America’s Just 12.3% of the Problem

Last week, the total debt in the U.S. topped $37 trillion.

Of course, that debt doesn’t include what’s owed on transfer programs – think Social Security and Medicare. The real numbers without the accounting gimmickry are far worse.

But the U.S. isn’t alone. Surging debt levels are a global issue. Total world debt has topped $300 trillion:

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Total debt has been soaring at an unsustainable rate for nearly 30 years.

That makes America’s debt look piddling by comparison – a mere 12.3% of the total. It’s a global crisis waiting to happen.

But that’s not the issue as the Senate debates the “big, beautiful bill” ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend.

After a spike during the pandemic, U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is still over 120% – and climbing again.

Historically, no country that crossed the 130% debt-to-GDP ratio has been able to survive long enough to “grow its way out” of a debt crisis.

Therein lies the tension. The Trump Reset formula requires an extension of his first-term tax cuts, low and fair tariffs… and low interest rates.

It’s a tall order. And why he’s pushing to get economic growth on the table before the mid-term elections in November 2026. (To understand it all, we’ve prepared this research: Trump’s Great Reset).

~ Addison

The Next 9/11 Won’t Come from a Plane…

America is facing its greatest war threat in more than 80-years. But the next 9/11 won’t come from a plane. It’ll come from something that could wipe the entire continental U.S off the map. That’s why President Trump is secretly fast-tracking this top-secret $2.5 trillion defense initiative. It will make America untouchable. And could create generational wealth for early investors. Click here now to find out how.

P.S.: High debt is a feature of “fiat” money systems. Money printing leads to higher inflation and more money printing. Which, in turn, creates more inflation.

You get the idea. It’s a doom loop.

As you know, that’s why we like gold. Gold holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise here.

That said, with the stock market back to all-time highs and many headline fears disappearing, gold is likely to take a breather this summer… and give you a chance to buy in at a discount. Keep an eye out.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Last week, the total debt in the U.S. topped $37 trillion.

Of course, that debt doesn’t include what’s owed on transfer programs – think Social Security and Medicare. The real numbers without the accounting gimmickry are far worse.

But the U.S. isn’t alone. Surging debt levels are a global issue. Total world debt has topped $300 trillion:

Turn Your Images On

Total debt has been soaring at an unsustainable rate for nearly 30 years.

That makes America’s debt look piddling by comparison – a mere 12.3% of the total. It’s a global crisis waiting to happen.

But that’s not the issue as the Senate debates the “big, beautiful bill” ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend.

After a spike during the pandemic, U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is still over 120% – and climbing again.

Historically, no country that crossed the 130% debt-to-GDP ratio has been able to survive long enough to “grow its way out” of a debt crisis.

Therein lies the tension. The Trump Reset formula requires an extension of his first-term tax cuts, low and fair tariffs… and low interest rates.

~ Addison

The Next 9/11 Won’t Come from a Plane…

P.S.: High debt is a feature of “fiat” money systems. Money printing leads to higher inflation and more money printing. Which, in turn, creates more inflation.

You get the idea. It’s a doom loop.

As you know, that’s why we like gold. Gold holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise here.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,’ runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today’s markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.

Fresh GDP data — the Commerce Department revised Q2 growth upward to 3.3% — fueling the rally. Investors cheered the “Goldilocks” read: strong enough to keep the music going, not hot enough (at least on paper) to derail hopes for a Fed pivot.

Even the oddball tickers joined in. Perhaps as fittingly as Lego, Build-A-Bear Workshop popped after beating earnings forecasts, on track for its fifth consecutive record year, thanks to digital expansion.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.