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Beneath the Surface

Jobs and Real Estate Head South

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 8, 2024 • 4 minute, 57 second read


Jobs and Real Estate Head South

“You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”

– Attributed to Ayn Rand


[Special Reminder: In case you missed our recent announcement, The Essential Investor has merged with legacy contributors to Agora Financial. The new, larger, more inclusive project is called The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. If you’re interested in the scope and benefits of our new endeavor, please see what prompted us to merge here. If you’ve been a member of The Essential Investor, please keep an eye out for your new benefits.]

July 8, 2024 — “You don’t think you should mention the name of María Elvira Salazar, R-Fla?” writes Grey Swan reader Jeff B.  “Why not? ‘cause she’s a Republican. You guys are so pretentious.”

Jeff, you’re clearly not reading very closely. We don’t have a horse in the race in November.

Your comment: “On to Fascism!” makes little sense in the context of the petty disagreements between Democrats and Republicans during this election year. The U.S.,an aging empire, has much bigger worries than sound-byte, back-room politics that pass for governance today.

Unless, of course, you subscribe to the theory that a nameless faceless “deep state” of entrenched bureaucrats truly run the government in collusion with international corporate interests who spend billions to get their puppet and party in office.

Oh wait… hmn.

Anyway, the short holiday week gave investors cheer, as it often does. There’s just something that feels downright unpatriotic about markets declining the week of Independence Day.

Friday’s job data should have been a splash of cold water. The labor market continues to slow.

On its face, that’s bad news. But under today’s investment calculus, a weakening economy is more likely to get rate cuts off those pesky 15-year highs. So bad news is good news, at least for now.

But the reality is, bad news is always bad news. It just sometimes faces a long period where investors don’t want to face reality.

Looking at the latest data from the labor and real estate market, Grey Swan contributing member John Rubino gives us a much-needed post-holiday dose of reality about the economy. Enjoy ~~ Addison

Recession Watch: Jobs and Real Estate Head South
John Rubino, John Rubino’s substack

US financial headlines remain in Goldilocks territory (prompting all those “Why don’t Americans know how good they have it??” diatribes from the MSM). But under the surface, the drumbeat of negative data continues. Today, let’s consider jobs and real estate:

Jobs

Official reports of plentiful jobs and low unemployment are possible because the government is on a hiring binge. But over here in the private sector, job openings have been falling steadily since 2021.

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And full-time employment is actually contracting. According to economist David Rosenberg:

The YoY trend in full-time jobs is running at -1.2%, a big swing from +1.7% a year ago and +5.1% two years back. This not only represents a significant loss of momentum but is a fool-proof recession indicator. There is nothing soft about this landing.

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As the past few years’ inflation forces more people to put day-to-day life on plastic, credit card defaults are spiking, especially for the young.

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Real Estate

The commercial real estate bust is proceeding toward its inevitable firey end. Office vacancy rates now exceed Great Recession levels, with about half a trillion dollars of unrealized losses currently marooned on bank balance sheets.

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And the bust is spreading beyond offices.

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Banks, already on the hook for so much of the above, are increasingly reluctant to throw good money after bad.

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Last but not least, housing is frozen. From prolific chart maker Game of Trades:

BEWARE: Buying conditions in the US housing market have collapsed, reaching levels only seen 2 times since 1960:

– 1974

– 1981

Both instances ended in a recession.

The housing market is a key leading indicator of the business cycle. And it tends to react very quickly to interest rate changes.

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Are We Already There?

The start date of a recession is usually recognized after the fact. So it’s possible that the above — and the many other negative trends — are saying that we’re already there.  ~~ John Rubino, John Rubino’s substack




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So it goes,


Addison Wiggin
Founder, The Wiggin Sessions

P.S.  “Thank you for bringing light to our economy,” wrote member Cindy M. last week while we were taking a short break. “God Bless America and hoping you all had a Happy 4th of July.”

Meanwhile, a more urgent request from member Hans K. “the pay-out is in fast-depreciating US $$$?” asks member Hans Kerr. “Before I stake fast-fading fiat on UDN, I need to clear this doubt up — or find a less doubt-ridden escape tool.

“Thank you in advance for clearing the fog!”

No worries, Hans. We’re on the case. We address portfolio and investment concerns in the paid Grey Swan Investment Fraternity publications!

P.P.S. How did we get here? An alternative view of the financial, economic, and political history of the United States from Demise of the Dollar through Financial Reckoning Day and on to Empire of Debt— all three books are available in their third post-pandemic editions.

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(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites:Bookshop.org; Books-A-Million; or Target.)

Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


Adam O’Dell: Gold’s $5,000 Moment?

October 17, 2025 • Adam O'Dell

Regardless of anyone’s personal opinion on Trump, it’s clear that the international community is translating his “Putting America First” agenda as something more like “Every Man for Himself.” That could have a profound impact down the line, not just for our future trade prospects, but for the health of the economy and the U.S. dollar at large (which is still the world’s dominant reserve currency, for now).

At the same time, this is all very bullish for gold, as central banks are likely to continue buying for years to come. In this kind of situation, gold hitting $4,300 and continuing to rise higher was a foregone conclusion, and it’s clear that Trump’s agenda is locked in and unlikely to change.

Adam O’Dell: Gold’s $5,000 Moment?
A Credit Crisis Reprise

October 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Shares of regional banks and even investment bank Jefferies were hammered Thursday after fresh revelations from Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorp.

Zions dropped more than 13%, Western Alliance fell 10%, and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) plunged over 6%, with all but one member ending the session in the red. It’s not the size of the losses — it’s the pattern that’s unsettling, in what are ongoing ripple effects from the banking crisis that rocked regional banks in early 2023.

A Credit Crisis Reprise
The Banking Crisis That Was

October 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Yesterday, Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bank dropped 13% and 10% respectively, dragging the S&P 500 down with them.

In pre-market trade this morning, the broader banking sector also got whacked. JP Morgan was down 1.5%, while Citi fell 1.9% and Bank of America was down 2.9%. In Europe, meanwhile, the regional Stoxx Banking Index fell almost 3%.

The Federal Reserve stopped tracking “unrealized losses” at regional banks in 2022. But occasionally, a snippet of data will come to light, like this piece from the FDIC earlier this year.

The Banking Crisis That Was
How Much Gold Does China Really Have in 2025?

October 16, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

History’s “golden” rule will soon apply again.

How Much Gold Does China Really Have in 2025?