’
• Using the term anti-semitism as a weapon to shut down critiques of Israel or its conduct has radically diminished its moral weight. Since the intended use of the term was to shut down free speech on social networks or through ICE raids, it has led to the formation of networks on the left and the right that dismiss the term entirely (over seventy years of effort down the drain).

Isolation

Now that the war in Gaza has entered a pacification stage (minimal combat operations), the situation has gotten worse.

• Deadly daily bombings and the ongoing blockade on aid shipments (threatening mass starvation) have led to a shift in support. Unable and unwilling to excuse Israel’s actions anymore, states are distancing themselves. Recent US, EU, and China actions — from snubs to denouncements to talk of sanctions — are examples. Soon, this distancing will become bans and sanctions (model for this: South Africa).
• On social networks and in society as a whole, the often heavy-handed crackdown on critics has made opposition to Israel far more popular than it would have been otherwise. Inside the left and right networks, big accounts opposing Israel have emerged in the same way opposition to the woke networked left emerged during Biden’s term in office, with similar results. With this new dynamic in place, it may not take a generation for the US to turn against Israel (this is important).
• Despite growing isolation at the state level and ongoing losses across social networks, it’s unlikely that Israel will relent. Ending the war quickly would likely result in a flood of empathy triggers that *might”* generate a spontaneous swarm of outrage targeting Israel and its supporters worldwide. If they continue with the pacification effort, the push by states to sanction, ban, and isolate Israel will accelerate as horror stories leak out.

For Israel, the best strategy is to end the war quickly, fade from view, and aggressively repair any relationships damaged by this disaster. Moreover, if it ends soon, it may be possible to preserve some of the moral weight that ‘anti-semitism’ once held.

John Robb
Global Guerillas & Grey Swan

P.S. from Addison: John’s work on network warfare and politics is highly insightful. He provides members with a distinct lens through which to view the headline news.

With global markets focused on the latest tariff talk, it’s always good to get a sense of which geopolitical hotspot could erupt next. With plenty of global flashpoints around the world, gold is set up to be a winner – as are stocks that stand to benefit from President Trump’s Great Reset agenda.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com