Markets Still Bet on a Deal

President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is more than half over – just 35 days remain.

Despite some positive headlines driving retail investors into the stock market, few significant deals have been inked.

Market investors aren’t the only ones who remain bullish. Betting markets also see a 66% chance — two-to-one odds — that President Trump will remove reciprocal tariffs.

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If the markets are wrong, we could be in for another round of what we call the Great Fire – part of President Trump’s plans for a Great Reset of the U.S. economy focused on private-sector growth and keeping a lid – if possible – on government spending.

If some big trade deals are announced, markets may first break to new all-time highs before the next pullback instead.

If anything, that suggests that markets are rapidly coming to an inflection point this summer. And why the Federal Reserve is hesitant to make any changes to interest rates here.

~ Addison

P.S. As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is more than half over – just 35 days remain.

Despite some positive headlines driving retail investors into the stock market, few significant deals have been inked.

Market investors aren’t the only ones who remain bullish. Betting markets also see a 66% chance — two-to-one odds — that President Trump will remove reciprocal tariffs.

Turn Your Images On

If some big trade deals are announced, markets may first break to new all-time highs before the next pullback instead.

If anything, that suggests that markets are rapidly coming to an inflection point this summer. And why the Federal Reserve is hesitant to make any changes to interest rates here.

~ Addison

P.S. As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.