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Ripple Effect

Liquidity Party!

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read


SOFR

Liquidity Party!

Some overlooked financial indicators never make mainstream headlines. The secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) is one of them.

Maybe now it will – because it’s collapsing:

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Overnight bank lending rates are collapsing. (Source: FRED)

SOFR measures the overnight rate – annualized – that banks pay to borrow cash. Plunging rates will make it easier for the financial system to lever up, take on and dole out more debt.

In plain English: there’s a new wave of easy money coming fast. We expect this will boost the already terrifying bull market even higher.

This is a perfect time to “panic now, and avoid the rush,” as we outline in our Plunge Protection Strategy.  Sell ⅓ or half of your positions into the buyer frenzy. Let the rest of your winners ride.

~ Addison

P.S. For a great overview of where we are in the AI “industrial” bubble, check out last week’s Grey Swan Live! chat with Harry Dent. Harry raved about the benefits AI will accrue to society. But also warns investors should be prepared in advance for a crash and recession.

“Stock market crashes and economic recessions,” Dent says, “are a good thing!”

It’s what the government does to fight them that causes problems in people’s lives.

To fully understand Harry’s cold, hard point of view, watch the replay here:

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Details on this week’s Grey Swan Live! coming soon. Stay tuned.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  send them here.


Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Altman’s claim is that not only will people get more done with less with AI, they will be happier because their work is easier and…more fun. This follows a report from Anthropic, responsible for the Claude AI, that said AI increases productivity.

I will say I’m skeptical. But we’ve been told the nature of exponential change is that it comes at you faster than you can measure or observe. And if that is true, it will have consequences in 2026 for employees and investors. Big ones.

For employees–those who are not replaced by automated processes and robots–it will mean secure employment and higher wages. A small number of winners getting richer.

Dan Denning: The 2026 Battle Royale
The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

American consumers don’t feel – or are at least unaware of – monetary nuance. They’re just getting the bill.

Trump declared last night that “affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,” dismissing the term as a “Democrat scam”— this despite recently proclaiming
himself the “Affordability President” on Truth Social.

That’s the current state of political messaging on cost-of-living: part whiplash, part vaudeville. But voters aren’t confused. Grocery prices are still 30% higher than 2020. Tariffs add daily friction. Utilities, rent, houses, tuition, healthcare continue their daily grind upward.

The Inflation Episodes — Act II, Featuring Silver, Gold and Dollar 2.0
The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds

December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

During a Fed rate cut cycle, bond yields follow, which typically means bond prices tick higher. If you buy bonds now, you’ll be getting in ahead of the crowd.

And if this tech wreck shapes up anything like 2000-01, investors will want to get out fast. Despite the debt mess in Washington, bonds will again look “safe.”

One minor bonus: if you buy now, you’ll lock in higher yields before the next Fed rate cut, which is expected to come one week from today.

The “New” Contrarian Case for Bonds
American Life: Less Ordinary

December 2, 2025 • Bill Bonner

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

American Life: Less Ordinary