Buy Bitcoin Before, During, and After Election Day

Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

We’re just one Scaramucci away from Election Day 2024.

As a refresher, a Scaramucci is 11 days. Longer than a week, shorter than a fortnight.

It’s a term that jokingly came up during President Trump’s (first?) term. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci joined the White House staff, but only lasted for 11 days. Amazingly, he only tied the record for shortest tenure on staff.

While Scaramucci was a poor fit for the Trump team, his investment record is far better.

A huge part of that success has come from investing in bitcoin early.

Today, Scaramucci reports that 55% of his wealth is in bitcoin. Don’t worry; you don’t need to go that far to see great returns. Simply look at making a small move today.

Scaramucci noted that if, in 2010, you had allocated just 1% of your wealth to bitcoin and kept the other 99% in cash, you would have outperformed every other asset class. Or every top stock of the past 15 years.

A report from Bitwise noted that between 2014 and 2020, a 60-40 portfolio split between stocks and bonds would have returned 26%. If investors reduced each of those positions by half a percentage and put just 1% into bitcoin, the return would have jumped to 34%, 31% higher.

From just 1%!

A 5% allocation over the same period would have resulted in 65% returns, a full 150% better.

That’s the power of asset allocation. You don’t need much in volatile assets like bitcoin. But if you don’t have any exposure, you’re missing out on a tremendous opportunity.

Why Bitcoin Will Continue to Beat Fiat

Remember, bitcoin is a piece of code. It doesn’t have a monetary policy. Or a marketing team. A few people volunteer to work on projects related to it.

But it’s largely a self-sustaining project, driven by people who want to run the bitcoin code on their own, creating a node in the network in the process.

Bitcoin uses a proof-of-work model. One way of looking at that is that it takes real-world computational power and electricity to run.

That helps derive bitcoin’s value. It also helps electric utilities manage their baseload power needs, and allows energy companies to use what would have been “stranded” energy.

Comparatively, what’s the U.S. dollar? Or the future BRICS bucks? Those are fiat currencies. They can be created at a whim. In the digital age, there’s zero cost to creating them. At least printing physical money required ink and paper.

Their purchasing power is subject to change based on political needs, not economic ones. That’s why fiat currencies have a long-term downward trend. And why their purchasing power will continue to decline.

And those who run those fiat currencies like to change the rules all the time. Just ask Russia, who’s been pushing for a BRICS Buck in part because it was kicked out of the SWIFT payments system.

When you save in fiat currency, you’re losing money to inflation. Sometimes quickly, sometimes not. When you save in bitcoin, you have wild price swings. But over time, the swings higher more than make up for the short-term volatility.

Bitcoin is a lesson in transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

Your Key Move Before Election Day

There’s no excuse not to own any bitcoin. There are 11 ETFs that buy it for you, so you can hold it in a retirement account.

You can also go to Coinbase to get started.

You can also set up an account using a bitcoin-only exchange. I use Swan Bitcoin. I have also met some of the team at River, another highly-regarded bitcoin-only exchange. Both allow you to set up recurring buys and self-custody if you so choose.

But if you still own none, your allocation is zero.

You need to get off of zero. 1-5% is a good start.

Even if it’s just 1%, the returns could be huge. Future price estimates for bitcoin within the next 10 years range from around $500,000 to $1,000,000.

While the percentage returns are lower than in bitcoin’s early years, the ease of investing today means you can still benefit. And from current prices, a 10X or 20X return on an asset will still beat whatever future inflation comes down the pike.

The upcoming election offers investors little choice in terms of monetary policy. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are big spenders. It’s only a question of where that spending is going.

We stand a very real chance of seeing a repeat of the 1970s’ “double dip” inflation.

And as with the 1970s, the second wave higher could be far worse than the first. If that happens, owning gold and other tangible commodities, should protect your wealth. But bitcoin could grow that wealth in real terms.

Since fiat currencies can be printed to infinity, investors need to own real assets as an escape valve. Bitcoin is one of them. It doesn’t need to be a huge part of your portfolio. But those who have been investing in it for a while, from Anthony Scaramucci to Michael Saylor over at MicroStrategy (MSTR) continue to up their stake.

