America’s Just 12.3% of the Problem

Last week, the total debt in the U.S. topped $37 trillion.

Of course, that debt doesn’t include what’s owed on transfer programs – think Social Security and Medicare. The real numbers without the accounting gimmickry are far worse.

But the U.S. isn’t alone. Surging debt levels are a global issue. Total world debt has topped $300 trillion:

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Total debt has been soaring at an unsustainable rate for nearly 30 years.

That makes America’s debt look piddling by comparison – a mere 12.3% of the total. It’s a global crisis waiting to happen.

But that’s not the issue as the Senate debates the “big, beautiful bill” ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend.

After a spike during the pandemic, U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is still over 120% – and climbing again.

Historically, no country that crossed the 130% debt-to-GDP ratio has been able to survive long enough to “grow its way out” of a debt crisis.

Therein lies the tension. The Trump Reset formula requires an extension of his first-term tax cuts, low and fair tariffs… and low interest rates.

It’s a tall order. And why he’s pushing to get economic growth on the table before the mid-term elections in November 2026. (To understand it all, we’ve prepared this research: Trump’s Great Reset).

~ Addison

The Next 9/11 Won’t Come from a Plane…

America is facing its greatest war threat in more than 80-years. But the next 9/11 won’t come from a plane. It’ll come from something that could wipe the entire continental U.S off the map. That’s why President Trump is secretly fast-tracking this top-secret $2.5 trillion defense initiative. It will make America untouchable. And could create generational wealth for early investors. Click here now to find out how.

P.S.: High debt is a feature of “fiat” money systems. Money printing leads to higher inflation and more money printing. Which, in turn, creates more inflation.

You get the idea. It’s a doom loop.

As you know, that’s why we like gold. Gold holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise here.

That said, with the stock market back to all-time highs and many headline fears disappearing, gold is likely to take a breather this summer… and give you a chance to buy in at a discount. Keep an eye out.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Last week, the total debt in the U.S. topped $37 trillion.

Of course, that debt doesn’t include what’s owed on transfer programs – think Social Security and Medicare. The real numbers without the accounting gimmickry are far worse.

But the U.S. isn’t alone. Surging debt levels are a global issue. Total world debt has topped $300 trillion:

Turn Your Images On

Total debt has been soaring at an unsustainable rate for nearly 30 years.

That makes America’s debt look piddling by comparison – a mere 12.3% of the total. It’s a global crisis waiting to happen.

But that’s not the issue as the Senate debates the “big, beautiful bill” ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend.

After a spike during the pandemic, U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is still over 120% – and climbing again.

Historically, no country that crossed the 130% debt-to-GDP ratio has been able to survive long enough to “grow its way out” of a debt crisis.

Therein lies the tension. The Trump Reset formula requires an extension of his first-term tax cuts, low and fair tariffs… and low interest rates.

~ Addison

The Next 9/11 Won’t Come from a Plane…

P.S.: High debt is a feature of “fiat” money systems. Money printing leads to higher inflation and more money printing. Which, in turn, creates more inflation.

You get the idea. It’s a doom loop.

As you know, that’s why we like gold. Gold holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise here.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.