GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

Liquidity Party!

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read


SOFR

Liquidity Party!

Some overlooked financial indicators never make mainstream headlines. The secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) is one of them.

Maybe now it will – because it’s collapsing:

Turn Your Images On

Overnight bank lending rates are collapsing. (Source: FRED)

SOFR measures the overnight rate – annualized – that banks pay to borrow cash. Plunging rates will make it easier for the financial system to lever up, take on and dole out more debt.

In plain English: there’s a new wave of easy money coming fast. We expect this will boost the already terrifying bull market even higher.

This is a perfect time to “panic now, and avoid the rush,” as we outline in our Plunge Protection Strategy.  Sell ⅓ or half of your positions into the buyer frenzy. Let the rest of your winners ride.

~ Addison

P.S. For a great overview of where we are in the AI “industrial” bubble, check out last week’s Grey Swan Live! chat with Harry Dent. Harry raved about the benefits AI will accrue to society. But also warns investors should be prepared in advance for a crash and recession.

“Stock market crashes and economic recessions,” Dent says, “are a good thing!”

It’s what the government does to fight them that causes problems in people’s lives.

To fully understand Harry’s cold, hard point of view, watch the replay here:

Turn Your Images On

Details on this week’s Grey Swan Live! coming soon. Stay tuned.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  send them here.


The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized
The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed
Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning,  the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Waiting for Jerome
Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026