Markets Hate Thursdays and Fridays

November 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 25 second read

It’s not just the economy that’s breaking into a K-shape: The stock market has been K-shaped this year too.

Early week trading days have delivered far higher returns than the last two days of the week:

Turn Your Images On

Your thoughts on the market are likely based on the day of the week, given the
variation in average daily return. (Source: Carson)

Stocks have developed a habit of selling off into the weekend before rebounding this year.

One big explanation might be that traders don’t want to be leveraged going into two days where the market’s closed in New York – but stay open online.

Any random Trump tweet can and has moved the market!

Ostensibly, if the weekend is quiet, stocks can recoup their Thursday/Friday declines.

Whatever happens, if you’ve been following our guidance to “panic now and avoid the rush,” you should already be comfortable even with the market’s sharp move lower yesterday.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s call on Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg – covered much of the fear rippling through markets today.

While the government closure is over, the real challenge now is in economic data – or the lack thereof. That’s increasing the chances of a Fed pause in lowering interest rates in December, which in turn is sending asset prices lower.

With the December rate cut in limbo, we still see a bigger push to lower interest rates in early 2026 – designed to juice the economy and stock market into the midterms.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Ripple Effect

Markets Hate Thursdays and Fridays

Addison Wiggin

November 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 25 second read

market structure

It’s not just the economy that’s breaking into a K-shape: The stock market has been K-shaped this year too.

Early week trading days have delivered far higher returns than the last two days of the week:

Turn Your Images On

Your thoughts on the market are likely based on the day of the week, given the
variation in average daily return. (Source: Carson)

Stocks have developed a habit of selling off into the weekend before rebounding this year.

One big explanation might be that traders don’t want to be leveraged going into two days where the market’s closed in New York – but stay open online.

Any random Trump tweet can and has moved the market!

Ostensibly, if the weekend is quiet, stocks can recoup their Thursday/Friday declines.

Whatever happens, if you’ve been following our guidance to “panic now and avoid the rush,” you should already be comfortable even with the market’s sharp move lower yesterday.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s call on Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg – covered much of the fear rippling through markets today.

With the December rate cut in limbo, we still see a bigger push to lower interest rates in early 2026 – designed to juice the economy and stock market into the midterms.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Joe Withrow: The Hollow Class, Part III

November 13, 2025 • Andrew Packer

What we’ve seen since 2008 is nothing short of a theft of the commons. Except it happened in little pieces that seemed unrelated at the time. But if we look at the story holistically, it all comes together.

When we step back and view the entire picture, what emerges is not just a story of market excesses and economic shifts. What we see is the gutting of middle America – be it intentional or otherwise.

Now the question is – are we going to see the restoration of the American middle class in the coming years… or are we going to watch everything devolve into a modern redux of the War Between the States, more commonly but mistakenly known as the American Civil War?

Performative Clowns

November 13, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Today’s Washington isn’t governed so much as stage-managed.

Politicians don’t solve problems; they perform them.

The current fixation is affordability — a word that will be repeated ad nauseam from now through the 2026 midterms, until it becomes as meaningless as “bipartisan.”

The script hasn’t changed in decades: promise relief, pass a law that raises costs, blame capitalism, hold hearings, fundraise, repeat.

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

November 13, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

Beneath the headlines, we’re starting to see the kind of financial gymnastics — circular lending, balance-sheet origami, and creative “partnerships” — that usually signal the boom is running out of breath.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

The Hollow Class, Part II

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As interest rates fell, investors swarmed into real estate, lured by yields and the illusion that home prices never fell. Wall Street’s private-label securitizers were soon packaging everything from pristine mortgages to what were effectively loans scribbled on napkins, thus turning them into bonds that glowed like gold — until you looked too closely.

For their part, the regulators and ratings agencies conveniently looked away and allowed the bubble to grow. Fannie Mae watched the frenzy from the sidelines at first.

The company’s mandate — written in law — was not to chase profits but to promote affordable housing. That is to say, to make sure that teachers, nurses, and other first-time buyers could own their own homes and unlock the American Dream.

But as Wall Street flooded the market with high-risk mortgage products, political pressure mounted. Congress demanded that Fannie “do its part” for low and moderate-income families.

Joe Withrow: The Hollow Class, Part III

November 13, 2025 • Andrew Packer

Performative Clowns

November 13, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Today’s Washington isn’t governed so much as stage-managed.

Politicians don’t solve problems; they perform them.

The current fixation is affordability — a word that will be repeated ad nauseam from now through the 2026 midterms, until it becomes as meaningless as “bipartisan.”

The script hasn’t changed in decades: promise relief, pass a law that raises costs, blame capitalism, hold hearings, fundraise, repeat.

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

November 13, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

The Hollow Class, Part II

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For their part, the regulators and ratings agencies conveniently looked away and allowed the bubble to grow. Fannie Mae watched the frenzy from the sidelines at first.

But as Wall Street flooded the market with high-risk mortgage products, political pressure mounted. Congress demanded that Fannie “do its part” for low and moderate-income families.