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Ripple Effect

Meager Pickings for Shoppers

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 2, 2025 • 1 minute, 12 second read


Shipping

Meager Pickings for Shoppers

Stocks and gold are at all-time highs. But the real economy is flashing crisis-level warnings.

One source of alternative data — cargo rates — shows that physical goods aren’t in demand.

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Cargo container rates from Asia to the U.S. are back near pandemic-era levels  (Source: Zerohedge)

The cost to ship cars, refrigerators, and Christmas toys has fallen back to numbers we last saw when the economy was on lockdown.

For these rates to rise, demand for goods needs to rise…. unlikely as President Trump’s tariff strategy is intended to reshore domestic production of these goods in the U.S.

Until factories come online, there will be fewer goods on the shelves. Combined with declining jobs and stubborn inflation, however, that fact may go unnoticed this holiday season.

~ Addison

 

P.S. We’re going live with Mark Jeftovic shortly in Grey Swan Live! today at 2 p.m. ET. We’ve received a bevy of questions about Dollar 2.0 and the future of the world’s reserve currency. Mark, Andrew and I will field them all and review your options as the U.S. dollar enters the digital age with the Trump administration’s full support.

Your money is changing as we speak. You don’t want to miss today’s Grey Swan Live!, sign up now if you haven’t done so already.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Debt of Intelligence

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

SoftBank offloaded its entire $5.83 billion Nvidia stake to bankroll an even bigger gamble: tens of billions in OpenAI.

Son insists this is his next Vision Fund moment.

OpenAI’s swelling valuation doubled SoftBank’s profit last quarter. He may have sold the pickaxe factory, but he’s betting the mine still goes deeper.

The Debt of Intelligence
Consumers Got the Memo

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Although consumer debt is at an all-time high, consumers themselves got the message during the last crisis: Pay down debt, own more assets.

That’s taken the U.S. household debt-to-asset ratio to levels last seen in the 1970s, around the time the U.S. went off the gold standard.

Consumers Got the Memo
Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A 50-year mortgage doesn’t make housing cheaper. But by stretching the repayment period over time, it DOES lower the monthly payment on your principal. That lowers the percentage of your total income you’re spending on repayment. And in a strange way, it makes sense.

With a fixed rate mortgage and inflation running in the high upper digits, the real value you of your total debt goes down over time (inflation pays off your loan, as long as your income rises faster in nominal terms). Of course you pay off a lot more interest over 50 years than 30 years. And it takes a lot longer to build up equity (assuming also that house prices don’t fall).

Dan Denning: The Hollow Class, Part I
An Armistice of Convenience

November 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Last night’s 60–40 Senate vote shoved the government back toward “on.” There’s apparently a shutdown truce… for now.

A bloc of Democrats “crossed the aisle” after weeks of getting nowhere on health-care demands. “We had no path forward… and SNAP beneficiaries were losing benefits,” Sen. Tim Kaine, one of the 7 who conveniently aren’t up for reelection, said.

The new deal funds Washington only through January, tacks on three bills to keep parts of Defense, Ag, and the Capitol complex humming through 2026, reverses shutdown-era RIFs, and restores back pay.

The House is next; the president says he’ll sign it fast when it gets to the Oval Office.

An Armistice of Convenience