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Ripple Effect

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

Addison WigginAddison Wiggin

June 3, 2025 • 52 second read


tariffstrade deals

Markets Still Bet on a Deal

President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is more than half over – just 35 days remain.

Despite some positive headlines driving retail investors into the stock market, few significant deals have been inked.

Market investors aren’t the only ones who remain bullish. Betting markets also see a 66% chance — two-to-one odds — that President Trump will remove reciprocal tariffs.

Turn Your Images On

If the markets are wrong, we could be in for another round of what we call the Great Fire – part of President Trump’s plans for a Great Reset of the U.S. economy focused on private-sector growth and keeping a lid – if possible – on government spending.

If some big trade deals are announced, markets may first break to new all-time highs before the next pullback instead.

If anything, that suggests that markets are rapidly coming to an inflection point this summer. And why the Federal Reserve is hesitant to make any changes to interest rates here.

~ Addison

P.S. As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Copper’s Clear Signal

August 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Copper’s Clear Signal
Market Crash Insurance Is Cheap

August 14, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Market Crash Insurance Is Cheap
Beware: Financial Innovation In AI

August 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

Beware: Financial Innovation In AI
Signs of a Late-Stage Bull Market

August 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.

Signs of a Late-Stage Bull Market