“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”
–Donald J. Trump
January 8, 2025— Supporters of Trump’s ambition in Greenland, which he elaborated on at length at a Mar-a-lago press conference yesterday, apparently included Russian nationalists.
This morning from CNBC:
Kremlin propagandist Solovyov, an ardent supporter of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, commented that, “what Trump is doing benefits us greatly,” adding that the president-elect was “totally destroying any illusions that anyone might have still had about the summit of democracies, about respecting opinions of NATO allies.”
“It’s like he’s saying, “Who are all of you? You’re all nobodies. I will talk to Putin and Xi Jinping. As for you, who are you? Deliver Greenland. He is a great guy, an awesome guy,” he added.
Denmark has claimed the poorly-translated autonomous region of Greenland (it’s mostly ice) since 1814 following the Napoleonic Wars. Denmark finally added the land and its residents to the Danish constitution in 1953, in the wake of Nazi occupation during World War II.
That was all well and good when the U.S. supported Denmark, and the NATO Alliance shielding it militarily.
Under Trump, those assertions are now in question. And Trump, as he outlined yesterday, has plans for a stronger direct influence of the U.S. in Greenland, over the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of, er, Mexico.
Trump’s vision for a 21st century application of the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere includes the glaciers covering much of the sedimentary island most people only marvel at on a map once or twice a year.
Once in Greenland, the only way to get around is by boat or helicopter. Top image: the deck outside my room at the Arctic Hotel in Illusiat, the iceberg in the distance is 11 miles long and has been anchored there for generations. Bottom images, left to right: Addison on a boat to a nearby village for dinner at a Michelin star restaurant (yeah, weird, right?); Brett Stephens taking photographs at one of the first known human encampments in the Illusiatt region; our helicopter, used to get up on the ice sheet and visit a scientist encampment first established in 1957.
We visited Greenland in 2022 as part of a scientific expedition lead by our friend and fellow reader John Englander.
John is the director and CEO of Rising Seas Institute. On our mission, we spent two weeks learning about the science of measuring the melting glaciers and what their impact will likely be on rising sea levels globally.
Interesting stuff. And while it’s not the focus of today’s missive, you may be interested to read this write up by Brett Stephens, a columnist for the New York Times, who was inadvertently my travel buddy on the trip. Brett’s article focuses mostly on the disaster of what passes as climate change policy across many political jurisdictions.
Brett’s opinion piece is excellent. You can read a graphically augmented version produced by the New York Times Magazine, here: Yes, Greenland’s Ice Is Melting, But…
Greenland has hosted the U.S. in its military efforts since the start of the Cold War, and few places are colder. So why is there a rush to strike a real estate deal now?
Two ideas come to mind.
While we were on our excursion, we tracked the CEO of a exploration firm called Blue Jay Mining. A London-based company that explored and developed precious and base metals in Greenland, Finland, and the United Kingdom. Eric Sondergaard laid out for us the project they had invested in on Disko Island, Greenland’s largest, off the coast of Illusiat, where the largest and most accessible glaciers are.
Blue Jay (now rebranded as 30Mile, and trades on the London penny shares market) was developing a project with KoBold Metals, an AI-driven mining startup backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos. Last Friday, January 3, Kobold announced they’d secured $537 million in its latest Series C funding round.
The latest funding round gives the Berkeley-based company a valuation of $2.96 billion and fresh capital to pursue ambitious goals in the critical minerals sector. Blue Jay, or 30Mile, forms part of the exploration effort for cobalt, titanium oxide, lithium and iron. Sometimes they find gold, silver and nickel riding alongside the deposits.
These are the rare earths essential in every modern gadget.
Without them, the smartphone in your pocket isn’t smart at all. And your modern car, whether gas, hybrid, or fully electric, may as well be propelled with your feet, Fred Flintstone style.
Cobalt is a huge part of the equation for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, and it’s usually mostly found in Africa, where China has been building up resource infrastructure for decades.
You can just imagine that when billionaires congregate in Mar-a-Lago they’re more than happy to hear Trump throw some of his public mandate to Make The Western Hemisphere Great Again, especially Greenland. The Arctic region is one of the last proverbial frontiers.
Trump’s announcement comes replete with the usual mountain of speculation on whether he’s bluffing or distracting the press from another cockamamy idea he’ll advance next week. Reason Roundup speculated on such this morning:
A 1951 treaty gives America control over Greenland’s defense. It’s interesting and fair to mull whether such commitments should be rolled back, made more forceful, or changed. I don’t think troops will be marching into the Arctic anytime soon, nor taking the Panama Canal.
Like much of what Trump says, he may, in fact, be anchoring—starting with the craziest possible version, far from what he hopes to achieve, knowing it will need to be pared back—and laying out his starting position for negotiations, knowing he will end up with something much more mild (lesser fees for American ships going through the Panama Canal, for example). Maybe I’m giving him too much benefit of the doubt; unlike much of the news media, I have linked to a full transcript of his comments so that you, reader, can judge what you think of the remarks. Judge for yourself!
Whatever the case, Trump’s announcement has the developed world hot and bothered about resources beneath the ice sheets.
If you read between the lines, it’s a clear sign that commodities such as rare earths should be on your radar, if not in your investment portfolio. The hullabaloo over Greenland comes as we’re putting together research on the commodities key to the global tech trends underway today. In-house we’re tentatively calling it the “Chip Wars.” It’ll be ready for you in a few weeks.
Regards,
Addison Wiggin,
Grey Swan
P.S. “It has been estimated that there are more than 38 million tons of rare earth deposits in Greenland,” Michael Snyder writes today. “Who will end up benefitting from those deposits? Will it be the U.S. or will it be China?”
For his own speculative effort on deciphering the realpolitik inherent in Trump’s announcement, check out his piece on Substack: What Is The Economic Value Of Greenland And Why Does Trump Want It So Badly?
Addison note: We’ve received a number of thoughtful responses to Scott P.’s eloquent evisceration of the Trump agenda. After we parse through them, you’ll have a chance to review them for yourself right here in the Grey Swan daily missive.
Thanks for reading. And as always, you can send your own comments on the Grey Swan here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
