It’s Still Early Days for Gold

September 17, 2025 • 1 minute, 20 second read

The runaway winner for 2025 hasn’t been on-again, off-again big tech.

Rather, it’s been the trend higher in mining stocks – particularly gold stocks.

The sector as a whole has more than doubled, with the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF, GDX, up 103% year-to-date.

Good stuff, if you’re paying attention.

And there’s more runway ahead. A look at the weighting of gold compared to other stocks suggests there’s still a massive undervaluation:

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Gold mining shares remain well under their historic valuations. (Source: Statista)

With gold prices continuing to push higher – and with central bankers buying hand over fist – gold miners should continue to see expanding profits.

That’s in sharp contrast to the rest of the market, where any potential slowdown in AI could cause a break lower.

The Fed, bending to political winds, is likely to join its global counterparts in cutting interest rates today. There’s more yet to the story for gold and the gold miners – as we forecast a year ago.

~ Addison

P.S. Politics are exerting extreme pressure on money market funds, too.

This week on Grey Swan Live! with Adam O’Dell — at 2 p.m. ET, tomorrow, September 18, 2025 — we’ll be investigating the $10 trillion pile of cash sitting on the sidelines during the terrifying bull market on Wall Street.

Mr. O’Dell has been warning investors how impending changes to monetary policy are going to force savers out of cash and into the markets… or gold. More details to come.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

When Trust Runs Thin, Markets… Rally?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bloomberg’s September survey of economists found that the majority are “somewhat or extremely worried” that the Fed’s decisions will be influenced by political loyalties.

If that happens, borrowing costs for the U.S. government rise as risk premia creep into Treasury markets.

Public confidence is already threadbare.

In 2001, 74% of Americans trusted Alan Greenspan to do the right thing. In 2025, only 37% say the same of Jerome Powell. For the first time, trust in Trump to manage the economy is higher than trust in the Fed chair.

The Tech Meltup, Exhibit A

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overall, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 70, the low side of overbought territory — for the entire index.

“Fed rate cuts tomorrow are likely priced in,” writes portfolio director, Andrew Packer, “it may not trigger a selloff, but at these levels, investors may be disappointed with a .25 cut.”

Tech investors will remain bullish on the prospect of multiple rate cuts over the next few meetings.

But be wary of any indication the Fed tries to rebuff Trump’s overtures and, God forbid, remain independent tomorrow.

Plowshares into Swords

September 15, 2025 • Bill Bonner

The empire is in decline. Demographics, regulatory tightening, fake money and the mis-allocation of trillions of dollars (much of it on pointless wars) have sapped the vitality of the economy. The Federal government gets bigger and bigger, but there is no longer enough output to pay for it.

The interest on the debt alone takes more more than a trillion dollars a year. The US faces a financial crisis. And for the first time in history, our children face a poorer future.

The welfare state model no longer works; the center — consensual democracy — wobbles towards the extremes. What to do? Beat our plowshares into swords?