Markets Hate Thursdays and Fridays

It’s not just the economy that’s breaking into a K-shape: The stock market has been K-shaped this year too.

Early week trading days have delivered far higher returns than the last two days of the week:

Turn Your Images On

Your thoughts on the market are likely based on the day of the week, given the
variation in average daily return. (Source: Carson)

Stocks have developed a habit of selling off into the weekend before rebounding this year.

One big explanation might be that traders don’t want to be leveraged going into two days where the market’s closed in New York – but stay open online.

Any random Trump tweet can and has moved the market!

Ostensibly, if the weekend is quiet, stocks can recoup their Thursday/Friday declines.

Whatever happens, if you’ve been following our guidance to “panic now and avoid the rush,” you should already be comfortable even with the market’s sharp move lower yesterday.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s call on Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg – covered much of the fear rippling through markets today.

While the government closure is over, the real challenge now is in economic data – or the lack thereof. That’s increasing the chances of a Fed pause in lowering interest rates in December, which in turn is sending asset prices lower.

With the December rate cut in limbo, we still see a bigger push to lower interest rates in early 2026 – designed to juice the economy and stock market into the midterms.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

It’s not just the economy that’s breaking into a K-shape: The stock market has been K-shaped this year too.

Early week trading days have delivered far higher returns than the last two days of the week:

Turn Your Images On

Your thoughts on the market are likely based on the day of the week, given the
variation in average daily return. (Source: Carson)

Stocks have developed a habit of selling off into the weekend before rebounding this year.

One big explanation might be that traders don’t want to be leveraged going into two days where the market’s closed in New York – but stay open online.

Any random Trump tweet can and has moved the market!

Ostensibly, if the weekend is quiet, stocks can recoup their Thursday/Friday declines.

Whatever happens, if you’ve been following our guidance to “panic now and avoid the rush,” you should already be comfortable even with the market’s sharp move lower yesterday.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s call on Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg – covered much of the fear rippling through markets today.

With the December rate cut in limbo, we still see a bigger push to lower interest rates in early 2026 – designed to juice the economy and stock market into the midterms.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.