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Ripple Effect

Liquidity Party!

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read


SOFR

Liquidity Party!

Some overlooked financial indicators never make mainstream headlines. The secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) is one of them.

Maybe now it will – because it’s collapsing:

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Overnight bank lending rates are collapsing. (Source: FRED)

SOFR measures the overnight rate – annualized – that banks pay to borrow cash. Plunging rates will make it easier for the financial system to lever up, take on and dole out more debt.

In plain English: there’s a new wave of easy money coming fast. We expect this will boost the already terrifying bull market even higher.

This is a perfect time to “panic now, and avoid the rush,” as we outline in our Plunge Protection Strategy.  Sell ⅓ or half of your positions into the buyer frenzy. Let the rest of your winners ride.

~ Addison

P.S. For a great overview of where we are in the AI “industrial” bubble, check out last week’s Grey Swan Live! chat with Harry Dent. Harry raved about the benefits AI will accrue to society. But also warns investors should be prepared in advance for a crash and recession.

“Stock market crashes and economic recessions,” Dent says, “are a good thing!”

It’s what the government does to fight them that causes problems in people’s lives.

To fully understand Harry’s cold, hard point of view, watch the replay here:

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Details on this week’s Grey Swan Live! coming soon. Stay tuned.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  send them here.


A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress
Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment
Breaking: Government Budgets

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.

Breaking: Government Budgets
Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.

America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.

There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.

Markets, predictably, shrugged.

Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.

Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map