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Ripple Effect

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 3, 2025 • 52 second read


tariffstrade deals

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is more than half over – just 35 days remain.

Despite some positive headlines driving retail investors into the stock market, few significant deals have been inked.

Market investors aren’t the only ones who remain bullish. Betting markets also see a 66% chance — two-to-one odds — that President Trump will remove reciprocal tariffs.

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If the markets are wrong, we could be in for another round of what we call the Great Fire – part of President Trump’s plans for a Great Reset of the U.S. economy focused on private-sector growth and keeping a lid – if possible – on government spending.

If some big trade deals are announced, markets may first break to new all-time highs before the next pullback instead.

If anything, that suggests that markets are rapidly coming to an inflection point this summer. And why the Federal Reserve is hesitant to make any changes to interest rates here.

~ Addison

P.S. As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

How To Know When It’s the Top
Things You Cannot Unsee

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt. 

Things You Cannot Unsee
1998, Redux

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

1998, Redux
Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

Socialism Whacked