Japan’s Own Buyer of Last Resort… Sells

The story of the week last week was not Greenland or Davos drama, but Japan.

Japanese bonds fell to their lowest price in history. When prices fall, yields rise. Traders in New York and elsewhere globally are unwinding their “carry-trade” bets.

So, too, the Bank of Japan:

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Lower demand for Japanese bonds is pushing prices down and yields higher rapidly. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.

The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.

Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected – helped us rummage through collectivist politics… also a harbinger of things to come in the U.S. if New York’s Zohran Mamdani becomes the face of the Democratic Party in the midterms.

Joel also gave us a fresh primer on Investing At the End of the World as the Argentine market rapidly becomes deregulated and open for foreign investment in the country’s vast natural resources.

The replay will be up on the site for members soon.

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Later today — Friday, at 1 p.m. ET – Nick is back to help us cut your IRS tax bill in 2026.

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Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us on Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.

The story of the week last week was not Greenland or Davos drama, but Japan.

Japanese bonds fell to their lowest price in history. When prices fall, yields rise. Traders in New York and elsewhere globally are unwinding their “carry-trade” bets.

So, too, the Bank of Japan:

Turn Your Images On

Lower demand for Japanese bonds is pushing prices down and yields higher rapidly. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.

The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.

Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.

~ Addison

Joel also gave us a fresh primer on Investing At the End of the World as the Argentine market rapidly becomes deregulated and open for foreign investment in the country’s vast natural resources.

The replay will be up on the site for members soon.

Turn Your Images On

Later today — Friday, at 1 p.m. ET – Nick is back to help us cut your IRS tax bill in 2026.

Turn Your Images On

Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can:

Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
Shield your personal finances from trading risk.

Stay tuned for more details on how to join us on Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

With the United States conducting what the Pentagon politely calls an “operation” against Iranian military infrastructure, markets have had every reason to be panicky. Instead, the past week delivered something subtler…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.

The Federal Reserve can print money, but it can’t print oil. As energy prices surge and supply disruptions loom, the central bank may find itself with limited tools to fight inflation driven by real-world shortages.

The plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would leave the U.S. with its smallest stockpile of emergency oil in more than four decades. And with tensions simmering globally, the shrinking reserve raises uncomfortable questions about how prepared the U.S. is for the next supply disruption…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.