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Ripple Effect

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 3, 2025 • 52 second read


tariffstrade deals

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is more than half over – just 35 days remain.

Despite some positive headlines driving retail investors into the stock market, few significant deals have been inked.

Market investors aren’t the only ones who remain bullish. Betting markets also see a 66% chance — two-to-one odds — that President Trump will remove reciprocal tariffs.

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If the markets are wrong, we could be in for another round of what we call the Great Fire – part of President Trump’s plans for a Great Reset of the U.S. economy focused on private-sector growth and keeping a lid – if possible – on government spending.

If some big trade deals are announced, markets may first break to new all-time highs before the next pullback instead.

If anything, that suggests that markets are rapidly coming to an inflection point this summer. And why the Federal Reserve is hesitant to make any changes to interest rates here.

~ Addison

P.S. As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window
Correlation Breakdown

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.  

Correlation Breakdown
David v. Goliath in Davos

February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The most important moment in finance this week didn’t happen in a committee room or on cable television. It took place over coffee last week in Davos.

Brian Armstrong, the founder and CEO of Coinbase, was mid-conversation with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair when Jamie Dimon stepped in, pointed a finger, and said, “You are full of s—.”

Dimon wasn’t debating crypto theory. He was defending deposits.

Armstrong had spent the week accusing large banks of leaning on lawmakers to kneecap digital-asset legislation that threatens their core franchise. Dimon, whose firm sits atop the U.S. deposit pile, heard enough. According to people familiar with the exchange, he told Armstrong to stop lying on television.

David v. Goliath in Davos
Bitcoin Gets Taken to the Woodshed

February 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin is now selling off at a pace last seen at bear-market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.

Our trading channel was buzzing yesterday. Traders are actively seeking the bottom and trying to plot a way back in!

Indeed, bitcoin is rebounding and back up to $68,000 in today’s trading. Nail-biting stuff.

Bitcoin Gets Taken to the Woodshed