For now, just to get ahead of any uncertainty in 2025 that could see massive money printing or resurgent inflation, grab some bitcoin. And keep dollar-cost averaging to build your stack. ~~ Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Buy Bitcoin Before, During, and After Election Day

Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

We’re just one Scaramucci away from Election Day 2024.

As a refresher, a Scaramucci is 11 days. Longer than a week, shorter than a fortnight.

While Scaramucci was a poor fit for the Trump team, his investment record is far better.

A huge part of that success has come from investing in bitcoin early.

Today, Scaramucci reports that 55% of his wealth is in bitcoin. Don’t worry; you don’t need to go that far to see great returns. Simply look at making a small move today.

From just 1%!

A 5% allocation over the same period would have resulted in 65% returns, a full 150% better.

That’s the power of asset allocation. You don’t need much in volatile assets like bitcoin. But if you don’t have any exposure, you’re missing out on a tremendous opportunity.

Why Bitcoin Will Continue to Beat Fiat

Remember, bitcoin is a piece of code. It doesn’t have a monetary policy. Or a marketing team. A few people volunteer to work on projects related to it.

But it’s largely a self-sustaining project, driven by people who want to run the bitcoin code on their own, creating a node in the network in the process.

Bitcoin uses a proof-of-work model. One way of looking at that is that it takes real-world computational power and electricity to run.

That helps derive bitcoin’s value. It also helps electric utilities manage their baseload power needs, and allows energy companies to use what would have been “stranded” energy.

And those who run those fiat currencies like to change the rules all the time. Just ask Russia, who’s been pushing for a BRICS Buck in part because it was kicked out of the SWIFT payments system.

Bitcoin is a lesson in transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

Your Key Move Before Election Day

There’s no excuse not to own any bitcoin. There are 11 ETFs that buy it for you, so you can hold it in a retirement account.

You can also go to Coinbase to get started.

But if you still own none, your allocation is zero.

You need to get off of zero. 1-5% is a good start.

Even if it’s just 1%, the returns could be huge. Future price estimates for bitcoin within the next 10 years range from around $500,000 to $1,000,000.

The upcoming election offers investors little choice in terms of monetary policy. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are big spenders. It’s only a question of where that spending is going.

We stand a very real chance of seeing a repeat of the 1970s’ “double dip” inflation.

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

Senator Rand Paul, (R. KY), who was the sole Republican to vote against a continuing resolution, seems to care about the actual finances of the government. “I would never vote for a bill that added $2 trillion in national debt,” Paul said in various interviews over the weekend.

The $2 trillion he’s referring to is the lesser of two proposals made by the national parties… and would accrue during this next fiscal year.

Oy.

We liked what Liz Wolfe at Reason wrote on Friday, so we’ll repeat it here: “One of the dirty little secrets of every shutdown is that everything remains mostly fine. Private markets could easily replace many federal functions.”

It’s a strange kind of confidence — one where Wall Street soars while Washington goes dark.

The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.

The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

Back in the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we recall mass layoffs were driving desperation.

Today, unemployment is relatively low, if climbing.

Affordability is much more of an issue. Food, rent, healthcare, and childcare are all rising faster than wages. Households aren’t jobless; they’re stretched. Job “quits” are at crisis-level lows.

In addition to the top 10% of earners, consumer spending is still strong. Not necessarily because of prosperity, but because households are taking extra shifts, hustling gigs, working late into the night, and using credit cards. The trends hold up demand but hollow out savings.

It’s the quiet form of financial repression. In an era of fiscal dominance, savers see easy returns clipped, workers stretch hours just to stay even, and wealth slips upward into assets while daily life grows harder to afford.

The $2 trillion he’s referring to is the lesser of two proposals made by the national parties… and would accrue during this next fiscal year.

Oy.

It’s a strange kind of confidence — one where Wall Street soars while Washington goes dark.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

Back in the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we recall mass layoffs were driving desperation.

Today, unemployment is relatively low, if climbing.