Meager Pickings for Shoppers

Stocks and gold are at all-time highs. But the real economy is flashing crisis-level warnings.

One source of alternative data — cargo rates — shows that physical goods aren’t in demand.

Turn Your Images On

Cargo container rates from Asia to the U.S. are back near pandemic-era levels (Source: Zerohedge)

The cost to ship cars, refrigerators, and Christmas toys has fallen back to numbers we last saw when the economy was on lockdown.

For these rates to rise, demand for goods needs to rise…. unlikely as President Trump’s tariff strategy is intended to reshore domestic production of these goods in the U.S.

Until factories come online, there will be fewer goods on the shelves. Combined with declining jobs and stubborn inflation, however, that fact may go unnoticed this holiday season.

~ Addison

P.S. We’re going live with Mark Jeftovic shortly in Grey Swan Live! today at 2 p.m. ET. We’ve received a bevy of questions about Dollar 2.0 and the future of the world’s reserve currency. Mark, Andrew and I will field them all and review your options as the U.S. dollar enters the digital age with the Trump administration’s full support.

Your money is changing as we speak. You don’t want to miss today’s Grey Swan Live!, sign up now if you haven’t done so already.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Stocks and gold are at all-time highs. But the real economy is flashing crisis-level warnings.

One source of alternative data — cargo rates — shows that physical goods aren’t in demand.

Turn Your Images On

Cargo container rates from Asia to the U.S. are back near pandemic-era levels (Source: Zerohedge)

The cost to ship cars, refrigerators, and Christmas toys has fallen back to numbers we last saw when the economy was on lockdown.

For these rates to rise, demand for goods needs to rise…. unlikely as President Trump’s tariff strategy is intended to reshore domestic production of these goods in the U.S.

Until factories come online, there will be fewer goods on the shelves. Combined with declining jobs and stubborn inflation, however, that fact may go unnoticed this holiday season.

~ Addison

Your money is changing as we speak. You don’t want to miss today’s Grey Swan Live!, sign up now if you haven’t done so already.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Debts and deficits will eventually cause a crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s effort to help bail out the Japanese Yen this week is entirely motivated by self-preservation. The contagion signal flashing in Japanese bonds since late ‘25 is infecting the BOJ, which may be forced to sell U.S. Treasurys to stabilize its own currency.

The copper price is no doubt benefiting from inflation driven by money printing. But the doc don’t lie. Copper’s new all-time highs, while gold and silver still languish, are a sign the AI growth story is also that of the global economy itself.

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.

What’s happening? The Bank of Japan and the U.S. Treasury are making a coordinated effort to support Japanese yen; a move last attempted nearly 30 years in the height of the Asian Financial contagion (1998).

Many miners were profitable with gold around $2,000 and silver near $50. At sustained prices closer to $4,000 gold and $60 silver, the arithmetic changes dramatically.

The stock market is getting an unexpected boost to kick off August, bucking the historically weak summer session for the U.S. stock market.